By Moses Kandie – March 1, 2013
Who is Joshua Arap Sang? For many people, he gained either fame or notoriety, depending on which side of the political divide you belong to, when he was charged for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court, alongside better known Kenyans.
Before then, he was a popular radio presenter at the vernacular radio station that broadcasts in the Kalenjin language, Kass fm. While listeners to Kass fm were familiar with his voice, The Hague court brought the images of a short dark man of medium built to our living rooms of other Kenyans. After the acquittal of the veteran politician, Henry Kosgey, Sang and Ruto are the remaining only ICC indictees from the Raila Odinga side of the coalition government.
And now again Sang has come to the limelight, this time not for ICC related issues but to debunk the myth and dispel the rumour that it was Raila Odinga who had orchestrated their problems at the ICC. Sang is not a politician. He is an indictee of the Hague court just like Ruto, Uhuru and Muthaura. That makes him believable and even an authority on matters ICC. Through his counsel Sang has read, seen and listened to all the incriminating evidence, and so when he says the case was a set up by the Mt Kenya elite, that should be gospel truth!
Political observers will realize that since Joshua Sang came out to exonerate Raila from accusations that he orchestrated the tribulations of the O’campo six, now Bensouda Four, neither the Jubilee coalition nor William Ruto has come forward to respond to him! What else did Sang say and what are the effects of his revelations? Other than disclosing that Raila was innocent on the accusations that he took anyone to the ICC, Joshua arap Sang also stated that the true culprits were in the PNU side, to which Uhuru belonged. He added that the problem of historical injustices, especially those related to land was most prominent in the Rift Valley and it was unlikely that Uhuru would be neutral referee or arbiter to deal with it decisively.
Not surprisingly, Sang’s sentiments have found support among common man (villagers) not just in Kalenjin land also in Masai land and far a way at the Coast! Sang’s sentiments runs counter to that of Ruto who has since been labelled the “willing seller turned wailing seller” by the revolting commoners in Kalenjin nation. Joshua arap Sang is not a politician. He is not in any direct contest with Ruto for any political seat or interest. But Sang has a massive platform and an influential one at that: he is a radio personality. He has a huge loyal audience who listen to him- more powerful than Caroline Mutoko and Maina Kageni combined otherwise why could the Kibaki regime set him up to the ICC case. He is eloquent, articulate and persuasive. He is believable and, he says he is speaking from his heart, from his conscience. Sang is speaking out his convictions! and its resonating well with the Kalenjin masses. And the Kalenjins are listening. Keenly! The ground is becoming increasingly volatile by the day. All this, with a few days to the general elections.
To be fair, it is not completely true to state that Sang’s revelations were completely surprising. The Kelenjin all along knew the accusations against the Prime Minister were propaganda. Propaganda is allowed in politics, and the Kalenjin community would not have minded propaganda against the Prime minister if it is designed to advance the political progress of one of their own; William Ruto. The Kalenjins love Ruto; he is pragmatic and a mobilizer. Like Sang, he is eloquent and articulate. He is a machievallian! Would it be safe to say that while Sang represents the conscience of the Kalenjin, Ruto is their political face?
Ruto’s initial decision to run for the presidency resonated well with the Kalenjin populace. They even advanced some math, even if implausible and remote that he could come second in the first round of the presidential contest and pull a miracle in any run off. To be honest, the Kalenjin don’t necessarily crave for the presidency just yet. Until just about ten years ago, Daniel Moi, a Kalenjin had been president for two and a half decades. The Kalenjin were just content without one of their own being president, even if that ran counter to Ruto’s personal ambitions.
They were content for Ruto to build a political base gradually. Our multi party political experience shows that the person, who eventually became president for example Kibaki or built an almost national constituency like Raila, did it over time. Raila has run for the presidency twice before. Kibaki ran twice before clinching it at the third attempt. There was nothing wrong for Ruto to bid his time. The Kalenjin were quite unhappy that Ruto denied them a chance to vote for him, to build him gradually for the national office some day. If he had run, he would have given them a chance to vote for arap Mibei, a man they are fond of, in the second round. By voting Ruto in the first round and giving the ballot to Raila in the second round, the Kalenjin would have killed two birds with one stone.
It is these issues that have been simmering in the mind of the Kalenjin in the streets. It has been festering like a swollen wound and through arap Sang; it has found an avenue to burst out. And it is bursting out with a bang!
