OJ Hatari Says:
1. Allegation: The Voters Register grew by 85,000. from 14,337,399.00 to 14,352,533
Fact: The voter registration as at 18th December 2012 was 14,337,399.00 and from the data published by IEBC on summary of Registered voters are 14,349,896 a growth of a 12,497 votes.
2. Allegation: That IEBC removed 20,000 voters from the register due to double entry resulting to voters register reducing to 14,269,752.
Fact: Simple addition and subtraction mathematics of 14,337,399 – 20,000 = 14,317,399 and not 14,269,752. In addition CORD should be cognizant of the fact that the voters register was opened for inspection to enable any political party or coalition the opportunity to have any eventual anomalies corrected. It was then the IEBC discovered that voters in remote areas like West Pokot, Turkana and Wajir had not been registered in the BVR register. Thus the registration exercise was extended by one month and the anomalies leading to the addition and subtraction in all areas the net effect yielding a net addition of 12,497 voters.
Looking at the affected areas were substantial votes were added: Turkana (12,540), West Pokot (13,092), Trans Nzoia (13,288). It is worth noting that Turkana and Trans Nzoia are ODM strongholds. Another noted phenomenon was counties were the number of voters was reduced, prominent being Nairobi (50,102), Kajiado (10,707), Homa Bay (5,872), Muranga (4,211). A clear pattern to the registration emerged and IEBC realized that under developed had voters that were not registered and areas which are fairly urban and developed had the number of registered voters reduced. There was no discernable pattern in the affected areas when the voting blocks were taken in consideration, with no advantage to Jubilee, CORD or any other party/coalition.
Every political part and coalition were aware that IEBC had legally only one month to avail Voters Register to the public scrutiny for purposes of correction of omissions and removal of duplicates. Unless CORD is of the view that it was unconstitutional to amend the register during this one month’s period, they should not have any issues in regard to the accuracy of the Voters Register. Speculation has it that CORD are well aware of losing in the event of a repeat poll and are trying to cast doubt geared towards a ruling from The Supreme Court in which the current register will be declared void and a fresh registration process called for. This way they could hopefully mobilize their supporters to register in greater numbers.
3. Allegation: That the constituencies of Tiata, Laisamis, Igembe Central, Buri, Chuka, Lari, Kapenguria, Saboti, Turbo, Marakwet West, Bomet East, Mt. Elgon, Langata and Aldai had the total votes cast exceeding the number of registered voters.
Fact: The provisional register of 18th December 2012 and the register used on 4th march 2013 reveals that in all mentioned cases there is no constituency that had the total number of votes cast exceeding the number of registered voters.
4. Allegation: Form 36 was used and signatures were not present on the form.
Fact: Form 36 is used as a supplement to Form 34. If Form 34 is signed then it is only mandatory to confirm that the figures transferred therein from Form 34 are correct. Form 34 remains as the referral document.
5. Allegation: That IEBC allowed Kencall to host both TNA and IEBC Data hence TNA had access to IEBC Server which compromised the data.
Fact: This is an inflammable and baseless statement if there was ever one. It can be compared to stating that if Raila has a yahoo mail account and Uhuru also has one too, then Raila can gain access to emails in Uhuru’s account. Kencall is a company that offers hosting and connectivity services to anyone seeking such services, even to CORD if they so wished.
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KSB: You conveniently leave out the collapse of the electronic voting and tallying system that opened the process to manipulation plus other issues. The electronic system was supposed to send data to IEBC, not anywhere and therefore, your “yahoo comparisons” misses the whole point. Much of your defenses are speculatory while the purported facts you spew are circumstantial.
The bottom line is the Gazetted* voter’s register vs the register that was used by IEBC to rig the election. IEBC has refused to disclose to Cord the register it used and it is unlikely that you are the final authority on the issue with your additions and subtractions of register figures. You cannot go to court and begin to add or subtract figures to argue about the right register. From a legal perspective, such an approach is pedestrian. Cord says that if they use the Gazetted register, there is a difference in the figures and this is the crux of the matter.
You also side-line the key issue of election material found at Kenyatta University (which could point to evidence related to ballot box stuffing) and the question of verification of forms at Bomas (before announcements) which was abolished after IEBC reverted to the manual system. They chased all Party agents from Bomas so that they could manipulate the figures.
Further, you have conveniently left out the mega issue of 1.5 million voters whom, according to Cord’s evidence, only voted for Presidential candidates, a development that was not practically possible because every voter received all the six ballot papers. This situation is only possible under “vote stuffing” suggested by the Kenyatta university findings. Irregularities are too numerous so instead of pontificating unnecessarily from a lay man’s point of view, we leave it to the High Court for now because non of us has seen the real evidence.
