Does William Ruto understand the main forces behind his predicament?
On the surface, William Ruto, the Eldoret North MP, might draw sympathy as an innocent victim of vicious machinations by local power barons bent on “finishing him politically” ahead of 2012 General elections. But, if the contours of Ruto’s current ICC-linked tribulations are accorded a forensic examination, the Rift Valley politician might be forgiven for harboring strong beliefs that his Party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), is responsible for his political wores with Raila Odinga as ring leader.
In the recent past, three key developments have played significant roles in influencing Ruto’s political posture; the revival of a court case featuring corruption charges against the former Minister, the sacking of Ruto from his position as Minister for Higher Education and the MP’s decision to travel to the Hague in connection with looming ICC indictment of suspected perpetrators of the 2007 mayhem. The ICC threat is of particular interest because if Ruto ever becomes Ocampo’s customer in The Hague, his political career will, most likely, go up in smoke.
Ruto’s political problems began soon after he embarked on an antagonistic role in his Party, ODM. As he continuously picked on mundane issues to fuel political conflict between himself and his Party leader, Raila Odinga, he equally reiterated his intention to dump the Party and present himself as a Presidential candidate in 2012. When a national Referendum on a new Constitution was called, Ruto exploited the opportunity to move even further from the ODM position by opposing Party policy and proceeding to lead the “No” campaign when his Party’s official line was to endorse the document. Although he lost the vote by a landslide majority, the point that was brought home to the Kenyan electorate and keen observers alike was that Ruto was done with ODM and that his continued membership in the Party was more technical than real.
Who controls ICC’s agenda?
The politics of Kenya is mainly controlled by the United States and the United Kingdom. Because of the vast political, economic and strategic interests of these imperialist powers in Kenya, chaos that erupted in the country following the stealing of Raila Odinga’s Presidency in December 2007 were quickly brought to an end through a joint intervention of both the US and UK ruling classes. At the height of the crisis, Condolezza Rice, former US Secretary of State, travelled to Kenya to warn “the Principals” to work towards a solution to the crisis because the United States was not ready to see Kenya “go to the dogs”. How is the role of the US in Kenyan politics connected to Ruto’s current predicament?
Obviously, neither ODM nor Party of National Unity (PNU) controls ICC. The UN body is popular as an instrument of US imperialism in relation to checking personalities perceived to be working against US interests. Slobodan Milosevic was indicted by the ICC because of American influence due to Milosevic’s opposition to United States’ imperialistic policies around the world. Charles Taylor, former Liberian president, is currently a customer of ICC because of his anti-American stand when he was in power. After fleeing to exile in Nigeria, the Americans influenced the Nigerian government to create conditions for Taylor’s arrest before he was nabbed in an apparent botched attempt to flee Nigeria. Although Israel has a history of war crimes against the Palestinian people, no Israeli leader has ever been indicted by the ICC because of America’s pro-Israeli stand.
In the case of Kenya, both the US and UK governments understand that there is no suitable and immediate successor to Kibaki apart from Raila Odinga. For this reason, the US has been propping up Raila Odinga with Ambassador Michael Ranneberger openly engaging in Kenyan politics and making public pronouncements that have been more accommodative to ODM than other political parties. During the Referendum, the US government fell short of overtly campaigning for a “Yes” vote as Ruto crisscrossed the country opposing this position. At one point, Ruto even warned the Americans against taking sides during Referendum campaigns.
Although Ruto is not an immediate threat to Raila’s Presidency due to lack of national influence, he is viewed more by the United States as a potential “spoiler” whose activities could interfere with a smooth power transition after Kibaki’s departure. The United States government is not known to sit by and watch elections without trying to influence results especially in a country like Kenya where it has vast interests.
A history of US intervention in internal politics
In Algeria, the US government instigated the army to seize power after a “wrong Party” (Islamic fundamentalists) won elections while in Venezuela, the CIA masterminded a coup that temporarily toppled President Hugo Chavez before he was reinstated after a mass revolt by the people of Venezuela.
