Viewing cable 08NAIROBI239, KENYA,S ELECTORAL CRISIS — PUSHING KIBAKI-ODINGA
- Martha Karua’s hard line stance against Odinga was a big problem in negotiations
- Musyoka wanted Raila to remain in Opposition
- Kibaki said: “I cannot have Odinga in the government” and was opposed to executive PM
- Cables reveal behind the scenes US Embassy lobbying to get Raila to talk to Kibaki
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000239
SIPDIS
FOR S, D, P, G, R, DS, DRL, AND AF/AS FRAZER FROM THE
AMBASSADOR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA,S ELECTORAL CRISIS — PUSHING KIBAKI-ODINGA
MEETING AND NEXT STEPS
REF: A. NAIROBI 238
¶H. RANNEBERGER-FRAZER TELCONS JANUARY 20 AND 21
Classified By: Ambassador Ranneberger, reasons 1.4 (b,d)
¶1. (C) Summary. In the lead-up to Kofi Annan,s expected arrival January 22, we have continued to press for President Kibaki and Raila Odinga to use that opportunity for a face-to-face meeting and to launch a meaningful political dialogue. Achieving that would go a long way towards calming tensions and ending violence. Both have reaffirmed their commitment to meet. Both said they agreed in general terms with the non-paper I presented on the way forward (ref A), but each said they would want a number of changes. This message reports on my meetings with Raila Odinga, Vice President Musyoka, and President Kibaki. End summary.
Meeting with Odinga
¶2. (C) I met with Odinga on January 18 to stress the importance the U.S. attaches to resolution of the current crisis through a political solution, and made clear we expected Odinga to meet with Kibaki under the aegis of Kofi Annan. Odinga told me: “I am ready to meet one-on-one with President Kibaki, without pre-conditions, in the presence of Kofi Annan.” Odinga also said that the non-paper on the way forward, which I reviewed with him, could, with some small changes, serve as the basis for discussions between the two sides following a Kibaki-Odinga meeting. (One of Odinga,s aides, however, subsequently came back to me with extensive proposed changes.)
Vice President Musyoka
¶3. (C) On January 20 I met with Vice President Musyoka. During a one and a half hour discussion, I made clear to Musyoka that we expect him to use his leverage within the government to support a political solution. Kibaki and his Party of National Unity, I pointed out, need Musyoka and his Orange Democratic Movement ) Kenya party in order to have any semblance of legitimacy, since his votes plus those cast for Kibaki clearly constitute a majority of votes cast (and in order to have at least a near-majority in Parliament). I reviewed U.S. policy at length and told Musyoka that he will destroy his political future if he participates in a government that is not broad-based and seen as reflecting the will of the Kenyan people. Therefore, it is in his interest to work for a political solution.
¶4. (C) Musyoka repeatedly emphasized the importance he attaches to his friendship with the U.S. and his commitment to work with us to achieve a political solution. Musyoka said that Kibaki is willing to meet one-on-one with Odinga in the presence of Kofi Annan. Musyoka tried to take credit for mobilizing government efforts to promote dialogue. He claimed that he and Uhuru Kenyatta went to Kibaki, telling Kibaki that he is isolated and that the government needed to develop a strategy to demonstrate commitment to dialogue. That, he said, is why a committee for dialogue and reconciliation headed by him was announced (see below). He recognized that the presence on the committee of Minister of Justice Martha Karua, considered one of the staunchest hardliners against compromise with Odinga, is a serious problem. (He did not mention that his own leadership of the committee is a huge issue, given the personal animosity between him and Odinga as a result of their split in the run-up to the elections.) Musyoka confided, as is generally believed, that as a quid pro quo for his accepting the vice presidency position, Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta agreed to support Musyoka as candidate for the presidency in 2012. Perhaps reflecting the reality that he does not want Odinga brought into the government, Musyoka argued that Odinga should remain outside of government as leader of the opposition in Parliament.
¶5. (C) Musyoka did, however, recognize that there must be a comprehensive political solution. He focused particularly on the need for electoral and constitutional reform. I reviewed the non-paper with him. With minor proposed changes, he said he thought it would be acceptable to Kibaki.
¶6. (C) Musyoka also said he understands the need to lift the ban on demonstrations, indicating this might happen within a week. He also said that, in response to my letter to the Minister of Security, allegations of the use of unjustified deadly force by the police are being investigated. He urged that efforts be made to dissuade the opposition from holding demonstrations in the coming days that could lead to more violence.
