Sometimes, an informed mind would begin to wonder as to who thinks for the No team in the Referendum campaigns. In an interesting piece in today’s East African Standard, a group of MPs allied to the No campaign are calling for the recall of Michael Renneberger, US Ambassador to Kenya, while others are claiming that the US President Barack Obama is funding and supporting the Yes campaign.
According to the East African Standard (15.07.2010), “”No” MPs, Peter Kiilu (Makueni), Julius Kones (Konoin) and Sammy Mwaita (Baringo-Central) addressed the Press at Parliament Buildings, Wednesday. “No” MPs have accused the Obama administration of using American tax money to fund the “Yes” referendum campaigns in Kenya.”
What should lead Kenyans to wonder is whether these MPs understand the US-Kenya politics and whether they also understand the imperialist role the US officially plays in influencing political events in our country. When the 2007 Presidential election was rigged in favour of Mwai Kibaki, the US government was the firs in the world to recognize the fake Kibaki regime despite the fact that the rigging was witnessed by millions of Kenyans through the National TV channels. Ambassador Renneberger himself said at Kenyatta International Conference Center that the US government “recognized Kibaki” after election rigging. Many Kenyans were shocked and those attacking him now did not say anything.
At that time, it was prudent for the US government to support Kibaki because the Bush Administration did not know Raila Odinga or what he stood for. The fear was that if Raila took over power, the US could not predict what he could and could not do in Kenya. They were more comfortable with Kibaki whom they knew and not Raila whom they didn’t know. By then, it was better to deal with the devil they knew other than the new angel they didn’t know. Kibaki had been Moi’s Vice president for ten years while he had been President for five years so the US government understood that Kibaki was not the kind of person who could threaten their vast economic, political, military and strategic interests in Kenya.
At the moment, the US is dealing with a completely different situation. Raila Odinga has, since the rigging of elections, convinced the US government that he is the guy who is fit to lead Kenya even though they never supported him in December 2007. Every Kenyan who is politically conscious knows that Education minister William Ruto cannot rule Kenya because he lacks a national appeal capable of according him national support. Matha Karua, who began by profiling herself as a Presidential candidate, has toned down her Presidential rhetoric because she has noticed that there is more to becoming President of Kenya. In fact, other aspirants have simply disappeared into thin air. It is no longer a question of making a declaration through a microphone at a public rally that you want to become President of Kenya.
For those in the know, the US government influenced the signing of the National Accord through Kofi Anan because they wanted peace in Kenya for a peaceful exploitation of Kenyan resources. Officially, it is in the interest of the US government that the Draft Constitution passes at the Referendum because if it doesn’t, Kenya will be politically unstable at a time when a new President must take over because President Mwai Kibaki is not coming back.
Ambassador Renneberger is not acting alone
Although President Obama has not openly supported the “Yes” side in the coming Referendum, it is all too clear from the machinations of the US Ambassador that the US government wants the Constitution to be enacted. Secondly, the US is interested in seeing Raila Odinga through as the next President of Kenya because of reasons of “continuity”. After the signing of the National Accord, Raila Odinga has convinced the US government that he will not threaten their interests in Kenya and this is the fundamental reason why the US is on his side.
By campaigning for the “Yes” team, the US is indirectly sending the message to Kenyans that Raila is their man come 2012. In any case, it is Raila’s Presidency that was stolen by Kibaki and given the popularity of Raila at this point in time and the sympathy he commands, it is in the interest of the US to work with him because he appears to be “the President in waiting”. How does this connect to the “No” team that is attacking the US government’s support of the “Yes” campaign?
The “No” team expects the US to be “neutral” in the campaign, an expectation that betrays the lack of understanding of US-Kenya politics. Lesson number one is that the US is never neutral especially in situations where its interests are at stake. This is the case with Kenya in the run up to the Referendum. Ambassador Michael Ranneberger is not acting alone by supporting the “Yes” camp under different camouflages and the call by “No” MPs for him to be recalled is a demonstration of ignorance on the part of these MPs vis a vis US imperialist role in Kenyan affairs.