In Haiti, the US engineered the departure of former President Jean Bertrand Aristide while in Grenada, the US was blamed for the assassination of President Maurice Bishop who disagreed with the United States politics of control. When Thomas Sankara took over power and converted Bukina Faso into a Marxist-Leninist State, the US masterminded a plan which led to his assassination and power take-over by Capt. Blaise Compaoré. These are just a few examples of the interventionist policy of the United States when its interests are at stake. Ruto is not an immediate threat to the United States but in order to safeguard its agenda, the US will try to put roadblocks on Ruto’s way so that his “Spoiler potential” can be subdued and the ICC Project is part of this strategy.
Throughout his life, Oginga Odinga’s political ambitions were frustrated by the United States government because of the late Odinga’s supposed “Communist” leanings. During the 80s, banning of Movements like Mwakenya (which was seen to be leftist) together with detentions and forced exile of perceived Kenyan leftists were all carried out as part of a program for preserving Kenya’s brand of capitalism and keeping the country’s leadership under US influence. Ruto does not fall within the leftist ideological bracket and, just like other conformists, he remains a populist who bases his support on ethnic politics. For the US government, he could be more of a nuisance than a threat and any attempts to frustrate him through local court cases or ICC indictments are limited measures as long as the long term goal of a smooth transition can be safe guarded.
If ICC was genuinely seeking the real perpetrators of the 2007 slaughter, then whoever was in charge of government (read President Mwai Kibaki and his kitchen Cabinet) should have been the first to be indicted. This has not happened because such a move is not in the interest of the United States and could also muddy the waters in a volatile situation. If truth were to be told, mass slaughter took place in the Rift Valley but Security forces acting on orders from above executed thousands of Kenyans with some executions having been captured on video.
Corruption cases that have been brought against Ruto are mild compared to mega scandals like the Goldenberg scandal, Anglo-Leasing, the Helicopter repair scandal, the Nexus Scandal, the Naval Ship scandal, the Euro Bank scandal and several tax evasion scandals that have all not been resolved. Corrupt politicians who were involved in these scandals are sitting in the Cabinet without any threat of being taken to court, why? Unfortunately, Ruto does not yet understand the real forces behind his tribulations and he will, most likely, continue to blame Raila Odinga as he seeks to make political capital out of his perceived problems. Once again, the “hidden hand” in Kenyan politics is at work but the victim is too blind to see it.
Okoth Osewe
About the Author
This is what I have been telling my friends, that odm alone cannot take Ruto to the Hague regardless of Raila’s influence. I agree with you.
Kudos Bw. Osewe. This is one of the most correct analysis I have read lately.I think you should take Keters and Kiutunyis position as Rutos advisor. You could save him alot of money. But who cares about his money anyway, afterall, he stole it from innocent poor Kenyans? His 40 days may be catching up with him.
Keep it up!!
Jack Edmunds Mulo.
KSB: Asante Ndugu Jack.
What we want is the evidence against all of our leaders. I believe that ALL of our leaders played a crucial role in the incitement of Kenyans. Did u hear Mwakwere when he was fighting for his Re-election saying Luos should get out of his constituency? Again, guys lets think seriously here…who was killed during the 2007-08 PEV? It was the women, and the poor and the youth…And who were killing each other?..ordinary poor Kenyans…Why? simply because of the “rigging” and why the rigging? Cos of the “heated campaigns” – after all….and what does that mean…We kenyans are fools, who we shelter our leaders and ready to die for them…Are they ready to die for us? Hell NO. I think it is therefore convenient not to metnion some specific names of the politicians, but let’s generalize that PEV was a consequence of weak political whatever in Kenya..One love Kenya..Lets love each other.