You are reacting casually to a complex legal issue (and without the benefit of having seen the evidence) while you appear very ambitious to hold brief for Jubilee online which is fine depending on your political inclinations. In doing so, you are within your democratic right as per the new Constitution. The problem is that while doing so, you are trying to pose as though you are a neutral commentator. Other issues you have failed to address, and which have been published elsewhere are as follows:
1. Wajir North had a 92% Voter Turn-Out for a constituency whose history indicates 50-60%. In Wajir West, if the Final Register hadn’t been adjusted, 99.45% of the Registered Voters would have voted. In Nyaki East in North Imenti with 12000 registered voters 15300 are reported to have voted!
2. In Kajiado South, the people who voted (42,276) is higher than the people registered in Dec (41,040). Register adjusted to 46,218 to conform. In Sigor, the people who voted (19,704) is higher than the people registered in Dec (19,337). Register adjusted to 21,341 to conform.
3. “How does Turkana Central with 25,970 votes as at 18th Dec end up with 34,486 voters after reconciliation? Where did 8,516 voters come from?” asks Dr Makodingo, a political analyst on his twitter page.
4. Worse still Worse still, IEBC’s figures refuse to add up in spite of efforts to “correct errors”. Valid Votes (12,222,980) plus Rejected Votes (108,975) add up to 12,331,955 and not their tally of 12,338,667!!
5. “It is strange that 1,500,000 persons only cast a vote for a president and across Kenya this number is reflected in joint votes cast for Senators, Governors, Mps, Women Reps or County Reps. It is an obvious case of manual ballot box stuffing and double voting for Uhuru” says Statistics analyst Dr Makodingo.
About the Author
The latest news from the ICC is as Follows Francis Muthaura Kirimi set free But Muthamaki Kikuyu King Who rigged election in Kenya using NSIS Gichangi and Army Chief Karangi has to stand trial alone :
Look how silly Kenya Primitive ape-looking Kenyans who got job and instructions of how to use BEV tools, Yet many failed how to use, White-man’s gadget and may also ,forgot the Code! Why does it take many years for a Kenyan Nigger to master any subject? majority of the polling clerks forgot passwords for
the kits while others had difficulties decoding an in-built security
chip in the gadgets.” God save us!! How could people go to work without the tool they needed to perform their duties? How hard was it to txt IEBC and request for the password? Are we children to be treated this way?
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Kenyans on Facebook
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MIKE MUDAVADI: WHOOOP!!!! WHOOP!! Daddy’s driver is back now on my way to Muthaiga Golf Club *swimming*
*FIDEL ODINGA likes this, Comments: ‘You guy! You still hang out at that place with kina fathe!? Duuude!! Ebu try Bogoria Spa Resort its 45 minutes from Nairobi by chopper man…….
CAROL KENNETH comments: Wee Fidel umezeeka am soo joining Mike M huko…..I just love Muthaiga ….
ANDREW KENNETH: You guys si I like treat all of you to Panari Leo……let’s go skating for a change man….Ama how Sis?
RUTH RUTO: *jealous!!!* Wish I was in Kenya……
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(6 people like this)
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Wakenya on Facebook
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JAOKO OTIENO: No peace without justice!!!! Nitableed ndio walead!!
SIMON KIMUTAI comments: wee kwenda!! Tuliiba na wewe?????
(Liz Njoki and five others like this)
BONIFACE WANYAMA Comments: Kimutai, wakale munashida nkt! Sasa munadhani president anatoka chebarbar!?! Hata usiwahi kuniongelesha tukiopen campo.
SALIM OMAR Comments: Nyinyi wote ni mafala. Acheni chuki joo….sisi wote ni mabro na masiste!
NICHOLAS KIRIMI: Mimi si bro yako! Uliona mamangu akiolewa na babako? Rudi Somalia!
(Steve Oluoch and ten others like this)
JACK MWANZIA: Lakini nyinyi wasee hambambi joo…..acheni chuki. Nitawareport kwa Kibunja…….
JAOKO OTIENO: Kimbia! nkt. Sisi tuko na Kofi Anaan. Anyway guys………acheni chuki. Kuna watoi wa wazito hata hawaonangi citizen…..wanawatch vitu kaa Trace, E!, CNN……Hawajui munasupport mambuyu wao. Wewe unachop public campo hapa ukibishana na maroomy watano nayeye anachop States, UK ama Australia na hukam home once every two months aki fly kwa business class……kwake I.D.P inamean IPOD.DESKTOP, PHONE.