What the Kalenjin elders and professionals are saying is that they love Ruto. He has been a voice to them. He is charismatic; he has a political future and they are happy for him. They would like to nurture him, like a child, for greater things to come. But like a loving parent nurturing his child, there is a time for tough love in the form of disciplinary measure, when the child displays truancy. Ruto has displayed political truancy. He strayed from the Kalenjin political script and they are going to show him tough love by voting Raila Odinga on 4th March, 2013
About the Author
Just enjoy Kenyans confused in Diaspora to make the matter worse in the USA .These guys are no better in terms of thinking than a std 7 mzungu toto>
Kalenjin Community Must(MUST) wake up and work this simple maths > NSIS led by Kikuyu -GEMA (general Michael Gichangi)set Ruto, Kosgei, Sang and even General Husein Ali into ICC !Just wait untill the case starts you will see Two great enemies cryinmg for the other blood-Ruto incrimanating Uhuru for the Killings and Uhuru reminding Ruto of Eldoret church grilling of Kikuyu toddlers and old Women hiding in The Church of GOD!
Kikuyus think that Uhuru will be President. Someone can’t win with just half of one province. We have 8 provinces in Kenya. Kalenjins will NEVER vote for Kikuyus. The moment UHURU wins, RUTO will be useless and Kenya will be very unstable.
Prophet Owuor has warned Kenyans against electing another Kikuyu as President. Kenya BE WARNED lest you invite the wrath of God.
National Security Advisory Committee Members: 1) Kimemia 2) Gichangi 3) Iringo 4) Mwangi 5) Muigai 6) Ndegwa 7) Karangi 8) Kimaiyo (the only non-Mt. Kenyan) SERIOUSLY KENYANS. Hawana hata aibu. SHARE WIDELY!!!
Mzee Jomo Kenyatta ruled Kenya for 14 years, Moi for 25 years, Kibaki 10 years. Its Central province 24 yrs & Rift Valley 25 yrs. Its still not late to give other regions a chance, we r all Kenyans. Lets Vote wisely, peacefully.
We can’t kill tribalism by replacing a KIKUYU president with a KIKUYU. We will only kill it by having ways of blocking such acts.
KIKUYUS think they are the only Kenyans. KIbaki has butchered the highest number of Kikuyus through his injustices and election rigging then the red eyed Kikuyu leaders blame everybody BUT themselves. Don’t vote a KIKUYU please.
Kalenjins, don’t vote for UHURU. You will forever regret. Please share widely.
Kibaki and Francis Kimemia refused to respect High Court of Kenya nullification of the illegal 47 County Commissioners’ appointment. Him and the 47 chose illegality. TRAGEDY OF A KIKUYU GOVERNMENT.
CORD PRESENT THE FACE OF KENYA WHILE JUBILEE PRESENT KIKUYUS………………………….LET’S END THIS
Nairobi County CORD aspirants……
Governor……..Dr. Evans Kidero.
Senator……….Dr. Margaret Wanjiru.
Women Rep… Ming’ala Silvia.
Members of Parliament…..
Westlands……..Timothy Wanyonyi
Dagoreti North…….Simba Arati
TOP KRA MANAGEMENT is full of Mt. Kenya members (Kikuyu, Meru and Embu)
1.Commissioner General: ———- Njiraini
2.Board Secretary: ——————-Mrs. Ngang’a
3.Senior Deputy Commissioner, Investigation & Enforcement: —–Mr. Joseph Nduati
4.Deputy Commissioner, Investigation and Enforcement: ——————- Mr. Namu Nguru
5.Deputy Commissioner, Administration: ———Mr. Karimi
6.Deputy Commissioner Procurement: ————-Ms. Murichu
7.Commissioner Customs: —————-Mrs. Wambui Namu
8.Senior Deputy Commissioner (Customs): ———Ms. Githinj
9.Deputy Commissioner, Enforcement (Customs):———–Mr. Maina
10.Deputy Commissioner, Finance: ——–Ms. Wachira
11.Commissioner Domestic Taxes (LTO)- ———–Mr. Njiraini
12.Deputy Commissioner —————— Mrs. Mwangi
13.Senior Deputy Commissioner, Finance: ——-Mrs. King’ori
14.Senior Assistant Commissioner, Security: ——Major Kariuki
15.Senior Deputy Commissioner, Southern Region: ——-Wagachira
We cannot TRUST another KIKUYU with Kenya. It will be thieving and ethnic allocation of resources. We MUST elect a NON-KIKUYU. We MUST free Kenya from the bondage of selfish tribalists who think that they are superior. They are just a hideous lot.
Again someone tell me if Raila was not a hero when he single-handedly campaigned for Kibaki (a Kikuyu) in 2002. Now he is a DEVIL because he is standing against a Kikuyu and presenting one formidable challenge. KIKUYUS should stop taking 41 other Kenyan tribes for granted. We demand respect.
A bunch of Kikuyus recently meet at Harambee House. The were Mutea Iringo, Thuita Mwangi the thief, Francis Kimemia, Gen Karangi, Ndegwa Muhoro. They call it a National Security meeting. It is a meeting conducted in Kikuyu language. That is the legacy of Kibaki.
