Kenya Stockholm Blog

Martha Karua is a politician who must have been doing a lot of re-thinking in the past six months. For her to have concluded that she has to return to Uhuru Kenyatta, she must have undergone through a lot of psychological torture. Indeed, she appears to have interrogated her political options ahead of 2017 and made decisions which have seen her warm up to Uhuru Kenyatta. Had she any better option?

Martha understood too early that in 2017, presenting herself as a Presidential candidate would be a huge waste of time and money because she cannot be President. Unlike RAO who has tried his chances several times, winning and being robbed of victory twice, Martha had to give up because she is not Presidential material while three key circumstances are heavily weighed against her.

First, Martha has no chance of winning the Presidency as long as Uhuru Kenyatta also presents himself to the electorate. The Kikuyu culture does not value women in top positions of leadership in society and this explains why in Kikuyu culture, women are not allowed to attend certain meetings where wazee are deliberating. The Kikuyu are not alone because the Americans have just refused to elect a woman president.

Apart from Uhuru’s candidacy disadvantaging her, Martha has no “mass following” as Chairperson of Narc-Kenya. She has nothing to bring to the table in any opposition alliance and this explains the lurk worm reception she has been receiving from Raila Odinga’s Cord. She has no bargaining power because Uhuru Kenyatta technicallycommands almost all Kikuyu votes in Central province. With nothing to offer in terms of votes, Raila has been talking to her “for sentimental reasons”. It is the realization that she has no influence in Cord that put her thoughts on the road to Kirinyaga Gubernatorial race where Uhuru’s alleged girlfriend, Ann Waiguru, is waiting to do battle with her.

Thirdly, Martha has no resources to wage a Presidential campaign. She wasted a lot of money during her last Presidential campaign and at the moment, she is broke. The risk is, if she doesn’t think her strategy fast, she risks being politically irrelevant again after 2017. It is this reality that caught up with Martha, prompting her to change plans and “return home” to try and become Kirinyaga Governor instead of President of the Republic. In deciding to join the Kirinyaga race, Martha has made a big mistake because she is going to lose.

In the video, I argue that Martha’s goose is cooked because while cunning Uhuru might lure her to disband Narc-Kenya and join Jubilee, she will be betrayed as soon as she becomes Party-less because Uhuru will never abandon Ann Waiguru (whom he allegedly chews) for Martha. If Uhuru was honest and ready to support Martha, what kamwana could have done could have been to request Martha to accept a political alliance between the fragile Uhuru’s JAP contraption and Narc-Kenya mabati in exchange for a guaranteed support for Martha’s quest for Governorship of Kirinyaga. Any arrangement outside this formula and which tends to encourage Martha to ditch her party, will see the “Iron Lady” land into a ditch.

The case of Waiguru’s candidacy is complicated because if Uhuru dumps her, she will spill the NYS secrets and destroy Uhuru. Waiguru may go out with romantic details between her and Uhuru in a way that may seriously damage Uhuru’s already tattered image. Uhuru dilly-dallied in sacking Waiguru as Cabinet Secretary following the explosion of the NYS scandal because Waiguru threatened to spill the beans on both the scandal and their romance. When the political heat reached fever-pitch on the Waiguru scandal, Waiguru quit simply because Uhuru assured her that she wouldn’t be prosecuted. She started spilling the beans at PAC to warn Uhuru that if the President did not do everything to ensure that she was safe, Uhuru would face serious consequences. It will take a miracle for Uhuru to ditch Waiguru in support of Martha who has not only been away sleeping with the enemy but also engaging in sporadic anti-Uhuru propaganda at every opportunity during the better part of Uhuru’s presidency. Martha is in a big political dilemma.

If she wants to remain politically relevant after 2017, she must return to Raila Odinga or join Miguna Miguna by trying her luck in the race for Nairobi Governor. Martha must seek serious political advice instead of listening to the likes of William Ruto who is simply telling her to join Jubilee. She is experiencing political turbulence which comes with perpetual political opportunism.

Okoth Osewe