Kibaki
¶7. (C) During a one-hour meeting with President Kibaki on January 21, I emphasized the U.S. position on the urgent need to launch a process of dialogue leading to a political settlement of the election crisis. Kibaki reaffirmed that he is ready to meet with Odinga under the aegis of Kofi Annan. Noting that it was Odinga who backed out of the meeting which Kibaki had agreed to during President Kufuor’s visit, Kibaki expressed skepticism that Odinga would actually meet. Kibaki complained that “Odinga keeps putting conditions.” I told the President that Odinga had reaffirmed to me his willingness to meet without preconditions, and Kibaki welcomed this. The President said he talked with Annan on January 21 and will see him early on January 23.
¶8. (C) As do we, Kibaki sees a face-to-face meeting with Odinga as the starting point for launching a dialogue between persons they designate. However, the President made clear that he has certain bottom lines and that he is deeply skeptical that Odinga will ever agree to anything “reasonable.” Kibaki said “I cannot have Odinga in the government. It is impossible to work with him. Some of his people could come into government, but not him, and not Ruto.” I pushed back, but the President was adamant. “We effectively already have power-sharing, with the ODM (Odinga,s party) controlling Parliament,” Kibaki said.
¶9. (C) He then launched into a detailed review of his concerns regarding ongoing violence. He did not blame Odinga for this, saying it is clear there are forces beyond his control. He said that William Ruto, one of the members of the ODM,s “pentagon” leadership, is largely responsible for continuing violence in Rift Valley. The need to end such violence must be a major issue in any talks, Kibaki insisted. I agreed and made clear that we have pressed Odinga and the other pentagon members on the need to send clear signals against violence. When I argued the need to allow peaceful demonstrations by the opposition, Kibaki said that this could not be done while violence continues in Rift Valley (with incidents as recently as last night, he said). “Odinga must help restore normalcy,” Kibaki said. Kibaki agreed that a meeting between him and Odinga, and the immediate launching of a process of dialogue, are key to ending violence.
¶10. (C) Kibaki carefully reviewed the way forward non-paper that I presented to him. He said that the paper was in general terms fine, but that certain changes needed to be made. He specifically said that it was right to focus on the importance of constitutional and electoral reform. However, he said that creating the position of an executive prime minister was not something that should be considered. When I pushed back, he said, “I know this is what Odinga wants, but it is not appropriate for Kenya.” Kibaki agreed on the point calling for an independent investigation of electoral irregularities, but said this should be established pursuant to the filing of a legal petition with the courts regarding electoral irregularities.
¶11. (C) I complimented the President for his dignified manner while hearing some very tough attacks on him during the parliamentary session to elect the new Speaker. The President said it had not been easy to sit through such comments, but he was proud that his team handled the ensuing debate so skillfully, resulting in the ODM Speaker actually ruling in favor of the position taken by the President,s Party of National Unity. He said he will work with the Speaker to convene the Parliament at the beginning of March.
Next Steps
¶12. (C) Annan will arrive on January 22 and will work to bring about a Kibaki-Odinga meeting. I will share the non-paper on the way forward with him in the event he thinks it could be useful as a framework for dialogue between the two sides following a Kibaki-Odinga meeting, and to give Annan a sense of our thinking.
¶13. (C) Interestingly, when I met with former presidents Chissano and Mkapa on the 18th, they suggested that the two sides should form delegations prior to the arrival of the eminent persons. When I met with Odinga on the 18th he also floated the idea of the two sides forming delegations for “talks about talks” to set the stage for a Kibaki-Odinga meeting. I emphasized to Odinga that having such preparatory talks was a recipe for failure. As he well knows, I said, a face-to-face meeting is imperative to start the process of dialogue, so the two can then give instructions to their respective teams. I expressed my concerns about this approach with Chissano and Mkapa as well.
¶14. (C) On the 18th, the government announced formation of a political committee to spearhead national political dialogue and national reconciliation. The members include: Vice President Musyoka, Minister of Security Saitoti, Foreign Minister Wetangula, Minister of Finance Amost Kimunya, Minister for Local Government Uhuru Kenyatta, Minister of Justice Karua, Attorney General Wako, and Member of Parliament Mutula Kilonzo (who is close to Musyoka and is the lawyer he designated for the overnight review of the vote tally carried out at the KICC on December 29). Odinga considers Musyoka a traitor for having deserted the ODM in the run-up to the elections. Saitoti, Kimunya, and Karua are considered extremely hardline against any real political compromise.
Comment
¶15. (C) It appears, based on these discussions, that there is a reasonable chance that Annan will succeed in getting Kibaki and Odinga together. Such a meeting will probably result in agreement to appoint representatives of the two sides to follow up, thus launching a dialogue. However, from what we know of Odinga,s position and from Kibaki,s comments above, it is clear that the two sides are very far apart and that achieving a meaningful compromise political settlement will be very difficult. Although the two sides could eventually coalesce around agreement to constitutional and legal reform, achieving agreement on investigation of electoral irregularities, establishment of a truth and reconciliation commission, joint efforts to end violence, and power-sharing will be a huge hurdle ) if Odinga wants to come into the government (and have 50 percent of all positions, as he has stated before).