Generally, and I say with conviction, KIkuyus are such a bunch of exploiters. They want everyone to support them but they will never support anyone. Look at the sectors of the economy they control. CHAOS!! God rescue Kenya. When will Kikuyus learn that Kenya has 42 tribes? This community is so so tribal and discriminative. They will rape, molest and kill in the name of protecting house of Mumbi.
Kalenjins be very aware that you are going to suffer if another Kikuyu becomes President.
Kikuyus should revisit their memory and tell Kenyans who they have ever voted for outside the Mt Kenya region for the presidency of Kenya in our history? The biggest tribal chauvinists who have polarised Kenya in all history are Kikuyus. We can’t vote in another KIkuyu.
The stealing of Raila’s Odinga’s Presidency had nothing to do with the Kikuyu worker, peasant, student or millions of Kikuyu youths suffering the ravages of unemployment, poverty, disease and deprivation like millions of other Kenyans. Poor Kikuyus in Mathare, Kibera, Korogocho and other slums across the country suffer alongside other ethnic groups. The Luo, the Luhya, the Kalenjin, the Masaai, the Mji Kenda, Pokomo, Kisii, Giriama, Turgen and members of other ethnic groups are also found in Mathare, Kibera, Kariobangi and other slums where life is basically hell on earth. Both Luos and Kikuyus in Mathare did not move to better houses because Raila and Kibaki had become buddies. For this reason, it is in the interest of all Kenyans that a government that can deliver and transform our country comes to power.
The stealing of Raila’s Presidency had everything to do with the tiny members of the thieving Kikuyu ruling class that surrounded Kibaki and that appears to have masterminded election rigging through ECK so that Kibaki, a member of their rich club, could cling onto power to enable this class to continue looting and plundering the resources of Kenya in collaboration with Western Imperialism that has been supporting every corrupt ruling class in Kenya since the Colonial Revolution in 1963. It has to be emphasized that the ordinary Kikuyu who paid the ultimate human price for the stealing of Raila Odinga’s Presidency had nothing to do with election rigging.
It is an accepted fact in Kenya that the ethnic group whose member holds the Presidency is of significance to both that ethnic group and other ethnic groups. Given a choice, every ethnic group in Kenya would like “one of their own” to reign at State House because of the illusion that such a power takeover would enable the “winning tribe” to have more access to State resources, which could be translated into development projects in specific areas, employment on ethnic grounds and an assortment of other “benefits”. Since flag independence in 1963, Kenya has been ruled by members of two ethnic groups: the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin. The first President, Jomo Kenyatta, was a Kikuyu; the second President, Daniel arap Moi, was a Kalenjin; the third President, Mwai Kibaki, was a Kikuyu; and after Kibaki stole Raila’s Presidency, the Kikuyu have produced a new President.
The situation when it comes to the Kikuyu in relation to Kenya’s Presidency is unique because a Kikuyu has been in power on two separate occasions prior to December 2007. After Moi, a Kalenjin, left the scene in December 2002, Moi had been in power for a total of twenty-four years. Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, held office for fifteen years while by the time the December 2007 elections came around, Kibaki, another Kikuyu, had held power for five years.
If Kibaki finishes his term after stealing Raila’s Presidency, he shall have been in power for ten years and this will bring the total number of years a Kikuyu has held power to twenty-five years in the forty-nine years of independent Kenya. This will mean that in these forty-nine years, the country’s Presidency shall have been held by two ethnic groups out of forty-two. Kenya is driven by ethnic politics and when Raila Odinga won elections in December 2007, the ethnic element played a big role. In as much as Kenyans voted for Raila as President, the political statement that Kenyan voters were making was that they did not want another Kikuyu at State House after Kibaki ran down the country with a clique of selected Kikuyu sycophants calling themselves Mount Kenya Mafia.
Kikuyu ruling class stole election because of fear of losing stolen wealth
According to my analysis, the stealing of Raila’s Presidency by the Kikuyu ruling class through ECK has postponed the possibility of another Kikuyu rising to the Presidency for an indefinite period of time. The difficulty of another Kikuyu coming to power if Raila could have been sworn in as President of Kenya may have been a powerful motive behind the rigging of elections because the Kikuyu ruling class understood that they were bound to lose everything they had stolen together with all that comes with their man sitting at State House. Why will it be difficult for another Kikuyu to come to power in the near future, assuming that future elections will be free and fair?
There is no debate that the Kikuyu are the largest ethnic group in Kenya. However, the Kikuyu vote alone is not enough to get a Kikuyu elected President and this fact has been demonstrated on four separate occasions in Kenya. The first time was in the December 1997 election when Kibaki presented himself as a candidate in the Presidential election alongside Raila Odinga and the late Kijana Wamalwa. This election was probably the most ethnic-based in terms of voting blocks because Kikuyus voted for Kibaki, Luos voted for Raila and Luhyas voted for Wamalwa. These are the three major ethnic groups in Kenya followed by the Kalenjin who voted for Moi. The impossibility of a Kikuyu rising to the Presidency in the next two to three elections (or even more) also applies to future Presidential candidates from any ethnic group as long as these candidates fail to form an inter-ethnic alliance encompassing the major ethnic groups in Kenya.