What the No team could have done could have been to ignore Ambassador Renneberger because the No team have no control of his actions. By attacking him and calling for his recall, they are reminding the informed public that they do not understand the forces behind Renneberger and consequently they do not understand the role the “secret hand” of the United States plays in Kenyan political direction.
This ignorance is fatal because it proves that members in the No team cannot run the country because they do not understand the basic forces that determine the power balance in the nation. This is not to support American meddling in Kenyan politics and, from my view, the US government should leave Kenyans to decide their future. Come the next elections, the US government will support Raila Odinga using similar tactics. In supporting the “Yes” side, the US is also sending a message to Raila that he is their man in 2012 and that he ought to take note.
William Ruto, who is heading the No team, is in the business because he is seeking to build himself politically in readiness for the post Referendum situation. He knows they will lose the Referendum but after the dust settles, he expects to emerge as the force of the opposition. Ruto is playing the same game Raila has been playing all along with the difference being that this time around, Raila is playing his cards with the motivation that apart from him at this point in Kenyan history, there is no one who can take over Kenya’s leadership. After the Referendum, Ruto expects to emerge as the voice of the opposition but his tactics may cost him the credibility he needs to assume the leadership of the opposition because his team is busy distorting facts about the Constitution to gain political mileage.
From my vintage point, the Constitution will pass, Ruto will be dropped from the Cabinet and Raila will gain further political points to boost his 2012 Presidential campaigns. The big loser will be Ruto and the No team who are trying to isolate members of the Kalenjin through the Referendum. In the next ten years, it is highly unlikely that Kenya will have a Kikuyu or a Kalenjin President because of historical factors and this fact should have helped the Rutos to stop using the Referendum campaign as a prelude to try and vie for Presidency in 2012.
Attacks against US Ambassador Renneberger will fall on deaf ears because the US government has decided to stand on the side of history, not just for political expediency but to safeguard its interests in Kenya. While attacks on Renneberger could have some populist appeal, they have no political content from the point of view of imperialist manipulationist politics in Kenya. For this reason, the venom directed at Renneberger by the No team is a waste of time, energy and resources.
Okoth Osewe
About the Author
Well, its true that global politics are at play in Kenya. However, most Kenyan voters are not aware of this and the perceived interference by the US Ambassador could arouse nationalistic feelings. Its important to remember that voters make their decisions based on local issues rather than international affairs. A good case in point is the recent by election in Matuga Constituency. Despite the fact that Mwakwere is universally reviled in Kenya, the voters in Matuga voted for him on the grounds that he is a highly educated Digo fighting against “outsiders.”
So, the nationalistic rantings of the NO team should not be ignored and quite a number of Kenyans are likely to be offended by US interference in the referendum.
An opinion from a “NO” commentator. True or false?
“Abortion has been entrenched in various sections for example, using terms like women must have access to “Reproductive Health Care” in 43(1)(a) which is globally accepted, even in the UN to mean ABORTION!
Christians are against the inclusion of Kadhis Courts (Islamic Courts or Sharia Law) because it is an outright injustice to other religions. Kenya is a multi-religious society! Christians’ objections to the inclusion of Kadhi Courts were ignored by the government, the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission, the BOMAS gathering, the Committee of Experts and most recently the Parliamentary Select Committee. Christians are left with no choice but to vote against the new Constitution unless the Courts are removed.
The fact that the Kadhi Courts did not harm non-Muslims does not mean it was right for them to be included in the Constitution. It was wrong and discriminatory against the people of other faiths from the beginning. Kenyans’ patience since independence must not be taken for granted. It is time to correct all wrong things. Muslims should by now be an integral part of the Kenyan community not requiring special treatment or protection! The constitution must not divide the people along religious or other lines. Kenyans want one nation, one land, one law that caters for all irrespective of religious affiliation. This is the practice in stable democracies around the world. We should not let a new constitution to perpetuate past injustices.”
http://www.pottstownmercury.com/articles/2010/07/15/opinion/srv0000008817984.txt