RANNEBERGER
About the Author
This is How Mental Patients are Tortured by Kenya Rulling class govt>http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/03/kenya.health.why/index.html
President Kibaki should know that his term is over and should leave Kenya in a peaceful manner.What will it benefit his people when he leaves them in Civil war? If you wedge war to fight expect to be fought it is 50/50.
Where was Kibakhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeOHp4bzg04&feature=relatedi during Wagalla Massacre?>
This issue is very explosive and might even be the last nail in Uhurus political coffin. These are allegations which if proven can send Uhuru to the Hague for the rest of his life.
There is something else here. Its looks as if there is an effort on the part of Uhuru “not to die alone” hence is recent (mis)behavior in public. Even though G Njoroge of mungiki is gone, his followers are still around. Incase a credible local tribunal is instituted, Njoroges followers might come out en mass and pour their hearts out for they will feel having been used.
Uhuru on the other hand is telling the retired generals, who helped him kill people that he wont be going down alone hence his erratic behavior in public. He has completely panicked.
Remember that the principals have agreed on the issue advertising for the post of CJ but we have not yet heard anything as far as the AG is concerned. My opinion is that PANU is looking for a way of bulldozing Uhurus cousin Muigai (PhD) into the position of AG. RAO must watch out. Kenyans must watch out. ODM must not sleep. This is high octane politics.
All the bulldozing is to be done in the name of saving one Uhuru Kenyatta. Ruto does not feature in PANUs thoughts as far as the above is concerned, not for a moment, even though he might think so. The circumstances, however, might find him at the right place at the right time or vis-a-vis.
ARE WE MISSING SOMETHING BIG HERE? THIS GOLD THIEVES, DRUGS & GUN TRAFFICKERS ARE DEADLY AND GUESS WHAT HON SAITOTI AND THE COMMISSIONER OF POLICE KNOW WHO THEY ARE!! MY QUESTION IS ARE THEY SCARED OF THIS THUGS OR ARE THEY WITH THEM IN THE CRIMES?
Cheptarus, the slain KRA senior assistant commissioner, had been seconded to the investigations team. He was shot dead at around 1.15am last Saturday, as he entered his home in Nairobi’s South C Estate. The team had established that Nairobi had become a popular transit point for gold merchants from the DRC, serving genuine and illegal trade for overseas markets, because of lax security.
This is a huge one and once again it all revolves around Kibaki’s wife, Mary Wambui. That means the investigation will go nowhere. Mary Wambui is pretty much the unofficial president of Kenya. She will meet her fate one day but this is a joke of an investigation as usual. But Kabila is pissed. He had the strangest meeting with Kibaki. He came from the airport straight to Harambee House they had over two hour meeting and he left straight. No formalities no nothing. You can bet Kabila knows Kibaki’s wife has robbed him and he is mad like hell.
As usual Wambui’s thugs kill cops doing investigations any time they want and nobody can say anything. They chomoad that CID commissioner bila problem. What is going to kill them is that some cops tired of their colleagues being killed are going to talk. Little wonder Kibaki is so terrified of his sucession. He needs his ass covered otherwise him and that thieving wife of his may end up in a very bad spot after 2012. Wambui should watch out too. There is no honour among thieves. He is going to need an army of those cops to keep her alive. She has entered the league of top notch gangsterism. There are no rules in that game.
It now official
SH is the nerve center through which mayhem, murder, corruption and grand felonies such as illicit drug trade, illicit gem trade is conducted and coordinated.
We know Mary is behind the drug trade with vijanas like sonko and livondo being the proxies.
We know Mary was behind artur mamluki
And now it is obvious that she is behind the gold smuggling.
What illicit trade is she involved in? Human trafficking?
We are talking about the WIFE OF THE PRESIDENT, who hails from othaya Nyeri!
We are talking about the head of PNU here folks.
This is not a small matter.
Now why would anyone in their right minds want this group in charge in the next administration?
Hata kama ni from their own same tribe!!
Watch this Video & make your judgement>
>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QKkWE1pQlA
Where is Ruto? MR Ruto is with the PNU who killed this KRA officewr>http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Slain+KRA+official+buried+amid+calls+for+probe+into+gold+saga/-/1056/1119896/-/oha1eu/-/index.html<<
Why did Ruto skip such occassion?
Here Kosgey Pourin g the beans to Kenyas Govrnor Ranneberga>She talked & Yapped kama KAss FM>.
Wikileaks RUTO CAN DUMP UHURU-WIKILEAKS Skip to content.RUTO CAN DUMP UHURU-WIKILEAKS .