Raila was not elected in 1997 because the Luo vote alone was not enough and the same case applied to Wamalwa who could not ride to State House because the Luhya vote was short of the majority. After all major ethnic groups voted for their son, Moi had to rig elections to emerge as the winner because there is no way he could have commanded the majority of votes after the three major ethnic groups failed to vote for him. However, Moi had an easy time rigging elections because the votes were not only split into different blocks but he also had firm control of the State machine and this gave him a big advantage.
There was no post-election violence after Moi rigged the vote because none of the Presidential candidates commanded the support of the majority of ethnic groups while the votes were manipulated in a way that a clear winner who could claim to have defeated Moi did not emerge. Although the Kikuyu voted for Kibaki, the old man failed to make it to State House. Raila joined Moi after the 1997 elections because he was hoping to combine the Luo and Kalenjin vote in December 2002 and probably woo the Luhya vote in order to become President of Kenya; however, Moi derailed this strategy with the Uhuru project, which has been tackled elsewhere in this book.
The second time when proof emerged that the Kikuyu vote alone could not catapult a Kikuyu to State House was in December 2002 when Kibaki won the election leading to his installation as President. While he got almost all the Kikuyu votes, almost every major ethnic group in Kenya supported Kibaki because there was a huge and powerful anti-Moi wave across Kenya that swept Kibaki to power. Once he was betrayed by Moi through the Uhuru project, Raila mobilized the Luo to vote for Kibaki and Luos responded because they hoped that Raila would be rewarded with the post of Prime Minister. Wamalwa brought in the Luhya vote and this was easy because Wamalwa was destined to become Vice president. Then, Najib Balala roped in the coastal vote. A combination of Luo-Kikuyu-Luhya vote is almost impossible to beat unless the election is rigged. In 2002, millions of Kikuyus did not believe that Uhuru Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, would win under Moi and they dumped him to vote for Kibaki who was in a much better position of winning the election because he had a wider backing encompassing the big tribes in Kenya. If the Luos and the Luhyas refused to vote for Kibaki, he could not have become President of Kenya after the December 2002 election. This is an accepted fact in Kenya.
http://kenyastockholm.com/2012/01/09/a-kikuyu-presidency-in-the-near-future-will-be-difficult-part-1/
What do Kibaki men know or what are they planning?
Updated Sunday, November 27 2011 at 00:00 GMT+3
By Hassan Omar Hassan
It is highly unlikely that Kenya’s next president would be a Kikuyu. President Kibaki is not the iconic Nelson Mandela. It did not matter at the point of Mandela’s exit as president of South Africa that a fellow Xhosa would succeed him.
Yet Kibaki had an unparalleled opportunity to position himself as an iconic statesman, Africa’s reference point. We were at ‘Tahrir’ well before the Tunisians or Egyptians got there. Many then thought our democratic revolution of 2002 that ‘overthrew’ Moi and Kanu would give rise to the ‘African spring’.
Apart from some expanded roads with flyovers and an economic growth index, Kibaki’s legacy reflects an unacceptable institutionalisation of ethnicity. The imbalances in the recruitments in Public Service as supported by the report by the National Cohesion and Integration Commission to shameless dominance of all key sectors of Government. In 2002, it did not matter whether Kibaki or Uhuru Kenyatta became president.
From the unfortunate look of things, ethnicity will impact on the choice of president in the 2012 General Election. The 2007 presidential election were too ethnically charged. The Waki and the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights reports on the 2007 post-election violence provided a clear background as to some of the circumstances leading to the violence. Ethnic exclusion and imbalances, perceived victimisation particularly of Moi’s Rift Valley communities among a host of inequities and injustices.
You scar and bleed a nation when you willfully negate its sensitivities. To pass the microphone from one Njoroge to another, then to Nyoike and Murungi while addressing the soaring costs of energy. Or when Ndung’u passes the microphone to Kinyua then to Kenyatta to tell us why the shilling is losing ground. Or when the leadership of the country’s security apparatus is almost exclusively from Kibaki’s ethnic Kikuyu. You then wonder why there’s ethnicity in Kenya when the Government is working ‘tirelessly’ to patch your roads and build you new ones with flyovers. Kenyans are not idiots. We are a people endowed with sufficient talent, intellect and reason, alhamdulillah (Thank God)!
