From “Dialogue” to “Revolution” in Kenya: A Ten Point Theoretical Perspective
Kenya might be approaching the cross roads. According to Raila Odinga, leader of the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) a huge political storm is gathering on the horizons as political crisis facing the Jubilee government also deepens. In fact, the regime is so scared that Uhuru Kenyatta, the President, has cancelled a scheduled IGAD meeting of African Heads of State in Ethiopia because of fears that his government “might be overthrown” during his absence. This is probably the most serious indication that the Jubilee coalition is rapidly weakening from within ahead of a major crumble. What is the possibility that the Jubilee government might soon be brought down through a mass insurrection, a general uprising, civil disobedience or even an armed struggle?
To delve into this analysis, a brief summary of the political situation in Kenya is key to appreciating the looming threat of revolution that might vanquish not just Uhuru Kenyatta’s dictatorship but also terminate the hegemony of the Mount Kenya Mafia cartel that has literally held more than 40 million Kenyans hostage in their own country for more than a decade.
Jubilee’s failure to deliver on a single election pledge
It is now official that the Jubilee government is illegal and even the most sycophantic Jubilee supporters now agree that the Match 2013 election was stolen through the conniving of the IEBC and the subsequent compromisation of the Mutunga-led Supreme Court to endorse the stolen election allegedly at gun-point. This second stealing of elections in a row is just part of the matrix that seems to have convinced millions of Kenyans that the Mount Kenya bandwagon must go by any means necessary.
Since it assumed power, the Jubilee government has been unable to meet a single expectation of the people of Kenya. Kenyans are starving to death while hundreds are dying due to insecurity, treatable diseases, summery executions by trigger-happy police, political assassinations and road accidents due to corruption within the police force.
The corrupt Jubilee government has failed to deliver on a single election pledge. Laptops for school pupils are nowhere to be seen, free maternal health care remains a distant mirage, insecurity is rampant across the country while the hopes and aspirations of millions of youths promised jobs have effectively evaporated because so far, nothing is happening. The poor masses of the Kenyan people can no longer afford the high cost of living as a result of run-away prices of basic consumer commodities while workers living on starvation wages are so impoverished that they can no longer live from hand to mouth.
The Kalenjin short-changed by Mount Kenya Mafia cartel
Instead, the Jubilee government has taken corruption a notch higher than Kibaki’s regime while tribalism in the appointment of civil servants is incomparable to any other regime since the colonial revolution. Worse still, the fragile Jubilee Coalition is lurching from crisis to crisis with the Kalenjin wing of the Kikuyu-Kalenjin Coalitition struggling to come to grips with the fact that the community has been cheated by the Mount Kenya Mafia cartel out of a 50-50 pre-election power sharing deal. The anti-Ruto camp in the Rift Valley is slowly gravitating towards Cord and today, millions of Kenyans will bet their livers that very few Kalenjins can throw their weight behind the Mount Kenya Mafia cartel in the event of a political crisis. Similarly, progressive Kikuyus have arrived at the conclusion that their kith are leading Kenya astray, if not, driving Kenya towards a “41 against 1″ civil war.
The smell of revolution in the air
As the political crisis deepens, the internal cracks within Jubilee widens, the regime panics, demand for dialogue escalates and the storm gathers, members of the inept Kikuyu ruling class are systematically being isolated. After rigging two subsequent elections, subjecting millions of Kenyans to untold human suffering and then short-changing the Kalenjin, the myopic, ruthless, tribalistic, incompetent, corrupt, murderous and thieving gang of blood suckers running government through the back door are being seen as the main problem in Kenya.
It is for these reasons that millions of Kenyans view Raila Odinga’s call for dialogue as a milder option in the situation because some disillusioned Kenyans are already asking for guns since they don’t believe that dialogue will actually solve the problem.
Since the overthrow of the Moi regime through a democratic election in 2002, the smell of revolution is once again in the air and, to be exact (and just like the Olympic games), what is missing in Kenya is the “lighting of the fire” to set off a virulent revolution that will forever obliterate election thieves, wealth and land grabbers to open the way for democracy and the rule of law where all Kenyans can live together as equal human beings.
It is in this light that at this juncture, it is important to break down the process that might catapult Raila’s call for dialogue into an all-out revolutionary struggle that might overthrow the Jubilee regime before its record is dumped into the dust-bins of history. The following is a summary of a possible sequence of events.
The Ten Possible Stages of the “Anti-Mount Kenya Mafia Revolution”
1. If Jubilee rejects Cord’s call for dialogue, and if Cord lives up to its word, the Coalition will go ahead with mass rallies. These rallies will be banned by the government because the regime is currently on “panic mode”. The banning of the rallies will, in itself “fire” the desire of Kenyans to hold the rallies because the ban will be seen as a violation of the Constitution by Jubilee for reasons of political survival. Given the time, energy and money spent on the writing of the New Constitution, and given the hopes millions of Kenyans peg on the Constitution, Kenyans will be ready to defy the Jubilee government to exercise their right to free Assembly regardless of the circumstances. They defied Kenyatta, they defied Moi, they defied Kibaki and they will defy Uhuru.
