Viewing cable 07NAIROBI3993, KENYA ELECTIONS: INTERNAL SECURITY MINISTER MICHUKI ON ELECTIONS
- Extraordinary fear of a Raila Presidency by Michuki
- Michuki trotted out a laundry list of anti-Odinga propaganda
- Odinga would feel compelled to avenge the murders of slain Luos Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko
- Kalonzo Musyoka and Musikaro Kombo were promised positions in another Kibaki Presidential term
- Odinga wouldn’t last more than a few months in office due to possible assassination
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003993
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LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
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TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: INTERNAL SECURITY MINISTER MICHUKI ON ELECTIONS
Classified By: PolCouns Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 B & D.
¶1. (C) Summary and Introduction: On October 8, the Political Counselor met with Minister of State for Internal Security John Michuki over lunch at Michuki’s swank hotel and country club on the outskirts of Nairobi. PolCouns had planned to have lunch with Michuki’s son Francis when Michuki unexpectedly joined the discussion. Michuki, who is a close associate of President Kibaki, made a point to disparage Presidential challenger Raila Odinga, but was otherwise unusually relaxed, philosophical, and somewhat detached. He gave the impression of being much more interested in the state of his golf links than the state of the nation. This is in high contrast to his usually engaged and combative stance. Although he is historically close to Kibaki, Michuki is one of several prominent Kikuyus in the cabinet who have been conspicuously excluded from the new Party of National Unity (PNU) campaign leadership, and is strongly associated with Kikuyu tribal interests. End Summary and Introduction.
ODINGA THE DICTATOR
¶2. (C) Not surprisingly for a Kibaki loyalist, Michuki trotted out a laundry list of anti-Odinga propaganda. He warned that Odinga, if elected, would behave like a dictator and build a Moi-style cult of personality. Michuki reminded PolCouns of Odinga’s studies in East Germany, alleging that his undergraduate thesis had been on building nail bombs. Michuki claimed that the Odinga family (note: Odinga’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, was a leading figure in the struggle for Kenyan independence, the country’s first vice president, and later an opposition leader) has long harbored a scheme to create a “Greater Luoland” in western Kenya, uniting Luo-speaking peoples of Kenya, Uganda, and southern Sudan. He noted the close ties between former Ugandan President Milton Obote and the Odinga clan, adding that Odinga would create an oppressive Obote-style regime.
¶3. (C) Michuki claimed that Odinga will say whatever he thinks will make him popular without thinking about the consequences, including telling Luos in Nairobi’s Kibera slum not to pay rent to their Muslim landlords. Michuki claimed that Odinga would feel compelled to avenge the murders of slain Luos Tom Mboya, an independence-era leader believed to have been killed by a Kikuyu, and Robert Ouko, a Moi-era foreign minister believed to have been murdered by Kalenjin Nicholas Biwott. (Note: Since the Kalenjin community has a traditionally antagonistic relationship with the Kikuyu and is currently largely backing Odinga, it is not entirely logical to suppose that Odinga would seek revenge against the Kalenjin.) Odinga would be pressured to avenge these deaths not only against the individual perpetrators, but against entire communities, said Michuki, setting off wider ethnic violence and possibly leading to a retaliatory attempt on Odinga’s life. An Odinga presidency would be ethnically divisive and short-lived, said Michuki, who added that he did not think Odinga would last more than a few months in office. Given Kenya’s history of high-profile political assassinations, this is not such a remote possibility.
THE KIBAKI CAMPAIGN
¶4. (C) Michuki admitted that the Kibaki campaign lacked internal discipline, tolerated too much infighting and was not staying on message. Kibaki is too loyal to those on his team, he added, even when their words and actions harm his political goals. Michuki conceded that both sides have some “bad characters” in their camps, but insisted that the Odinga-affiliated group, including William Ruto, Wycliffe Mudavadi, Cyrus Jirongo, Sally Kosgei and Fred Gumo, includes far more corrupt and criminal individuals. Michuki said that Kibaki is a peaceful man who is willing to retire gracefully if he loses and would not seek to use violence to secure victory. Michuki said that, in his role as Minister of State for Internal Security, he was committed to punishing political violence, regardless of who may be responsible for it. (Note: Michuki oversees all the police forces in Kenya and is charged with maintaining law and order.) Michuki believed that the recent surge in support for Odinga is a temporary one, and that when voters go to the polls, they will remember all that Kibaki has achieved and has done for them over the past five years. Michuki also defended Kibaki’s record on attacking official corruption, saying that prosecuting former President Moi would have been divisive, sparking ethic conflict and undercutting progress, and claiming that Kibaki’s is a government focused on the future, not the past.