A possible Uhuru victory is premised on the G7 Alliance holding together. It cultivates on the common belief that Prime Minister Raila Odinga is behind their Hague predicament and consolidates itself on account of demonising Raila. If the cases proceed to full trial upon confirmation the unifying factor around the ‘Raila theory’ will puncture.
Many of the testimonies to the Waki Commission, the KNCHR and the Human Rights Watch on the violence in Rift Valley were from PNU co-ordinators and activists. I trust that a number of the Moreno-Ocampo witnesses in the Ruto case are too from this political divide. When the politics of the violence plays out at The Hague, many of the theories and conceptions would be demolished. The G7 Alliance, which provides a realistic formula for an Uhuru triumph might be unable to hold on account of these revelations.
The chances of ‘Kibaki’s men’ succeeding Kibaki rest on high improbabilities. It is therefore puzzling to read reports of how some of these operatives are attempting to centralise power through the devolution bills or such nonsense as locking out popularly elected governors from County security committees. Wisdom would dictate that there is more reassurance and ‘protection’ in decentralising power and ‘weakening’ the influence of the centre. In trying to decimate the motivation, one wonders what the Kibaki men know or are planning. Can they imagine a successor dictator president from outside their axis with an overloaded centre who proclaims to follow in these footstep and kufuata nyayo!
The whole Africa muat pray facing these Precious Mountains of GOD Who created such great&mightyMountains > Ati You must KugegagegaAma Kuregarega?
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/03/01/291462/israel-celebrates-successful-911attacks/
Read their dreams Jubilee dreams that will never become true!!
God fathers of impunity having killed ICC witness young men lost their lives Idps languishing in Camps .They are buying Votes bribing Voters Threatening Cord supporters, Distributing Fake Money printinghate and threatening Phamplets etc while Gema-Kibaki government is watching .and placing armed Police/Para-military Gsu etc on Cord areas to frighten and to threaten Cord supportersJUBILEE Coalition presidential flagbearer Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto have put up an elaborate plan to ensure they win the March 4 general elections in the first round. Their strategists have taken into consideration the possibility that Jubilee would have an uphill task beating their CORD rival Raila Odinga in a run-off especially if supporters of the Amani presidential candidate Musalia Mudavadi does not support them. Uhuru and Ruto, while on the campaign trail this week, have been asking the electorate and particularly those in their strongholds to come out in large numbers to vote and hopefully give them the majority votes in these areas. Their strategists have in recent weeks drawn up their first-round win “formula” that will enable Uhuru win decisively in the first round. Its this strategy which has been guiding the alliance’s campaigns this week as the countdown to the March 4 elections draws to a close
Cortruption and extortion has reached devilish level just watch greedy and rapacious thieving in RUTO -Land
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/ktn/video/watch/2000060383/-hawkers-demonstrate-in-eldoret
Kenyans on tenterhooks as election nears
After violence left more than 1,100 dead last vote, Nairobians are hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
James Reinl Last Modified: 01 Mar 2013 14:59
Nairobi, Kenya – There is an old saying in Kenya that the country witnesses two important migrations each year.
The better-known is the annual trail of wildebeest through the Maasai Mara. The other occurs every five years, when elections are held and Kenyans seek refuge from potential hotspots of ethnic violence.
Tensions are high ahead of next week’s vote, with the two presidential frontrunners neck-and-neck in an election race that has stoked ethnic divisions, and may unleash fresh waves of conflict.
While hoping for a peaceful vote, Kenyans are also preparing for the worst. Nairobi slum-dwellers have moved children and valuables to rural havens. Millionaires have private helicopters on standby for a quick getaway.
Shadrach Otieno lives in Kibera, one of Africa’s biggest slums. His mud-brick shack is empty except for a mattress. His wife, baby boy, television, furniture and other valuables were moved to his family home in western Kenya.
“We have worked tirelessly to ensure that peace prevails. But, if the worst starts again, we will lose many people and many houses will be burned,” said Otieno. “Neighbours cannot be trusted. Once it begins, your best friend will be the one who loots your home.”
‘Better safe than sorry’
Like many slum-dwellers in Nairobi, Otieno will cast his ballot on March 4 before catching a bus to join his family in Nyanza province, and watching the election drama unfold on television.
The ethnic killing spree that followed the disputed vote of 2007 still haunts Otieno. His father was among the more than 1,100 who died in successive waves of inter-communal killing. Victims were burned alive, hacked to death by machetes, and beaten with clubs.
“The things I saw in Kibera last time, I would never like to see again,” said the 21-year-old.
A few kilometres away in a leafy Nairobi suburb, businessman Alan Murungi, 35, is making less drastic plans. His gated compound is typical of luxury living in Kenya’s capital, with barbed-wire walls, a swimming pool, and round-the-clock guards.
