What Next for Kenya after Catastrophic Failure of the National Democratic Process?

Everlasting hegemony by Kikuyu mafia cartel or separate Republics for the Provinces?

The people of the Republic of Kenya are on the horns of dilemma because the National Democratic Movement appears to have reached a dead end. The historical mission of the person called Raila Amolo Odinga may be approaching its final days and as Cord takes its seats in the National and County Assemblies, the sixty four dollar question is “what is to be done?” From a study of the political situation, a new Movement with a new agenda may have to be established to fill the emerging leadership vacuum following the disorientation of Cord by political gangsters in the Mount Kenya camp. In the run up to the swearing in of Uhuru Kenyatta as Kenya’s fourth President, uncertainty hangs in the air for millions of Kenyans who believe that elections have become worthless.

After the rigging of elections, Kenyans are being told to “move on” although they are not being told where to go. Specifically Kenyans of non-Kikuyu and non Kalenjin origin do not want to be told to “move on” by leaders or supporters of the Jubilee coalition because after the second election theft, non-Jubilee members have serious unfinished business which will have to be sorted out before any forward movement can be discussed. If Jubilee had come to power democratically, “moving on” ought to have been a natural phenomenon. To understand what needs to be done, Kenyans will first have to understand what has happened. Unfortunately, Cord (which should have taken the lead) is not in a position to clarify to its supporters the latest developments because of shock and prevailing confusion within the fragile Coalition. Likewise, the Coalition is not in a position to chart the way forward because it is not adequately equipped politically to do so.

What has happened is that the national democratic process (within the context of bourgeoisie democracy which Kenya has been following) has come to an end. With Jubilee having come to power through overt election rigging, Kenya has started a new journey back to the dark past of yesteryears. Raila’s political mission may be approaching its conclusion because he is the person who has brought the country at the end of the “democratic road” by demonstrating that after every major democratic reform of every key institution, and even with the writing of a new Constitution, it is still not possible for any Movement, political Party or Coalition to come to power in Kenya through the democratic process currently in place.

The thieving Kikuyu ruling class mafia cartel which has taken over the State is akin to 1970s KANU’s kitchen Cabinet which was first led by Jomo Kenyatta (with his Kiambu mafia cartel) which was succeeded by former dictator Daniel arap Moi’s Kalenjin mafia cartel (the Kabarak Syndicate) which ruled Kenya for 24 years using the “Security Home Boys” aka Special Branch which had its base at Nyayo House.

The national democratic process has ended because when Moi was in power, the biggest political agenda was the re-introduction of political pluralism whose quest reached its climax in the late 80s. At that time, the national democratic movement (a movement for democratic reforms) led by Raila’s father, Oginga Odinga (and others too numerous to name here), convinced Kenyans that the country’s problems could be resolved through re-introduction of a multi-party political system. Victory came at the height of the Saba Saba uprising when Kenya was declared a multi-party State. Unfortunately, political parties that emerged embraced ethnicity as a tenet because their leaders were ideologically bankrupt. Nevertheless, this development represented big progress on the national democratic front because new political parties emerged to challenge KANU’s “Baba na Mama” politics. After the 92 and 97 elections, which were all rigged by Moi, a new problem emerged for Kenya’s democratic movement.

Leaders of this movement discovered that although Kenya had become a multi-party State, the country’s Constitution had fatal flaws that could torpedo the struggle for democracy. The conclusion was that the document had to be amended or overhauled for the struggle for democracy to move forward. A few changes (which also limited the presidential term to ten years) were made on the document. After the constitutional amendments, Mwai Kibaki took over power from Moi in 2002 following a democratic election and millions of Kenyans were convinced that the country was heading in the right direction. That was until the 2007 debacle when Kibaki took the country back to Moi-style election rigging where the country had come from. Thousands of innocent lives were lost as the national democratic movement led by Raila Odinga took stock of what had happened.

In the 2002 elections, Raila defeated Kibaki but decided to settle for the position of Prime Minister after Kibaki was sworn in as President. At that point, Raila thought that there were more reforms that were needed to prevent a repeat of the 2007 election rigging which led to bloodshed. After 2007, and in what was considered a permanent solution to election rigging, the democratic movement led by ODM decided to go for a totally new Constitution, electoral and judicial reforms.

In 2010, a new Constitution was promulgated, the ill-fated IEBC was set up, the electronic tallying system was put in place while the Supreme Court was also established with Dr. Willy Mutunga at the helm. As the country approached the 2013 election, there was optimism because the understanding was that everything had been put into place for Kenya to match into a democratic future.

Today, Kenya is in a dilemma because election has been rigged again 2007 style. The democratic process has ended because there is nothing else to reform in order to better the political playing ground. Raila Odinga has tested a totally reformed system and it has equally failed totally. It is like testing a new and modern rocket only for it to crash in mid-air. Worse still, this reformed system has left the country with suspected war criminals facing charges of crimes against humanity in power.

What is to be done?
Since it is now known that elections are worthless in Kenya, and given that the Kikuyu mafia will want to rig every election, the agenda of organizing another “mass movement” or a new “coalition” to try and take over power through another election will, most likely, be off the table. Raila Odinga may have been the last person to have tried this rout and the report is that it doesn’t work. Obviously, the various ethnic groups occupying the eight provinces will not accept to be governed by a Kikuyu mafia cartel which has closed the road to democratic elections. This understanding will, no doubt, lead the aggrieved ethnic groups to opt for regional autonomy (through peaceful or violent means) as the only option on the table. It is called “the politics of Majimbo” which involves Kenya splitting up into eight Republics which could then form a Federation in the future, probably the “Federal Republic of Kenya”. It is for this reason that a new movement or movements may have to be set up to counter what could be Kikuyu hegemony in Kenya’s politics until Kingdom comes.

Raila said that he believes in both Social Democracy and “capitalism with a human face”. From an ideological stand point, Social Democracy seeks a progressive conversion of capitalism into socialism using the “two stage” theory of revolution. The first stage is the achievement of “democratic rights” and the second stage is the match from capitalism to socialism once democratic rights have been achieved. Throughout the world, there is no country where Social Democracy has moved society from capitalism to socialism. In the advanced capitalist countries especially in Europe, Social Democracy succeeded in reaching the first stage of democratic reforms and even built welfare states across the European continent. Unfortunately, the journey to socialism has always been aborted by many Social Democrats with many Social Democratic regimes reverting to capitalism and even destroying welfare states built in the past.

Back in Kenya, the democratic reforms came into being but the process has now failed because the Kikuyu mafia has sabotaged it. This does not mean that Raila Odinga will become irrelevant in Kenyan politics. Regardless of what Raila decides to embark on during his sun-set days, new leaders will have to emerge to take up the Kikuyu mafia cartel that believes that Kenya belongs to the Kikuyu ruling elite. Through his reform movement, Raila has succeeded in erecting structures for regional autonomy through the devolved system of government and the task of the new movement will be to cut off the power links in Nairobi. The former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia are just two examples of States that called it quits when the system failed to serve all members of its population democratically.

A unitary State in a multi-ethnic nation like Kenya is only viable if the democratic process works. As Kenyans ponder about the future, the two options on the table are hegemony by Kikuyu mafia which has taken over the State or separate Republics for the provinces. KRA is ready to discuss a Socialist Federation of Kenya and how to get there but this could be the subject of another topic.

Okoth Osewe
Secretary General
Kenya Red Alliance  

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