2. If the masses defy the ban on rallies, the Jubilee government will be tempted to send police, the GSU and the army to cordon off rally venues. In such a situation, there is almost 100% surety that a confrontation between Cord supporters and security forces will ensue. This is where the situation will begin to change dramatically because violence will break out.
3. There will be riots across Kenya, burning, looting and wanton destruction of property. According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) Kenya has 24,120 soldiers while Interpol places the number of policemen and police women in Kenya at 35,000. With the approximate number of GSU personnel at 5,000, the number of security personnel at the government’s disposal in Kenya stands at 64,120. This adds up to approximately 624 Kenyans being guarded by 1 security officer. In the event of a national uprising to topple the Jubilee government, the security forces will be no match to the masses of the Kenyan people and toppling the Uhuru regime will depend on the level of Cord’s preparedness. The logic is based on the fact that on the basis of the tyranny of numbers, security forces will be unable to contain unrest in 47 counties if the uprising is happening simultaneously.
4. In the major towns and cities especially Nairobi, Kisumu and Mombasa, there will be massive shooting by security forces to scare the public. This will result in a major blood bath by the Jubilee government which Cord has to be prepared for. Already, the government is being led by suspected war criminals with massive blood on their hands. This time, the killings by security forces under the command of the regime will be worse because both the war criminals and the Mount Kenya Mafia cartel will be fighting for political survival. It will be their opportunity to make their last stand. Under the circumstances, thousands of Kenyans will be killed in the process of the Anti-Mount Kenya Mafia revolution.
5. For the “International community”, the expected massacres will be unacceptable and will prompt immediate debate at the United Nations as to whether the “International Community” should just watch or intervene to save millions of Kenyans from being slaughtered by an illegal and rogue regime unable to govern. The example of Rwanda will be used at the UN to underline the danger of ethnic differences and the possibility of genocide.
6. Already, the “International community” has advised its citizens to leave Kenya due to insecurity and this means that they will be more than ready to rush to the UN for an intervention. Another problem is that the country has been sold to the Chinese by Uhuru and the West will be too eager to get back “what belongs to the West” aka Kenya through “regime change” and in the name of “the people” of Kenya. As soon as security forces begin to kill civilians, a golden opportunity will be created for the West to strike, capture Uhuru and Ruto to be carted away to the Hague where they will be locked behind bars to allow Bensouda to do her job without “witness interference”. Kenyans who will be killed by security forces during the revolution will be heaped on the cases of Uhuruto to help lock them in for 100 years. Once they arrive at The Hague, both Uhuru and Ruto menace will be finished forever.
7. Usually, an intervention by the “International community” is a military intervention. The Kenyan military (with some forces still wasting time in Somalia) will be no match to any UN authorized intervention. According to KRA’s intelligence, the first to be bombed will be the military barracks followed by radar and other military installations, State House, Office of President, Office of Vice President, Office of Police Commissioner and NSIS headquarters. In these kinds of situations, it is usually important to destroy all symbols of power because this demoralizes the ruling class and makes them (and supporters) understand that “it’s over”. Parliament, Central Bank, Treasury, KICC, JKIA and the General Post Office will all be spared to allow any subsequent regime to have the necessary infrastructure to set up an Interim regime.
8. As the revolution enters into the stage where security personnel begin to kill Kenyans to try and save the Uhuruto regime, Raila Odinga will either have to go into hiding or flee the country otherwise he will be killed. The regime (together with the Mafia) will be so desperate and afraid of losing power that they will try to resort to desperate actions as a matter of political survival. It is at this point that killing Raila Odinga will become an option and if the Cord leader’s Intelligence unit sleeps, Raila will be no more by the time Uhuruto are carted to the Hague.
9. Whether in hiding or in temporary exile, and as the Jubilee government begins to collapse, Cord will have to set a “Kenya National Transitional Council (KNTC)” whose only task will be to organize a fresh and democratic election so that Kenyans can elect leaders of their choice. KNTC will have to be set up as soon as security forces are sent to begin killing Kenyans because these killings will mark the beginning of the end of the Jubilee regime. Depending on circumstances, resistance of Jubilee thieves using security forces may be protracted and this may prompt the opposition to set up the “Free Kenya Army” to help liberate the country. If the revolution takes this road, liberation will take a slightly longer period because it will mean an armed struggle “Syrian style” where opposition trains and arms its soldiers to confront government soldiers on the battle field. Hopefully, it will not get to this because the perspective is that both Uhuru and Ruto will be captured quite easily thereby saving Kenya from a protracted bloodbath that might turn Kenya into another Somalia.
10. Once both Uhuru and Ruto are captured, KNTC will take over the country’s leadership and call for elections in six months to one year. The elections will then decide who leads Kenya.
It has to be emphasized that this is only a theoretical perspective of KRA and not a blue print of the development of events in the run up to Saba Saba and the toppling of the Jubilee government. It is a “rough guide” to the looming Kenyan revolution especially if Raila’s call for dialogue is ignored by Uhuru. This perspective does not endorse violence in the resolution of the political crisis looming in Kenya but tries to lay bare the stark realities possible under the prevailing circumstances.
Kenya Red Alliance (KRA)
Mount Kenya Pyramid Power Structure and Looting Scheme