“We were all in shock last time around and never realised the violence would reach that level,” said Murungi, owner of a European-style bistro and brewery. “It’s better to be safe than sorry. [I’m] stocking up on food, fuel for cars, back-up generators and mobile phone credit.”
The entrepreneur has beefed up security for his business and held back on new investments until a president is sworn in. Kenya’s predicted economic growth rate of at least 5.5 percent for 2013 would be hurt by election violence, the International Monetary Fund said.
Embassies and charities with regional hubs in Nairobi have urged expatriates to stock larders and fill bathtubs with water, ready for outbursts of street violence that could make travelling through this city of three million people risky.
“I wouldn’t criticise anyone who’s leaving, because it’s quite a sensible thing to do,” said Alun McDonald, spokesman for the aid group Oxfam. Only a handful of the charity’s 18 international staff will vacate Kenya for the elections, he said.
“Expatriates and wealthy Kenyans have already bought tickets and sent their children out of the country,” added Carol Njeri, a travel agent with Imperial Air Services. “Tickets are selling at high-season prices. The really rich, we never hear from them. They already own their own helicopters.”
Old-school politics
With only days left before Kenyans go to the polls, East Africa’s biggest economy is gripped by political horse-trading, unexpected alliances and ethnic rivalries that pre-date independence from Britain in 1963.
The presidential frontrunners hail from Kenya’s dominant tribal dynasties. Raila Odinga, the current prime minister, is from Kenya’s sizable Luo community, which has never had a tribesperson in the nation’s top job.
Odinga has alleged he was cheated out of the presidency in 2007 by then incumbent Mwai Kibaki, who is stepping down after two terms. Back then, foreign mediators brokered a power-sharing deal between Odinga and Kibaki to halt the bloodshed.
Odinga’s main opponent is Uhuru Kenyatta, a member of Kenya’s biggest ethnic group the Kikuyu, and the millionaire son of the nation’s independence leader, Jomo Kenyatta.
Kenyatta – along with running mate William Ruto – will stand trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in early April, as one of those accused in orchestrating the 2007-08 violence.
It remains to be seen whether Kenya can move on from the political turmoil of the past.
The 2010 constitution, judicial reforms and a new election commission will help “turn the page on the bloodshed of five years ago”, a report by the International Crisis Group said.
On the flip-side, Joel Barkan’s study for the US-based Council on Foreign Relations presents disaster scenarios that could “plunge the country into a renewed period of political instability and set back Kenya’s democratic advance”.
According to one Western diplomat, the vote will be “fantastically close”. Avoiding a re-run of post-election violence hinges on one of the frontrunners “accepting defeat” after votes are counted, the envoy said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to comment publicly.
“If you have a grievance, go to court,” was the diplomat’s advice to presidential aspirants. “Don’t instruct your people to go out on the streets.”
Gangs getting ready?
While ordinary Kenyans have been preparing for election dangers, evidence has emerged that troublemakers are also getting ready for the ballot.
Hate leaflets designed to stir up ethnic tensions were found in the coastal city of Mombasa and Kisumu, in west Kenya. Kibera residents talk of political gang-members bulk-buying machetes and other crude weapons.
A letter to the chief justice, purportedly from a Kikuyu militia, warned that its members are “more armed and prepared” than in 2007-08, when they self-confessedly “chopped off a few heads plus circumcised” tribal rivals.
Back in Kibera, Celestine Adipo, 39, a mother-of-five and market vendor, is fearful that ethnic militias will unleash more mayhem on Nairobi’s slums than they did in 2007-08.
“We’re in a panic mode here, like it is going to explode,” she said. “But I’m penniless. I can’t afford to take my stuff upcountry. I can’t stop people breaking down my door. If trouble starts, all I can do is run to the nearest police station.”
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/02/201322611354830290.html
Kenya: The election beyond belief
By Parselelo Kantai in Nairobi and Patrick Smith in Mount Kenya
Friday, 01 March 2013
With memories of 2007’s post-election violence still fresh, Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta face off in 4 March elections. Should there be a second round, Kenyans could go to the polls while running mates and former rivals Kenyatta and William Ruto undergo trial at The Hague.
It was a brilliantly choreographed piece of political theatre.
As the cannon fired a torrent of confetti over the heads of the Jubilee Coalition’s ‘big four’, a 5,000-strong crowd jubilated around them in the amphitheatre in Nairobi and presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta raised his party’s manifesto in the air.
The manifesto unveiling was broadcast live on Kenya’s many private television channels, streamed live on the internet to the diaspora and relayed via social media by eager and youthful internauts.
“The promise of uhuru [freedom in Kiswahili] has been deferred for far too long. It can no longer wait,” pronounced Kenyatta, punning on his first name. Just a month before polling day, every part of the manifesto launch was designed to convey Kenyatta’s presidential ambitions.
Political razzmatazz on the big stage blended with power point ruminations of the Jubilee Coalition’s agenda.