POSTS FOR MUSYOKA, KOMBO
¶5. (C) Michuki noted that former Presidential hopeful Kalonzo Musyoka, an ethnic Kamba, could not be offered the Vice Presidency. The current Vice President, Moody Awori, is a Luhya, and the Kibaki team would lose more in Luhya votes than they would gain in Kamba votes by making the switch. Michuki noted that Kibaki might instead create a new post called “Chief Minister” for Musyoka to entice his support. Michuki said that Musikari Kombo, a Luhya who is currently serving as Minister for Local Government, would be offered the VP post and the politically underperforming “Uncle Moody” (the current Vice President, who failed to carry his own constituency in the November 2005 constitutional referendum) can move over to serve as Speaker of the House. Knowing our low opinion of corrupt businessman Nicholas Biwott, Michuki made a point of saying that Biwott would not be given a post in a second Kibaki government, but that Gideon Moi, the former president’s son, would be. (Note: Biwott, one of the richest men in Kenya, has been banned from travel to the United States for corruption and has been linked to the still-unsolved Ouko murder (see para 3 above); Moi is not much better as he has been repeatedly implicated in high-profile corruption cases linked to his father’s regime.)
COMMENT
¶6. (C) Michuki’s Odinga-bashing seemed perfunctory and lacking in conviction. Much of the anti-Odinga rhetoric seemed designed to bait us into taking an explicit stance against Odinga based on his Cold War ties and socialist roots. The aristocratic and wealthy Michuki no doubt has a personal dislike for Odinga’s populism, but he did not seem to believe the propaganda completely even as he was trying to convince us of its veracity. Overall, Michuki seemed worried about Kibaki’s prospects, but also proud of the accomplishments of the last five years. We are aware of Odinga’s past and family ties, but we do not share Michuki’s view of Odinga as a dangerous radical who would destabilize the region and undermine Kenya’s economic progress. That said, Luos (Odinga’s ethnic group) have felt excluded from power since independence and might aggressively assert their newfound strength, especially in the first few months of the new administration, possibly provoking considerable social tension rather than creating an environment for inter-ethnic cooperation and reconciliation. Considering regional voter registration and turnout rates, we still see the race as too close to call despite Odinga’s current lead in the polls.
RANNEBERGER
About the Author
The Followings are Countries likely to USE(follow) Tunisian &Egypt) Revolutions and Remove thugs like Michuki ans his cabals of evil.The Wall Street Journal has published a list of countries likely to be hit by anti-government revolts in the future.The top 10 potential hot spots are led by Kenya and Cameroon and include Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Morocco, Jordan and Azerbaijan. Libya, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia are in the next 10, together with Vietnam, India and Uzbekistan. The top 30 is then made up of countries including Colombia, South Africa, Iran, Venezuela, Belarus, China, Kazakhstan and Brazil. Saudi Arabia is 39 out of the 85, Russia is 40 and Kuwait is 51.The highest-ranked European Union country is Romania at 37.Bottom ranked is Sweden followed by Austria, Canada, Denmark and Germany. In terms of oil producers, Norway, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates look pretty safe
GEMA PNU brought Margaryans to Kill/Assassinate Raila Oginga the ODM leader>Read the wakenyas comments>hence the Kenya daily newspaper cannot name Mention the name of (killer Michuki)http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Diplomatic+cable+reveals+fears+of+a+Raila+presidency+++/-/1064/1116546/-/skd01vz/-/index.html
Wikileaks Latest Wikileaks cables Skip to content.Latest Wikileaks cables .
