UHURU DIDN’T GET 50% IN 2013 – US ACADEMICS
Wednesday, February 12, 2014 – 00:00 — BY IBRAHIM ORUKO
AN exit poll commissioned by American academics indicates that no presidential candidate reached 50 percent in the March 2013 election. Details and analysis of the exit poll are contained in the latest issue of the Journal of East African Studies. The exit poll on March 4 interviewed 6,258 voters as they left 404 polling stations spread over all 47 counties. The enumerators randomly selected every second voter leaving polling stations. They had an 88 percent response rate on the interviews which were transmitted live on Android phones. The exit poll indicated that Raila Odinga received 40.9 per cent of the vote while Uhuru Kenyatta received 40.6 percent.
The authors of the article were Karen Ferree and Clark Gibson of University of California, and James Long of the University of Washington. On March 19, the IEBC declared that Uhuru won the election with 6,173,433 votes against Raila Odinga’s 5,340,546. Uhuru therefore surpassed the constitutional threshold of 50% by 4,100 votes giving him 50.07 percent of the votes. However the American academics wrote that the exit poll data was “highly suggestive of a deeply flawed electoral process and challenge claims that Kenyatta won a majority of votes in the first round.” “Exit polls represent important tools for verifying official vote counts,” the JEAS article states. “Unlike actual ballots, exit poll results are immune to ballot stuffing, tally manipulation, or technological failures in the counting system. Therefore they can reflect the vote more accurately than certified vote counts in corrupt elections,” states the article.
The American authors noted that the exit poll result was similar to the Ipsos Synovate poll ten days before the election which showed a statistical tie between Uhuru at 44.8 percent and Raila at 44.4 percent. The authors then interrogated why there was a 9.5 percent gap between their exit poll results and the final IEBC result. They dismissed the argument that “Kenyatta’s victory flowed from the high rate of registration” because the exit poll by definition only questioned those voters who were on the final register. They pointed out that the “official IEBC results show consistently high turnout in both Kenyatta and Odinga strongholds.” The academics doubted that the discrepancy could have been the result of last minute changes because exit polls “capture all last minute swings in support”. They noted that 12 percent of voters Refused to Answer (RTA) the exit poll. The academics analysed whether it was “plausible” that Uhuru won the 80 percent or more of the RTAs to get a simple majority on the first round. The academics stated that “the coefficients on the political controls are most consistent with political neutrality among RTA voters.” Using a special “multiple imputation method”, the academics said, “our estimates suggest that 40.2 percent of the RTAs went to Odinga, another 40.5 percent to Kenyatta, and 19.3 percent to other candidates.” “Overall we estimate that Odinga took 45.3 percent of the vote and Kenyatta 45.6 percent, a statistical tie,” the JEAS authors state.
The authors also said that 10 percent of the exit poll respondents expected the IEBC to have problems with the count. They pointed out that the IEBC result was marred by the failure of Electronic Voter Identification Devices, the failure of polling station officials to report by cellphones, and the lack of transparency in the official tallying process. The JEAS authors also pointed out that the Elections Observation Group (ELOG) observers found that the electronic poll book failed in 55 percent of voting streams, 17 percent of ballot boxes were violated during voting , and 4 percent of ballot boxes were not shown to be empty before voting. The ELOG figures for Parallel Vote Tabulation gave 49.7 percent for Uhuru and 43.3 percent for Raila. The American academics said that ELOG “perhaps overstates the case” when saying that their tabulation “verified” the IEBC results as it was within their margin of error. – See more at: http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-154815/uhuru-didnt-get-50-2013-us-academics#sthash.M5k4AMxc.dpuf
Uhuru was rigged by Nis (NSIS) Kdf and CIDs all kenya security organs under gema.Kikuyu Ruling -class of very rich (wealth) Anus-Thinking Kikuyus who are really brutal against all Kenyan People (including millions of the poor Kikuyu’s Low-class holoi-poloi ! The final solution to Kenya today tomorrow and yesterday is only Revolution that will transform this Raped ,molested stripped father-land by the Compradors, Lackeys, Boot-lickers,(Wanyaparas) whose Royalty is to Imperialist western& Communists Masters.Let us remind them Kenya people’s intrests must come first before any other God! We as Kenyans must abandon tribalism ,hate see collectivelly our suffering as brothers and sisters Unite and carry-out a Revolution that will Overthrow these Brutal Anti-Kenyan-People’s Class of Rulers that has chained over 40 millions of oppressed people of Kenya regardless tribe. Let us unite as brothers and sisters and bring down this Uhuru&Ruto Devilish Mzungu licking ass- traitor rogue government led war criminals build on sand!