“The way I understand it is simple: We want The Hague or a local Tribunal to deal with impunity cases that have dogged us for almost two decades now. In setting up a tribunal or sending suspects to The Hague, let us agree that anybody found to have been sufficiently involved in planning and executing the violence that caused the lives of innocent Kenyans should never be spared. If in the end we find that Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto or George Saito was involved, we will pray that the law takes its cause”.
Those Kenyans who think Ruto visited Ocampo for a cup of tea hold your horses. This is just but the beginning. One question leads to another. Just wait until Ruto is recalled. Each statement he makes and says will be tested, verified and re-examined. After the second appearance those RV mps and suspects asking for appointments with Ocampo will all go quiet. The international judicial process is not subservient to Kenyan political happenings. So just wait
The office of the prosecutor at the ICC said on Saturday that Ocampo was in London on Thursday and Friday, making it impossible for him to have met with Ruto. This contradicts earlier reports that the former Minister met with the ICC boss. Ruto was however not immediately available for comment.
Osewe, thanks for presenting another dimension to Ruto’s antics. His trip to The Hague last week caught many people unawares, especially those adversely mentioned in the Waki Report. He seemed to have leaped ahead of the pack to meet Prosecutor Ocampo so as to set the record straight, by telling “his truth” concerning the post-election violence (PEV). He is also suspected to be among the key personalities mentioned in Ocampo’s secret envelop.
At first, Ruto’s move sounded prudent and heroic. However, he might have willingly led himself into the crocodile’s open jaws in the name of cutting a deal (read a plea bargain), when his moment of prosecution comes.
According to an earlier source: “5 Cabinet ministers received letters from ICC. For the records, ICC has not limited its investigations to PEV of 2008. According to Ocampo, the investigations stretch back to 2006 when Michuki was killing youths suspected to be Mungiki, and when Kibaki was ordering the killing of villagers in Mount Elgon as if they were dogs. Among these five members of the Cabinet, only ODM’s Ruto has offered to meet ICC. This meeting is being held strictly at the request of Ruto and has no bearing on investigations that are ongoing. According to the Kenya National Human Rights Commission (KNHRC) and the Waki report, Ruto is accused of financing marauding youths to evict members of a certain ethnic group in Rift Valley. His cell phone was identified by Safaricom as having been the originator of hate speeches and eviction notice. Together with the late Kipkalya Kones and Hon. Laboso, they were recorded as having called others “madoadoa” and “sangiri” in reference to communities they wanted out of Rift Valley.”
It’s been confirmed that Ocampo was in London during Ruto’s visit, and did not hold any interview with him. Could it be that Ocampo tactfully avoided him so as not to be influenced by his defense? Ruto is used to manipulating the Kenyan justice system and might have thought that going to The Hague would soften Ocampo’s position against him, but I guess the prosecutor has so much dirt against him.
The latest news is that Ruto claims KNHRC paid six key witnesses to falsify information concerning the PEV. Why is it coming up almost three years later? If Ruto knew this from the start, he should have mentioned it a long time ago. Ocampo’s team has been in Kenya so he should have volunteered the information earlier.
I agree with Osewe that Ruto is not aware that he is just a cog in the wheel of Kenya’s post-Kibaki political era.
KSB: Well presented and thanks for your compliments. Ruto is a young politician who should have been exploiting his position to show the Kenyan youth the road to revolution as a way out of the crisis but he is also stuck with populism, ethnic politics (aka my Kalenjin people) and narrow self-interests. His case is evidence that a young leader without progressive ideas is as good as the Octogenarians who should have gone into pension after running down the country.
Hello,
Its a canon , that that empirical and irefutable evidence must and should be aviled to both parties before any decision in arreved at implicating another or others of committing actsthat could well be ,within the defination of being one ,or a group who insitgated ,the plan to cammit genocide.Its not for those that have sheltered protectection ,no matter what was ,to cast asperstions of any kind.This is best left to parties fully engaged in ,i,e invesitgations ,documenting witnesses observation and the legal frame work that I.C.C has set into motion.