Saturday, 05 March 2011 00:05 BY STAR REPORTER . CLOSE ALLIES? William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta enjoy a joke in 2010
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WILLIAM Ruto could dump Uhuru Kenyatta, according to the latest Wikileaks cable quoting Sally Kosgei.The cable on June 2, 2009 says that ambassador Michael Ranneberger dined on May 12 at his Muthaiga residence with the then Higher Education minister, US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Johnnie Carson and National Security Council director for Africa Michelle Gavin. “She expects that Ruto will abandon Uhuru if he stumbles or is no longer useful,” said Ranneberger in the cable.
She confirmed that Ruto, Uhuru and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka were working on an alliance primarily as a reaction to the Waki Commission. “Ruto, in Kosgei’s view, is working with Uhuru to block key reforms and scuttle the Waki Commission’s call for a local tribunal to investigate post-election violence,” said the cable which noted that “Both Ruto and Kenyatta are believed to be on the Waki Commission’s sealed list of 10 architects of post-election violence”. “Kosgei (an ethnic Kalenjin) expressed doubt that Kikuyu voter in Central and Kalenjin voters in Rift Valley will be willing to set aside the violence suffered at each others hands to form a coalition in 2012,” the cable states.
In 2009, Kosgei had not yet switched to join the rebel ODM group around William Ruto but she was still privately critical of party leader Prime Minister Raila Odinga. “Kosgei believes that Odinga truly wants to achieve the reform agenda but does not have the organisational discipline to do so. Raila had not office structure and no discipline in his life or schedule,” the cable states.
She “quote former Salim Lone as observing that Odinga has made it this far in politics by the force of his personality without having to demonstrate managerial acumen”. “Odinga is unwilling to sack corrupt deputies and is overly focused on protocol issues and ODM inclusion in appointment decisions such that it distracts his attention from the broader reform agenda,” the cable states. “Though Kosgei and her ministers have access to Odinga, he often agrees to meet late at night when he is tired and unfocused”.
However Kosgei concluded that “Odinga, despite his flaws, remains the strongest candidate in a crowded field thanks to strong opposition credentials and an accessible personality”.
She was dismissive of other candidates. “Uhuru is hindered by laziness and a very hands off approach to running the Ministry of Finance” and had also been damaged by the fiasco of financial inaccuracies in the 2009 budget. “Minister of Internal Security George Saitoti has been appointed to every position he has held and lacks the skills to fight effectively for the Presidency.” “Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi lacks the energy and money to seriously challenge Ruto,” she said. “On the PNU side Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is a diminishing asset who frets that he will be overshadowed by Mutula Kilonzo,” the cable states.
Kosgei told the Americans that Kibaki and Raila “have no difficulty reaching agreement on issues but for different reasons are each incapable of advancing reforms. She noted from her own experience in Cabinet meetings that two principals are in a mutual admiration club (in Cabinet they always agree).” “Kosgei noted that Kibaki agrees to reforms in principle but is beholden to the corrupt interests of his inner circle.”
She agreed with the Americans that Civil Service boss “Francis Muthaura has accumulated inordinate control over government functions”.She defended Martha Karua who had just resigned as Justice minister. “Karua is a good woman, and an ally for reform, but she fell into the trap of believing that Kibaki actually seeks to reform the judicial sector,” the cable states. “Karua’s replacement as Justice Minister, Mutula Kilonzo, used to to be the lawyer to former President Moi. Kilonzo is a windbag and not strong enough to take on the vested interests of the current regime, Kosgei observed, but she expressed the hope that he would undertake at least minimal reforms of the judiciary.”
In response to a question from Carson about extra-judicial killings, “Kosgei responded by noting that all security organs remain under the control of Kibaki’s PNU party. Because PNU leaders believe that Police Commissioner Ali did them a favour during the past election by cordoning ODM strongholds, Kosgei expects that PNU will block any substantial police reforms and will retain close control of the police, GSU (paramilitary), and military in advance of the 2012 elections”. “In this context, Ali is permitted to utilize extrajudicial killings to control organised gangs such as the Mungiki, which threaten to disrupt Kikuyu politics by operating in the heart of Central Province”, the cable quotes her as saying. “The police freelance in extorting money from the gangs and execute legitimate critics such as the Oscar Foundation principals”, the cable states.
She was also critical of NSIS director Gen Michael Gichangi as “a man who has no energy” and “is more interested in collecting information on ODM leaders than issues of national importance”.
The conclusion of the dinner was that “sustained broad public pressure will be required to move leaders beyond their marrow political interests to serving the interests of the country”.
Kwani Kibaki na Futa bangi?>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3aaN6bzsWA&feature=player_embedded