First assessment of the Standard raid
On March 10, 2006, Ambassador William Bellamy sent a cable to Washington with his assessment of the March 2 raid on the Standard newspaper. The cable says that Standard journalists said that State House believed that they had a dossier that implicated the First Family in cocaine trafficking. The cable noted that President Kibaki confirmed he would not sack Security minister John Michuki in the presence of First Lady Lucy Kibaki, policy adviser Stanley Murage, and Police Commissioner Gen Hussein Ali.
The cable provided early confirmation of the presence of “foreign mercenaries” (later revealed as the Artur Brothers). “Opposition and media figures believe the ‘mercenaries’ were imported to suppress information on State House corruption. They assert that the foreigners arrived last December after the government got word that John Githongo, the government’s exiled corruption czar, was about to go public with his detailed accounts of State House corruption”.
The mercenaries stayed at the Grand Regency hotel whose owner Kamlesh Pattni had bugged the presidential suite, according to sacked DPP Philip Murgor. Later they moved to Runda.
After the raid, according to the cable, First Lady Lucy Kibaki twice spoke to the uncle of a Standard journalist demanding that he hand over the suspected dossier. The Standard journalist told the embassy that he had no such dossier but that recently dismissed Presidential personal assistant Alfred Getonga was suspected of having left State House “with a sheaf of incriminating documents”.
Justice Minister won’t question police raid
On March 9, 2006, Ambassador William Bellamy sent a cable to Washington summarising a meeting between himself, the Swedish ambassador, a Dutch diplomat, and Justice minister Martha Karua and her PS Dorothy Angote.
The diplomats were concerned about the government raid on the Standard on March 2. “Karua’s responses over the course of the hour-long meeting were not reassuring”, Bellamy wrote in his cable. “Although she was disturbed by the police raid, her chief concern was that it had not been coordinated in any way within government. Security minister Michuki appeared to have acted on his own. Actions as serious as this, Karua said, ought to have been the subject of Cabinet consultations”, the cable states. “Until she had more facts, she was not prepared even to admit that the police were responsible for the raid or, if they were, that they had acted outside the law”. “As for reports that police had burned thousands of copies of the Standard, Karua denied that had happened. She suspected the Standard editors had burned the papers themselves to discredit the police,” the cable states.
The Swedish ambassador then joked that maybe the opposition had staged the attack to discredit the government and “Karua stunned us by replying that she couldn’t rule that out”. “She added that Kenya had a rogue press and something had to be done to bring press practices into line with laws and regulations”, according to the cable.
The ambassador concluded that the attack on the Standard “may be only the opening move in a campaign to intimidate critics and opponents of an increasingly shaky and directionless Kibaki administration”.
Meeting with Michuki
On October 8, 2007, Political Counsellor Larry Andre had lunch with Security minister John Michuki at the Windsor Country Club. Just three months before the election, Michuki was extremely hostile to presidential candidate Raila Odinga. “He warned that Odinga, if elected, would behave like a dictator and build a Moi-style cult of personality. Michuki reminded PolCouns of Odinga’ studies in East Germany, alleging that his thesis had been on building nail bombs. Michuki claimed that the Odinga family has long harboured a scheme to create a ‘Greater Luoland’ in western Kenya, uniting Luo speaking peoples of Kenya, Uganda and southern Sudan”. “An Oginga presidency would be ethnically divisive and short-lived, said Michuki, who added that he did not think Odinga would last more than a few months in office. Given Kenya’s history of high profile political assassinations, that is not such a remote possibility”, stated the cable. Michuki admitted that the “Kibaki campaign lacked internal discipline” but said there were many more bad characters in the ODM camp.
Michuki reportedly told the diplomat that Kalonzo Musyoka could not be offered the Vice-Presidency because they need the Luhya vote provided by Moody Awori and that Nicholas Biwott would not be a minister in the next administration but Gideon Moi would be.
The cable stated that “Michuki’s Odinga bashing seemed perfunctory and lacking in conviction” but added “we do not share Michuki’s view of Odinga as a dangerous radical who would destabilise the region”. It concluded that the embassy still saw “the (election) race as too close to call despite Odinga’s current lead in the polls”.
