When you listen to William Ruto open his mouth, sometimes you could be led to think that he is an intelligent young Kenyan politician who could change Kenya. But when you watch him take positions on issues that may require no more than common sense, you could begin to doubt his intelligence or wonder how he got into politics in the first place. This is because sometimes, he becomes unable to discern issues that have already been understood by the man in the streets.
As a political opportunist, one could have expected Ruto to understand the rules of political opportunism – you change sides or support allies according to the direction the political wind is blowing and in relation to personal interests. Another rule of political opportunism has it that sometimes, you may have to sacrifice your personal interests to follow the wind if failure to do so could lead to your own political waterloo.
In the run-up to the November 2005 Referendum, Ruto’s political reading was correct and although he had opposed the delivery of a new constitution during his days under former dictator Daniel arap Moi’s wings, he joined ODM in 2005 together with his KANU Party to oppose what became known as the “Wako mongrel” of a Constitution which was defeated at the Referendum. Ruto and company had played their opportunism correctly by reading the public mood and ensuring that they were on the winning side.
During the 2007 elections, Ruto was once again right in realizing that Kibaki and company would lose elections especially after losing the vote at the Referendum. He stuck with ODM, the Party won election but the victory was stolen from them by PNU thieves. After elections, Ruto’s ability to play political opportunism appears to be waning and the coming Referendum may mark the end of his political career.
After Raila appointed his part of the Cabinet, Ruto was among the first ODM politicians to claim that Raila had “short changed” voters in the Rift Valley, a province which, Ruto said, deserved more Cabinet positions by virtue of having voted for Raila “almost to a man”. At that point, Ruto accepted Raila’s position as an “appointing authority”.
When Raila suspended him from the Cabinet to pave way for investigations because of his alleged role in the Maize scandal, Ruto began to say that he wouldn’t recognize the suspension because Raila “was not the appointing authority”. This was a contradiction that played itself against a backdrop of Ruto’s political opportunism. When he was appointed Minister, Raila was an appointing authority but when the same authority suspended him from the Cabinet, he simply shifted the “authority” status to Kibaki as a matter of survival.
Just before the suspension, Ruto had gathered his forces against Raila Odinga on the Mau evictions. At that time, his new and equally opportunist allies – Najib Balala, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Sirus Jirongo and a hoard of other MPs mainly from the Rift Valley, saw an opportunity to besmirch Raila using the Mau mud. As they tried to “cut Raila down to size”, the main agenda of the Mau opposition politicians was to try and materialize a new ethnic alliance that was dubbed the “KKK Alliance”.
When the Mau issue was eventually rested on the hands of another government agency following advise by Raila’s strategists, the Mau oppositionists led by Ruto were also effectively disarmed. Ruto’s plan of using the opportunity of the Mau to build an anti-Raila opposition came to an end. It is then that he began toying with the idea of the Constitution as a new found weapon of fighting Raila while at the same time pushing his inordinate Presidential ambitions. However, Ruto’s adaptation of the “NO position” in the coming Referendum might turn out to be his last political gimmick that might precipitate a premature writing of his political obituary even before the 2012 elections.
The Church has lost authority in Kenya
The biggest problem facing Ruto is that he has misread the public mood on the issue of the Constitution and taken an untenable position because there is very little chance that Kenyans are not going to vote “Yes” for a new Constitution. Three main reasons drive this perspective.
Despite the obvious weaknesses in the Draft, there is a general public perception that the draft is far much better than what we have now. The general fear is that a “No” vote will indefinitely postpone the delivery of a new Constitution after more than 20 years of searching, create the opportunity of getting the draft back on the hands of vicious politicians where it might be mutilated even further and leave the country with the prospect of facing another general election with the old, colonial KANU-style Constitution at a time when the Coalition government led by Raila and Kibaki is in deep crisis.
On his “No” stand, Ruto is banking on the support of the Church and a bunch of MPs mainly from the Rift Valley whose agenda leans more on fighting Raila than fighting for a new constitution. Ruto, together with his new Church allies, will lose because the Church has no authority over political decisions of their supposed flock.
Following the 2007 post election violence, Kenyans (especially the youth) refused to listen to Church leaders who were calling for calm because leaders of certain Churches were known to have collaborated with top members of the PNU ruling class which rigged elections. Numerous appearances of certain Church leaders on TV to plead with the rioters fell on deaf ears as the post election crisis deepened. The level at which the authority of the Church has been eroded in Kenya is such that the public is unlikely to follow directives by Church leaders to vote “No”.
The Church is unlikely to influence the situation because Kenyans will vote according to the whims of their most trusted ethnic chieftains in government. The sway at the Referendum will not be decided by what is contained in the draft but what politicians have told their loyal voters during campaigns. At best, the Church will suffer dented credibility after they lose the vote while remnants of its remaining authority will also be washed away by the Referendum wave. This is my take over the so called “Church influence”.
Another problem for Ruto is that all his top allies have already understood that the “Yes” vote is going to carry the day and abandoned him. Balala, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka (whom Ruto was banking on for a “No Alliance”) have all declared that they are not with the youthful renegade especially on the question of the Constitution. When Ruto’s new friends began to test the waters with a new Alliance using the Mau issue, negative vibrations from the public also began to scare them and this could explain why this time around, they have decided not to make any further mistakes by following the rudderless Ruto blindly. For the first time, they seem to be dead right! As the Referendum approaches, Ruto ought to be a worried and lonely politician in todays Kenya.
Okoth Osewe
About the Author
Awinji Ratego.
I thought you were missing in action to koro eka miel mit.
Oto
KSB: kip in tach!
jakababa wach ka liech kendo lethal mar atari i support chutho