It ranged from free milk and solar-powered laptops for primary school children to free maternity care for expectant mothers and included interest-free bank loans for the youth, livestock insurance for pastoralists and a pledge of double-digit economic growth within five years coupled with a plan to eradicate poverty altogether.
At face value, the Jubilee Coalition’s manifesto was seductive but significantly free of any costings or timescales.
When The Africa Report asked candidate Kenyatta how the country could afford such programmes at a time of spiralling budget deficits, he responded: “What we need to focus on is the software […] those are not necessarily cash outlays or major projects, we just need to create an enabling environment for businesses that will create jobs. I’m looking at government being a facilitator.”
BIG PROMISES
Such nuances were drowned amid the grandiose promises. The four-hour manifesto launch was pulled off with pinpoint efficiency by an army of volunteers clad in red and black, the party colours of The National Alliance (TNA), the party Kenyatta launched barely seven months previously to run his presidential campaign.
“We have what it takes to take this country to the next level,” said William Ruto, Kenyatta’s running mate.
Among the crowd, Ruto’s supporters could be identified by the yellow and black baseball caps of his United Republican Party, which had merged with the TNA to form the Jubilee Coalition.
Together with the two other members of the ‘big four’, National Rainbow Coalition leader Charity Ngilu and Najib Balala of the Republican Congress Party, they aimed to create a movement to represent much of Kenya.
After the event, as Kenyatta moved from one live interview to another on the media balcony, patiently explaining the finer aspects of Jubilee’s manifesto, it was clear that the mission had been accomplished.
Hardly a single question touched on his and Ruto’s impending trials at the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of organising killings after the 2007 elections.
When we asked Kenyatta how he would respond – if elected president – to the West’s threat to avoid all dealings with him because of the ICC charges, he responded with a practised equanimity: “We have no problem with them. They are free to take their own decisions. Kenya is an independent country. We will work with those that want to work with us, but we will also establish new friendships. For me, it is Kenya first!”
Within 24 hours of the manifesto launch, three opinion polls, all of which had previously shown Kenyatta trailing behind frontrunner prime minister Raila Odinga, judged the presidential race to be a statistical dead heat.
Behind Jubilee’s political success is a group of young volunteers that has campaigned across the country.
There is, too, the expertise of the foreign political lobbying firms that both the leading candidates have hired.
Kenyatta’s team picked London-based BTP Advisers after his nephew and chief of staff, Jomo, attended a dinner with Britain’s deputy prime minister Nick Clegg.
Both Clegg and finance minister George Osborne extolled the virtues of BTP.
Part of BTP’s role was to advise on how to manage foreign criticism of Kenyatta’s decision to stand while facing charges at the ICC.
Accordingly, BTP has tapped into a scepticism about the court. Kenyatta and Ruto paint the court, based in The Hague, as the last hurrah of European colonialism.
The irony that this message is crafted by a British lobbying firm is lost in translation.
THE HOVERING HAGUE
On 10 and 11 April, Ruto and Kenyatta will begin their trials at The Hague.
They are charged with offences including organising mass murder, rape and civilian evictions during Kenya’s post-election violence in January and February 2008.
Should the presidential elections on 4 March go into a second round of voting, the two candidates may be called to The Hague as Kenyans again troop to the polling booths.
“This election is about the ICC. Full stop. It’s not about development. It’s not about the future,” says political analyst Peter Kagwanja, a one-time key Kenyatta supporter who now styles himself as an independent analyst.
He continues: “The strategy for the Jubilee Coalition is winning power, not win- ning the country. They [Kenyatta and Ruto] imagine themselves to be on the warpath. That’s the mentality.”
Kenyatta sees things differently.
Explaining why he chose to run for president, he said: “I think the most important thing is recognising the need for national reconciliation and healing and knowing that our ability to move forward as a country is predicated on this.
“My relationship with [Ruto] has grown out of that. We believe that Kenya is not going to achieve its full potential if we keep the issue of ethnic reconciliation off the table.”
HEALING THE RIFT
The success of Jubilee’s efforts at reconciliation in the Rift Valley is difficult to gauge.
But Jubilee’s popularity in the Rift has benefited from months of joint Uhuru-Ruto campaigns and a sense that Prime Minister Odinga abandoned the Kalenjin community after the 2008 peace deal.
There is, too, the mutual sense of victimhood among the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu.
“Uniting the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin [on the Jubilee ticket] was a smart move because it is a guarantee that there will likely be no violence in the Rift Valley during or after the elections,” predicts Kagwanja.
He adds: “There’s a truce at the moment even if the underlying issues [between the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin] have not been resolved.”
What analysts refer to as the ‘ethnic garrisoning’ of the Kikuyu and Kalenjin people – between them representing more than one third of registered voters – has put Prime Minister Odinga under pressure.