Kivuitu promises fair election
A month before the election, on November 13, 2007, Ambassador Michael Ranneberger sent a cable detailing his meeting with Electoral Commission chairman Samuel Kivuitu.
Kivuitu was described as “feisty, determined and upbeat” despite the recent appointment of new commissioners which meant that 19 of the 22 had been “unilaterally appointed by the Kibaki government”.
Kivuitu said “they seem to be responsible. I see no signs of bias so far.” He promised the ambassador “If they make it impossible for me to run a fair election, I will not quietly resign and fade away. No. I will hold a mass rally in Uhuru Park and explain to all the world why I had to resign”.
He said he was confident President Kibaki would give him a second five year term of office.
Uhuru Kenyatta meets Johnnie Carson
On June 3, 2009 Ambassador Ranneberger sent a cable to Washington summarising a meeting between Uhuru Kenyatta, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson and National Security Council Africa director Michelle Gavin held on May 12. “Gavin delivered a tough message from President Obama: the US would not do business with Kenyans who obstructed reform or encouraged political violence”, states the cable. “Kenyatta sought to deflect concerns… He blamed an irresponsible media and a slow moving Parliament for the lack of overall progress on the reform agenda”.
Carson said the US was worried about the increasing political tensions and extrajudicial killings that carried “the hallmarks of a police hit”. “The President (Obama) is worried that Kenya is headed in the wrong direction,” said Gavin. “Kenyatta said Kenya’s current political stalemate (over whether the VP or PM leads government business) could be managed and that it was simply part of the transition from one system of government to another”. “On extra judicial killings, Kenyatta condemned the actions but said there must be greater understanding of the context in which they are taking place,” said the cable.
Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidential ambitions
On June 26, 2009, Ambassador Ranneberger sent Washington an assessment of Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidential ambitions for 2012. “He appears to be moving to pave the way for a presidential run. While conventional wisdom says that another person from the Kikuyu ethnic group cannot succeed President Kibaki, political dynamics that make challengers seem weak may be encouraging Uhuru and his political supporters to rethink this”.
The cable states that Kibaki had effectively endorsed Uhuru as his successor by making him Finance minister and that his 2009 Budget had been very popular with MPs because of the big increase in CDF funds.
The cable notes that William Ruto “has made a number of private visits to State House in recent months, and he and Kenyatta are in close contact” and speculates that a deal might be underway that “Ruto might accept the position of vice-president or Prime Minister , and thus prepare the ground for a presidential run in 2017”.
However the cable stated “attempting to have another Kikuyu succeed Kibaki is a recipe for serious instability, perhaps for a meltdown much more serious than that experienced last year”.
When Uhuru met Ranneberger, he emphasised his reform credentials, according to the cable, including pushing for the removal of Police Commissioner Ali and Attorney General Amos Wako. “If he decided to pursue the presidency, Kenyatta has several major strengths, but these are balanced and potentially offset by important weaknesses. Kenyatta is bright and charming, even charismatic. He is enormously wealthy, and therefore has not had to engage in corruption”, states the cable. “Kenyatta’s liabilities are at least as important as his strengths. He drinks too much and is not a hard worker (although he he surprised everyone by the acuity of the budget which reportedly resulted from some tough work over long hours)”.
However the same cable was also dismissive of Raila stating “Odinga is increasingly perceived as feckless, unable or unwilling to govern effectively and move forward the reform agenda… He has clearly lost significant popular support.”
Serious coalition tension
On February 16, 2006 Ambassador Ranneberger sent a cable outlining “severe tensions within the coalition government.” It referred to the maize scandal and Raila’s failed attempt that month to suspend the Education and Agriculture ministers. “Based on credible reports from multiple sources, it seems clear that the maize scandal touches the families of both President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga, and key members of their teams (although Odinga’s side is likely more culpable on the maize scandal)”. “Faced with growing pressure, Kibaki and Odinga saw joint interest in taking limited action” and so suspended various officials on February 13, the cable states.
Michuki &Armenian brothers the Magharyans&sagasyans>http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/26/2830764.htm