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NICHOLAS KIRIMI: I don’t care as long as nime vote in my guy. Si hio ni right ya kwangu??
JAOKO OTIENO: Atamimi ni hiyvo hiyvo No peace without justice!
Jubilee had to win these elections at all costs including by hook or crook or simply by any means necessary…
Do you honestly think they could have sat back and played fair? No-way ha ha! For Jubilee it was a matter of life and death. Like Raila put it it was a Sham!
Then they rush and quickly pause with President Kibaki, Security chiefs, Law makers…O my god!.. It’s a forced takeover digital style!
Osewe umeweza Hatari anaedhani ajuwa vyote na hizo hesabu ameokota mtandaoni utafikiri ni zake. Plagiarist mkubwa huyo!
Here is some of the evidence Mr Raila Odinga will rely upon in his petition against the IEBC, its Chairman Mr Hassan, and Mr Uhuru Kenyatta. It is also the only bit of his affidavit that contains numbers that can raise reasonable doubt as to whether Mr Uhuru Kenyatta received over 50% of the votes cast, keeping in mind an announced voter turnout of 12,330,028. Mr Kenyatta allegedly received 6,173,433 votes:
“a) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 5” an affidavit of Prof. Larry Gumbe the National Chief Agent for ODM complaining of the happenings at Bomas of Kenya particularly the transmission and tallying of results.
b) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 6 an affidavit of Johnson Nduya Muthama, Senator-Elect for Machakos County who complains of him and other CORD agents being ejected from the Tallying Centre on 6th March, 2013 before 5.00 pm. The IEBC continued the tallying and announcement of results without verification of the same by agents.
c) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 7” the affidavit of John Simiyu Inyimili from Cherangany constituency complaining of difference in results announced at the Constituency Tallying Centre from those announced at the National Tallying Centre at Bomas of Kenya- Uhuru’s Kenyatta’s votes increased by 422 votes (See Para 4).
d) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 8” an affidavit of Edward Aboki Begi from Bomachoge Chache constituency complains of the difference in results announced at the Constituency Tallying Centre from those announced at the National Tallying Centre at Bomas of Kenya-Uhuru Kenyatta’s votes increased by 3,800 votes (See Para 6).
e) I annex hereto in evidence and marked“RO 9” an affidavit of Patrick Meeme Lungé from Igembe North constituency complains of the alteration of the results announced at the Constituency Tallying Centre from those announced at the National Tallying Centre at Bomas of Kenya-Uhuru Kenyatta’s votes increased by 3,153 votes (See Para 3).
f) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 10” an affidavit of Kennedy Otieno Okal from Endebess constituency complains that the Returning officer refused to give him a copy of Forms 34, 35 and 36 and /or sign the same. he also complains that the results announced at the Constituency Tallying Centre different from those announced at the National Tallying Centre at Bomas of Kenya-Raila Odinga’s votes less by 896 votes (See Para 13).
g) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 11” an affidavit of Jackson Ole Nkamasiai from Narok East complains of being denied Form 36 and the change of results at the county Tallying Hall.
h) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 12” an affidavit of David Njogu Mwai from Ol Jor Orok Constituency complains of stoppage of electronic verification of voters using the EVID by the Presiding officers who then resorted to manual voting. The same happened during tallying. He was also denied copies of form 34 and 35.
i) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 13” an affidavit of Danson Kangari Richu from Ol Kalou constituency complains of stoppage of electronic verification of voters using the EVID by the Presiding officers who then resorted to manual voting. The same happened during tallying. He was also denied copies of form 34 and 35 and informed that the same will be sent to Nairobi.
j) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 14” an affidavit of Elizabeth Wambui Rimui Kipipiri complains that the results announced at the Constituency Tallying Centre different from those announced at the National Tallying Centre at Bomas of Kenya-Uhuru Kenyatta are increased by 655 votes (See Para 3-5).
k) I annex hereto in evidence and marked “RO 15” an affidavit of Boniface Njiru from South Imenti constituency complaints of bribery of voters by APK campaigners. He also complains of the failure by the IEBC Offcials to tally the results in his presence. The returning officer denied him Form 36.
l) I further rely on the evidence of Janet Ongera “RO 3” for ODM complaining of the happenings at Bomas of Kenya particularly the transmission and tallying of results.
m) I further rely on the evidence of Andrew Mwambogo Mwavua contained in affidavit marked “RO 16
102) I verily believe that the tallying process was shrouded in secrecy with no means for stakeholders to transparently monitor, account or verify the veracity of the results announced.