At 68, Odinga has perhaps his last realistic chance at winning the presidency. Opinion polls have consistently placed him as the race’s frontrunner.
The last time he was behind in the polls was in mid-2007 – six months before the last elections.
Odinga has been both victor and victim of the February 2008 peace deal.
He got his job as prime minister but has since lost key allies in the Orange Democratic Movement – Ruto, Balala and Ngilu – all of whom have crossed over to the Kenyatta campaign.
So Odinga’s premiership has been constrained by the machinations of his coalition allies, and he has lost political traction in several key ethnic constituencies.
As events moved against him, Odinga – the political sorcerer – pulled another rabbit out of the hat.
His alliance in December with vice-president Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, 59, was inspired by a mutual need to shore up dwindling numbers.
Odinga supporters may have cringed at the sight of their leader embracing his old foe on the steps of the Kenyatta International Conference Centre, but Odinga and Musyoka went ahead and announced their Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), which has revitalised the Odinga campaign.
It changed the ethnic arithmetic and Odinga’s team says it is confident of winning the presidency in the first round.
ALLIANCE ADVANTAGE
“We expect about 55% of the votes cast or about 6.6m votes. The alliance with vice-president Musyoka has given us an advantage as he has brought the Akamba vote with him,” says a close advisor to Odinga.
Registered voters number 14.4 million, according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) raw election data.
Projections of a 5-6% Odinga lead are in line with the calculations of Odinga’s consultants from Bell Pottinger, an affiliate of the British firm that so successfully marketed the Conservative Party’s Margaret Thatcher.
Bell Pottinger polling is now regarded as among the most accurate, but it is far too discreet to comment publicly about the electoral outcome.
Analysts on the Jubilee campaign dispute these numbers. Buoyed by the high registration figures in Kenyatta’s Mount Kenya stronghold – IEBC data shows that the region averaged higher-than-expected voter registration numbers, with the rest of the country averaging slightly less than 80% of the numbers predicted – Kenyatta’s sup- porters believe they have a built-in lead over Odinga.
“Every Luo and Kamba vote will have to be cast twice to catch up with the [Mount Kenya] and Kalenjin vote,” says political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi.
Others demur: “The assumption that the Kalenjin will vote 100% in favour of the Jubilee Coalition is doubtful,” says University of Nairobi political scientist Adams Oloo.
Although reports suggest that Jubilee’s campaigns in the Rift Valley have helped overcome the Kalenjin’s antipathy to Kenyatta, Oloo argues the region’s allegiances remain divided.
DANGEROUS GROUND
Many analysts now say the race is too close to call.
That raises the spectre of a repeat of the 2007 violence. Again, land is at the centre of the campaigns.
Just weeks before the elections, Odinga reopened the controversies by pointing out that the Kenyatta family had been among the main beneficiaries of the massive post-independence land grab.
In return, Kenyatta promised radical land reforms.
Devoting much of his manifesto launch to land, Kenyatta said: “Land should be used as a resource to address food security and create jobs. Dwelling on select ownership is a way of promoting hatred, which the Jubilee Coalition is against.”
Prime Minister Odinga told The Africa Report that all this obscured efforts to obstruct the land reform measures in the new constitution. “The attempt to muffle the debate on land is unconstitutional.
The cabinet has twice asked the president to gazette the National Lands Commission. He has twice refused.
There are very powerful forces that have no interest in land reform in this country. It is part of concerted efforts to roll back the gains we have made so far with regard to constitutional reform. The shape of the new constitution will be determined by who wins the elections.”
The growing antagonism between the two leading presidential contenders has raised political temperatures, with the National Cohesion and Integration Commission and the newly appointed inspector general of police David Kimaiyo attempting to dampen down the tension.
Others see the potential for the land debate to escalate into violence. “The principal issue that led to the violence last time is land.
It has not been addressed. I’m not being a prophet of doom, but I think it is un- realistic to proceed on the basis that violence cannot recur,” says veteran lawyer and activist Paul Muite, who is also a presidential contender representing the Safina party.
To Muite’s sobering warning must be added the concerns that much could still go wrong in Kenya’s most complex election ever.
Voters will directly elect the president and vice-president, 384 members of a two-house legislature, 47 governors and 47 county assemblies under the new devolved structure of government written into the new constitution.
No one seems certain whether the new arenas for electoral competition will defuse or aggravate tensions.
Optimists insist, however, that the symbolism of these elections – 50 years after independence – and the bright economic prospects on the horizon will deter activists from repeating the bloody clashes that occurred after the last election.
Few on the campaign trail want to contradict that view as they keep their fingers tightly crossed.
http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/kenya-the-election-beyond-belief.html
Is this going to happen in Kenya Soon (or) Kenya is not Ivory Coast ?