Kibaki /Magaryan /Sagasyan /Jimmy What are they going to sex?Kenya Courts are very funny if not Fantastic Big Battock Govt has been turned up-side-Down>here>>Appeal’s Court nullifies Othaya parliamentary election
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2014 – 00:00 — BY LYDIA MATATA
Mary Wambui.Photo/File
Mary Wambui.Photo/File
Mary Wambui has lost the Othaya Parliamentary seat after the Court of Appeal in Nyeri nullified her March 4 election.
The court reversed the decision of the High Court which dismissed a petition by Othaya parliamentary loser Peter King’ara challenging her election saying that there were too many irregularities in the election that cannot be ignored.
A three-judge bench at the Nyeri Court of Appeal directed the Independent Boundaries and Electoral Commission to serve the Speaker of the National Assembly with a notice that he may declare the seat vacant.
Kenyatta in Court: Victims Call for Justice as Hope for it Fades
If the case against President Kenyatta were to collapse, it would be a disaster for the ICC, but the repercussions for the victims of the 2007/8 violence would be all the more tragic.
Article | 14 February 2014 – 10:57am | By Natalia Ojewska
The Hague, Netherlands:
Yesterday, Kenya’s Attorney General Githu Muigai appeared in The Hague to respond to claims that the Kenyan government has frustrated the prosecution in the case against President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The prosecution had accused Nairobi of “pure obstructionism” in its attempts to gather evidence such as phone data or financial assets, but Muigui refuted the claims, insisting that Kenya had wholly fulfilled its legal obligations. The prosecution remained unconvinced, however, and in response to queries over how long it would take the Attorney General to process their requests for information, Muigai merely cautioned: “I do not know and do not want to speculate.”
Kenyatta stands accused of crimes against humanity related to post-election violence in 2007/2008 when 1,200 people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced. In the absence of credible national courts able to hold the case impartially, the victims of the violence put their faith in the International Criminal Court (ICC). However, six years on, they are still awaiting justice, witnesses have withdrawn amidst allegations of intimidation and bribery, and the case has been delayed time after time.
Kenyatta, the first sitting president to be tried the ICC, has continually expressed his willingness to cooperate with the legal proceedings. Yet at the same time, he has publicly accused the ICC of being a corrupt tool of “recolonisation”, his attorneys have persistently called for the case to be dismissed outright, while his government has lobbied its international allies to call for a suspension of the case while he is in office.
Many of the high-level international battles and legal wrangling in case appear to be coming to a head. But as Fergal Gaynor, the legal representative for the victims in the case, highlights, the thing that is often neglected when talking about the Kenyatta case is the victims of the violence.
“Instead of using state funds to provide fair compensation to victims,” he says, “the accused used state funds to send high-level teams of diplomats around the world to argue for immunity, deferral or for rule changes on his behalf.” Indeed, it is worth remembering that while it might be a disaster for the ICC and notions of international justice if the Kenyatta case were to fall apart, the repercussions for Kenya’s victims would be all the more tragic.
Scant compensation
Six years after the post-election violence, little compensation or support has been offered to its hundreds of thousands of survivors. Meanwhile, Gaynor claims that the assistance which has been offered “has not been provided in an ethnically neutral fashion, but has favoured those from the Kikuyu or Kalenjin.”
Furthermore, some 300,000 of the 660,000 people internally displaced in 2007/8 are considered by the government to have now been ‘integrated’ into communities across the country. According to Gaynor, these groups were brought to what was considered to be their homeland, and “once they were dumped there, it appears that the government essentially concluded that it had no further duties towards them.” The government, he says, “did not help them to find shelter or land and did not give them financial assistance of any kind.”
“Victims often have very modest requests such as school fees or money for the hospital,” he continues. “Some of them have small business like tea shops and ask for little loans, so that they can buy equipment and get back on their feet.”
Psychological scars
However, these survivors also want much more than just assistance to rebuild the lives and livelihoods destroyed in the post-election unrest. Many witnessed their family or neighbours being killed and many were victims of sexual and other types of violence − for them, justice is the only way to heal their deep psychological wounds.