103) I annex hereto in evidence a Flash Disc marked “RO 17 a true record of the raw version or footage of the video recording of the televised announcement of the Presidential Election results that took place between the 5.00 pm, 4th day of March, 2013 to 9.00 pm, 9th day of March, 2013 at the Bomas of Kenya in Nairobi regarding the tallying and announcement by the Commissioners of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Review Commission of the Presidential Election Results for the 2013 general elections and a Certificate Of Authentication of A Computer Output Under Section 106B(4) of the Evidence Act, Chapter 80 of the Laws of Kenya) by one VICTOR GEORGE MULAMBE OWINO of Post Office Box Number 1177-00502, Nairobi within the Republic of Kenya being an adult male of sound mind and an officer employed as or in the capacity of a Director of The Creative Hub Limited.”
I am an amateur mathematician, and possess little or no legal education. But here are the operations I am relying upon to arrive at my eventual conclusion:
1. Establishing that Mr Kenyatta did not receive over half of the votes cast will be key in determining whether the election should be repeated or not. Just demonstrating that the IEBC (or other persons) committed election offences will not be sufficient to cancel the results. One must, in my view, demonstrate that the malfeasance was of such a magnitude as to alter the results such that, without it, the alleged winner would not have satisfied the constitutional requirement to be declared validly elected.
2. Adding up all the numbers mentioned as having been added to Mr Kenyatta’s tally, I come up with 8,030.
3. Additionally, it is alleged that Mr Odinga was denied 896 votes that were due to him.
4. It follows therefore that we must reduce Mr Kenyatta’s tally by 8,030, and reduce the total voter turnout by a similar margin, giving 6,165,403 and 12,322,884 respectively.
5. It follows, further, that Mr Odinga’s tally must increase by 896, and the total voter turnout be further adjusted by a similar margin, giving 5,341,442 and 12,323,740 respectively.
6. With these new figures, Mr Kenyatta will now have received a new 50.0286682% of the vote, while Mr Raila Odinga will have received 43.3427028% of the vote.
7. It follows therefore, that the malfeasances disclosed in this affidavit do not appear to alter the fact that Mr Kenyatta’s final tally surpassed the 50% mark. It must of course be borne in mind that the petitioner might have additional evidence containing numbers that will alter these calculations substantially, but I have only used material that is in the public domain.
8. Of course the petition discloses very grave election malpractices that may (or may not) have tilted the scales away from Mr Odinga towards Mr Kenyatta, but much of these, as outlined in this affidavit, are supported by mere suppositions and conjecture.
9. On the balance of evidence, therefore, (if this is the main evidence that will be relied upon by the petitioner, and this is of course a big IF) it follows that the likelihood of this petition being dismissed is exceedingly high.
10. If I were the petitioner’s lawyers (which I am not, given my lack of sufficient learning!) I would have employed the services of a person capable of doing arithmetic, with the sole task of discovering the minimum magnitude of vote-stealing and stuffing that had to be demonstrated in order to nullify the result solely on the basis of the over 50% vote requirement.
11. Perhaps the only straw available for the petitioner to hang on is the claim concerning a difference in turnout of about 13% between the presidential election and the other five elections that were conducted at the same place and time. If this claim is made, and proved, then the onus will be on the respondents to show where the extra 1.8 million votes came from, or went!
12. If the above claim is not made, or proved, whatever the findings of the Judges of the Supreme Court of Kenya, this petition stands on quicksand (as far as the plea for nullification of the presidential election is concerned) and the status quo will remain in two weeks’ time, and there is a very real possibility of Mr Kenyatta being sworn in as president soon thereafter.
DISCLAIMER
This is not a legal opinion n any sense of the word. The writer is not responsible for any repercussions that will accrue from the use of these here scribblings by any individual.
Beyond that, I will stick to my usual (non-legal) lane!
KSB: The good aspect of your post is the disclaimer. Add this to 1.5 million voters who only voted for President and the Jubilee victory crumbles. Voting for president alone is impossible once a voter receives six ballot papers. If Cord can prove this, the conclusion will be that these were stuffed votes.
Another issue is that Cord simply needs to show credible irregularities to show that the process was flawed. Further, there is the issue of the collapsed electronic voting system which made it possible for the results to be compromised. In summery, if Cord can show that more than 8.5k votes were stolen, we are back to election because that is the figure which makes or breaks the 50% mark. Just like yourself, this is my lay opinion.