It is also very prudent to desist ,as most of those in the “diasapora” tend to ignore , to habitually opine as if we have our pulse and insider knowledge of the ongoings about corruption and immediate developements as of the day.It is incumbent,upon the civil society to hold its collective breath,so as to allow that which is playing out is not watered down ,by ethnic passion,nor unduly unwarranted commentaries by those who have no knowledge of the real going on’s as of the momment.
It would be prudent ,after the process in “THE HAGUE” has played out ,then then all sundry can comment and give a plebian verdict.Ean Wuod Luo
Odera Otieno
Hi .
Suggested reading ,Blood and Soil by the foremomost scholar today about investigative research on then origin and reasons ,that contribute to vindicative measures ,which in the end turn to be termrd as war crimes , polictically related violence then genocide.Ben Kiernan ,Yale Professor of History ,Founder ,Chair ,Department of Genocide Studies at Yale and Cambridge.
I am impressed by all the comments except that from Odera Otieno’s, that goes against the grain. Why does he think those in the Diaspora are ignorant of corruption and development issues in Kenya? Why does he think that “all and sundry” should wait to comment after The Hague process? For his information, Ruto’s visit is in the public domain and can be commented upon by anyone.
Instead of such a meaningless commentary, Odera should have given his legal opinion on some of the structural weaknesses or challenges within the ICC. For example, why do some people call it a toothless Court? Why does the USA have a ‘hidden hand’ in its operations yet it’s not a member? Why has the Obama Administration agreed to have a “positive, principled engagement” with the ICC, contra Clinton and the recent Bush Administration? What is the Rome Statute? Why is the ICC deemed helpless in the case of President Bashir of Sudan? Why is it defied by the African Union?
Odera should have explained to some of us without a legal background, the expected implications behind Ruto’s trip to the ICC. Unfortunately, he wants us to sit quietly in the Diaspora and wait for the verdict then opine, without providing any legal complication in airing our minds beforehand. He should be reminded that so far, nobody has judged Ruto.
Ruto’s appearance at ICC is just a rehearsal of the actual case. Once the ICC issues warrants of arrest (or whatever the court will deem fit to summon PEV suspects) to the suspects, then the real business will begin after their arrival at The Hague or wherever the ICC will decide to sit!
I’ll be sleeping more soundly when the actual perpetrators are put behind bars. What they do in the meantime to prove their innocence or lack of it is not my concern. Kenya is beginning to change, Amen.
Since the new Constitution was adopted, the rate of chest thumping and the ‘untouchable syndrome’ seems to be fading. If Samoei Ruto can actually take himself to the Hague, then he knows things have changed and there is nowhere to hide.He might be innocent by all means, but the action in itself is such a blow to impunity. He recognizes he is no longer untouchable. If you think you are untouchable today, please stand up!
Ocampo is a smart man.The Kenyan media have always been reporting the PEV perpetrators without mentioning names but it looks like the Ocampo law rattles them to come out of their cocoons and reveal their identities. Let’s see the other PEV top shot hooligans revealing themselves without being asked. The law works in mysterious ways I say. At least now we now have one name to follow through: Ruto!
“If The Hague process is truly about addressing the impunity that has dogged Kenya for a long time, it must remain clear that there are very few top politicians that can claim to be clean of the impunity. The two principals cannot be absolved while their soldiers bear the brunt of the prosecution. No matter that there were people who executed the orders on their behalf, those people acted on the instructions of or misguided ambitions of their principals. Therefore, if the generals are to be indicted, it is only befitting if not imperative that the principals should lead the pack as they did during PEV. Otherwise, the Hague process would be a cosmetic approach to addressing the roots of impunity. Why should ICC come for William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta and leave Kibaki and Raila? If Uhuru and Ruto are guilt of crimes against humanity for post election violence, Kibaki and Raila are more guilt on the same account. Why should Kibaki and Raila get a soft landing? Who doesn’t know the two were protecting the interests of their masters? Didn’t Waki tell us that some part of violence was planned in the house on the hill?”