A married couple shared their story: Six years ago Cecilia (not her real name), along together with several other women from the Luo community, was gang raped by attackers from the Mungiki, a Kikuyu vigilante group. Beaten, humiliated, and powerless, the women were then doused in paraffin and set alight. They were badly burnt but managed to survive. Nine months later, Cecilia gave birth to a baby boy, the biological son of a Mungiki rapist. She is raising the child lovingly with her husband, who barely survived a brutal attack himself. They long for justice and believe that only with true justice will they be able to find forgiveness.
A dismissal of Kenyatta’s would deny this justice. Moreover, if the case against Kenyatta were dropped but the case against William Ruto − Kenyatta’s Kalenjin rival in the post-election violence but now deputy president − continues, ethnic divisions could be deepen once more.
So despite victims’ diminishing faith in the ICC as the Kenyatta case flails and appears to be gradually falling apart, they are still determined to see the perpetrators of the violence brought to trial and justice delivered.
“Their aims are big,” says Gaynor. “They do want a genuine trial. They want the trial to be fair in the full sense of the word.”
Whether their wishes come true or whether the Kenyan government continues to obfuscate, delay and harry the process until the charges are dropped remains to be seen. However, Attorney General Muigai’s unconvincing and purely technical defence of his actions yesterday won’t do much to inspire hope.
Think Africa Press welcomes inquiries regarding the republication of its articles. If you would like to republish this or any other article for re-print, syndication or educational purposes, please contact:editor@thinkafricapress.com.
i sympathise with wambui.they used her.she spent billionsto be in power now they have usedthe courts to rob her again,they want to ruin her financially and cripple her completely.she has been abandoned by kikuyu elite now only semi illiterate waititu is supporting her she is of no consequence in kibaki-uhuru power matrix and game plan.poor wambui she should forget it instead of wasting her reources when clearly she is not wanted
Kenya Stockholm Blog 
UHURU DIDN’T GET 50% IN 2013 – US ACADEMICS
Wednesday, February 12, 2014 – 00:00 — BY IBRAHIM ORUKO
AN exit poll commissioned by American academics indicates that no presidential candidate reached 50 percent in the March 2013 election. Details and analysis of the exit poll are contained in the latest issue of the Journal of East African Studies. The exit poll on March 4 interviewed 6,258 voters as they left 404 polling stations spread over all 47 counties. The enumerators randomly selected every second voter leaving polling stations. They had an 88 percent response rate on the interviews which were transmitted live on Android phones. The exit poll indicated that Raila Odinga received 40.9 per cent of the vote while Uhuru Kenyatta received 40.6 percent.
The authors of the article were Karen Ferree and Clark Gibson of University of California, and James Long of the University of Washington. On March 19, the IEBC declared that Uhuru won the election with 6,173,433 votes against Raila Odinga’s 5,340,546. Uhuru therefore surpassed the constitutional threshold of 50% by 4,100 votes giving him 50.07 percent of the votes. However the American academics wrote that the exit poll data was “highly suggestive of a deeply flawed electoral process and challenge claims that Kenyatta won a majority of votes in the first round.” “Exit polls represent important tools for verifying official vote counts,” the JEAS article states. “Unlike actual ballots, exit poll results are immune to ballot stuffing, tally manipulation, or technological failures in the counting system. Therefore they can reflect the vote more accurately than certified vote counts in corrupt elections,” states the article.
The American authors noted that the exit poll result was similar to the Ipsos Synovate poll ten days before the election which showed a statistical tie between Uhuru at 44.8 percent and Raila at 44.4 percent. The authors then interrogated why there was a 9.5 percent gap between their exit poll results and the final IEBC result. They dismissed the argument that “Kenyatta’s victory flowed from the high rate of registration” because the exit poll by definition only questioned those voters who were on the final register. They pointed out that the “official IEBC results show consistently high turnout in both Kenyatta and Odinga strongholds.” The academics doubted that the discrepancy could have been the result of last minute changes because exit polls “capture all last minute swings in support”. They noted that 12 percent of voters Refused to Answer (RTA) the exit poll. The academics analysed whether it was “plausible” that Uhuru won the 80 percent or more of the RTAs to get a simple majority on the first round. The academics stated that “the coefficients on the political controls are most consistent with political neutrality among RTA voters.” Using a special “multiple imputation method”, the academics said, “our estimates suggest that 40.2 percent of the RTAs went to Odinga, another 40.5 percent to Kenyatta, and 19.3 percent to other candidates.” “Overall we estimate that Odinga took 45.3 percent of the vote and Kenyatta 45.6 percent, a statistical tie,” the JEAS authors state.
The authors also said that 10 percent of the exit poll respondents expected the IEBC to have problems with the count. They pointed out that the IEBC result was marred by the failure of Electronic Voter Identification Devices, the failure of polling station officials to report by cellphones, and the lack of transparency in the official tallying process. The JEAS authors also pointed out that the Elections Observation Group (ELOG) observers found that the electronic poll book failed in 55 percent of voting streams, 17 percent of ballot boxes were violated during voting , and 4 percent of ballot boxes were not shown to be empty before voting. The ELOG figures for Parallel Vote Tabulation gave 49.7 percent for Uhuru and 43.3 percent for Raila. The American academics said that ELOG “perhaps overstates the case” when saying that their tabulation “verified” the IEBC results as it was within their margin of error. – See more at: http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-154815/uhuru-didnt-get-50-2013-us-academics#sthash.M5k4AMxc.dpuf
Reblogged this on ambulivictor's Blog.
Uhuru was rigged by Nis (NSIS) Kdf and CIDs all kenya security organs under gema.Kikuyu Ruling -class of very rich (wealth) Anus-Thinking Kikuyus who are really brutal against all Kenyan People (including millions of the poor Kikuyu’s Low-class holoi-poloi ! The final solution to Kenya today tomorrow and yesterday is only Revolution that will transform this Raped ,molested stripped father-land by the Compradors, Lackeys, Boot-lickers,(Wanyaparas) whose Royalty is to Imperialist western& Communists Masters.Let us remind them Kenya people’s intrests must come first before any other God! We as Kenyans must abandon tribalism ,hate see collectivelly our suffering as brothers and sisters Unite and carry-out a Revolution that will Overthrow these Brutal Anti-Kenyan-People’s Class of Rulers that has chained over 40 millions of oppressed people of Kenya regardless tribe. Let us unite as brothers and sisters and bring down this Uhuru&Ruto Devilish Mzungu licking ass- traitor rogue government led war criminals build on sand!
Mari Balotelle has become crying baby>Go to Kenya!
http://www.kenya-today.com/news/racial-slurs-to-mario-balotelli
Watch Mr Rutos QC Mr Khan interview>
Uhuru Fanatic Tonny Gachoka ><
Kibaki /Magaryan /Sagasyan /Jimmy What are they going to sex?Kenya Courts are very funny if not Fantastic Big Battock Govt has been turned up-side-Down>here>>Appeal’s Court nullifies Othaya parliamentary election
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2014 – 00:00 — BY LYDIA MATATA
Mary Wambui.Photo/File
Mary Wambui.Photo/File
Mary Wambui has lost the Othaya Parliamentary seat after the Court of Appeal in Nyeri nullified her March 4 election.
The court reversed the decision of the High Court which dismissed a petition by Othaya parliamentary loser Peter King’ara challenging her election saying that there were too many irregularities in the election that cannot be ignored.
A three-judge bench at the Nyeri Court of Appeal directed the Independent Boundaries and Electoral Commission to serve the Speaker of the National Assembly with a notice that he may declare the seat vacant.
– See more at: http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-155200/appeals-court-nullifies-othaya-parliamentary-election#sthash.pKgzcBoD.dpuf
Welcome to new Kisumu Lake Legion City in the Sun>Jaramogistad>
http://nipate.com/welcome-to-kisumu-karibu-kisumu-wadhii-dala-t37535.html
Kenyatta in Court: Victims Call for Justice as Hope for it Fades
If the case against President Kenyatta were to collapse, it would be a disaster for the ICC, but the repercussions for the victims of the 2007/8 violence would be all the more tragic.
Article | 14 February 2014 – 10:57am | By Natalia Ojewska
The Hague, Netherlands:
Yesterday, Kenya’s Attorney General Githu Muigai appeared in The Hague to respond to claims that the Kenyan government has frustrated the prosecution in the case against President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The prosecution had accused Nairobi of “pure obstructionism” in its attempts to gather evidence such as phone data or financial assets, but Muigui refuted the claims, insisting that Kenya had wholly fulfilled its legal obligations. The prosecution remained unconvinced, however, and in response to queries over how long it would take the Attorney General to process their requests for information, Muigai merely cautioned: “I do not know and do not want to speculate.”