By Goerge Nyongesa – Bunge La Mwananchi
Hello ,
I would like to know which gran it is that am going against.Maize,millet or sesame.Well in every dicussion that harbours serious national and international implications divergence of opinion come up ,its my stand that the main players be let to comply by the standards set by the I.C.C,so at this juncture to have any form of analysis ,which presumably has reached ,gathered from reading posts and also by the fact that those affected have first hand witnessed the atrocities,its not now up to the Court of Public Opinion to try and find solutions,That is the duty of the I.C.C. Let the process roll on to its final conclsion then talking heads can have all the airtime
KSB: Wuod Luo, welcome back from holiday.
Kenya’s Political Crisis: A reflection
http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/kia020608.htm
Hello,
To sit down and give my or any legal opinion, at this stage still remains a legal opinion.What the I.C.C has in its docket ,all the talking heads have no hither nor thither about it.I will repeat in as much as Jaduong Osewe pens his position ,no body ,repeat nobody will influence the I.C.C It is not as if that the body politic(I.C.C) is influenced by known sources,however the the fundamental princples of justice ,equity and propriety exit within the process.So talking heads should, and have to desist from premature assumtioms of guilt of any one adversely mentioned in the reports that the I.C.C may decide to prosecute.
Ean Wuod Luo Odera
KSB: Tonny, why the rant when my prima facie was Ruto’s apparent lack of cognizance of the likely background forces that may be pulling the strings in the situation?
Hon Ruto has not been indicted nor charged at the ICC. The Court has clear procedure that a suspect is accorded to challenge witnesses and the evidence before the Court. Instead of issuing unnecessary and inflammatory statement with intention of causing public confusion, he should learn to respect the rule of law and Court processes.
Honourable Ruto must understand clearly that the ICC judges exercise inherent power to take any necessary measure to deal with ancillary matters in order to ensure the integrity of judicial proceedings which ultimately maintain respect for justice. In any case the Court has a thorough process to punish conduct which tends to obstruct, prejudice or abuse the Court’s administration of justice.
At this moment Hon. Ruto is only a possible suspect. If he is ever indicted by the International Criminal Court he will be furnished with all documents and evidence and given the necessary opportunity to challenge them.
It’s worrisome that Ruto and Co. are now accusing the KNHRC of coaching and bribing witnesses to falsify info about Ruto’s role in the PEV. Two such witnesses have gone public in the Kenyan media. Amazing too that there is info about a Kenyan Minister who attempted to bribe Prosecutor Ocampo’s invesigators at The Hague recently. These are very disturbing developments and anybody with more news should update KSB readers.
“Mr Hassan said Mr Rono and Mr Wekesa approached the Commission in January this year, backed by “credible institutions” and claimed their lives were in danger.
Mr Hassan said that on April 12 this year, the International Criminal Court indicated it was no longer interested in Mr Wekesa, but the Commission continued protecting him as he was still unsafe.
Mr Rono was dropped as witness on October 12, when he met the ICC investigators, and the Commission subsequently told him they could only keep him until January next year.”
…it just shows that ICC was the ONLY way to handle this case…..i dont even want to think about what a “local tribunal” would hv done…….definetly nothing
When Ruto allowed himself to be used by Moi (Y2K), he allowed himself to be smeared by dirt. His tribulations have begun and will haunt him forever.
At this rate, Ruto is in Big Brother Africa. The press is following him everywhere. Ruto has captured the imagination of Kenyans for all the wrong reasons. Where are the true mashujaa of Kenya doing honorable things without requesting for cameras.
There is something about this man called Ruto, otherwise everyone can’t be wrong! I pray the courts in Kenya will bring justice to all those who have been wronged, defrauded and most of all, the lost lives. We do know that justice will prevail some day.