Kenyatta stands accused of crimes against humanity related to post-election violence in 2007/2008 when 1,200 people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced. In the absence of credible national courts able to hold the case impartially, the victims of the violence put their faith in the International Criminal Court (ICC). However, six years on, they are still awaiting justice, witnesses have withdrawn amidst allegations of intimidation and bribery, and the case has been delayed time after time.
Kenyatta, the first sitting president to be tried the ICC, has continually expressed his willingness to cooperate with the legal proceedings. Yet at the same time, he has publicly accused the ICC of being a corrupt tool of “recolonisation”, his attorneys have persistently called for the case to be dismissed outright, while his government has lobbied its international allies to call for a suspension of the case while he is in office.
Many of the high-level international battles and legal wrangling in case appear to be coming to a head. But as Fergal Gaynor, the legal representative for the victims in the case, highlights, the thing that is often neglected when talking about the Kenyatta case is the victims of the violence.
“Instead of using state funds to provide fair compensation to victims,” he says, “the accused used state funds to send high-level teams of diplomats around the world to argue for immunity, deferral or for rule changes on his behalf.” Indeed, it is worth remembering that while it might be a disaster for the ICC and notions of international justice if the Kenyatta case were to fall apart, the repercussions for Kenya’s victims would be all the more tragic.
Scant compensation
Six years after the post-election violence, little compensation or support has been offered to its hundreds of thousands of survivors. Meanwhile, Gaynor claims that the assistance which has been offered “has not been provided in an ethnically neutral fashion, but has favoured those from the Kikuyu or Kalenjin.”
Furthermore, some 300,000 of the 660,000 people internally displaced in 2007/8 are considered by the government to have now been ‘integrated’ into communities across the country. According to Gaynor, these groups were brought to what was considered to be their homeland, and “once they were dumped there, it appears that the government essentially concluded that it had no further duties towards them.” The government, he says, “did not help them to find shelter or land and did not give them financial assistance of any kind.”
“Victims often have very modest requests such as school fees or money for the hospital,” he continues. “Some of them have small business like tea shops and ask for little loans, so that they can buy equipment and get back on their feet.”
Psychological scars
However, these survivors also want much more than just assistance to rebuild the lives and livelihoods destroyed in the post-election unrest. Many witnessed their family or neighbours being killed and many were victims of sexual and other types of violence − for them, justice is the only way to heal their deep psychological wounds.
A married couple shared their story: Six years ago Cecilia (not her real name), along together with several other women from the Luo community, was gang raped by attackers from the Mungiki, a Kikuyu vigilante group. Beaten, humiliated, and powerless, the women were then doused in paraffin and set alight. They were badly burnt but managed to survive. Nine months later, Cecilia gave birth to a baby boy, the biological son of a Mungiki rapist. She is raising the child lovingly with her husband, who barely survived a brutal attack himself. They long for justice and believe that only with true justice will they be able to find forgiveness.
A dismissal of Kenyatta’s would deny this justice. Moreover, if the case against Kenyatta were dropped but the case against William Ruto − Kenyatta’s Kalenjin rival in the post-election violence but now deputy president − continues, ethnic divisions could be deepen once more.
So despite victims’ diminishing faith in the ICC as the Kenyatta case flails and appears to be gradually falling apart, they are still determined to see the perpetrators of the violence brought to trial and justice delivered.
“Their aims are big,” says Gaynor. “They do want a genuine trial. They want the trial to be fair in the full sense of the word.”
Whether their wishes come true or whether the Kenyan government continues to obfuscate, delay and harry the process until the charges are dropped remains to be seen. However, Attorney General Muigai’s unconvincing and purely technical defence of his actions yesterday won’t do much to inspire hope.
Think Africa Press welcomes inquiries regarding the republication of its articles. If you would like to republish this or any other article for re-print, syndication or educational purposes, please contact:editor@thinkafricapress.com.
i sympathise with wambui.they used her.she spent billionsto be in power now they have usedthe courts to rob her again,they want to ruin her financially and cripple her completely.she has been abandoned by kikuyu elite now only semi illiterate waititu is supporting her she is of no consequence in kibaki-uhuru power matrix and game plan.poor wambui she should forget it instead of wasting her reources when clearly she is not wanted