Raila’s Support for Sifuna: A Calculated Signal, Not Just Party Democracy
Raila Odinga’s public endorsement of Edwin Sifuna’s fierce criticism of the ODM-UDA deal is no minor footnote in Kenya’s unfolding political drama. In defending Sifuna’s comments—where the Secretary-General declared the pact with President Ruto’s UDA “dead” due to ongoing state repression—Raila was not just standing for internal democracy. He was signalling that ODM’s partnership with UDA is under severe strain, if not already broken in practice.
This defence comes at a time when tensions within ODM have reached a boiling point. The arrest, abduction, and killings of Gen Z protesters—particularly the death of blogger and teacher Albert Ojwang in police custody—have placed immense pressure on Raila to justify why ODM is still tethered to Ruto’s administration. The grassroots have taken notice. The thunderous support for Sifuna in Kakamega was not mere fandom—it was a statement that the base is angry, mobilized, and ready to bolt if the party is seen to be compromising with a government accused of shedding the blood of young citizens.
As Kenya Stockholm incisively argues in its recent article, ODM’s dual positioning is no accident. It is a strategy meant to preserve leverage. The party expresses outrage to retain street credibility, while simultaneously occupying a privileged position near the levers of state power. But this equilibrium is becoming increasingly untenable. Raila’s vocal backing of Sifuna confirms the thesis: ODM is not playing a unifying role in the Ruto coalition—it is hedging.
The Broken Promises of the UDA-ODM Pact: Blood on the Deal
Let’s be clear—whatever agreement exists between UDA and ODM, its moral and political currency is rapidly collapsing. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), however opaque, was presumably predicated on a form of peaceful political coexistence, developmental cooperation, and mutual restraint. Yet on the ground, young protesters continue to be abducted, tortured, disappeared, or killed by state forces. No public compensation or acknowledgement has been extended to families of those slain during the Gen Z uprising, including the family of Albert Ojwang.
In this context, ODM’s alignment with Ruto looks less like a strategic alliance and more like complicity—at least in the eyes of its supporters. ODM appears powerless to restrain the very brutality that Sifuna decried on national television. The fact that Raila did not distance the party from Sifuna’s “deal is dead” declaration, but instead supported his right to speak, reveals that ODM’s top leadership is now recalibrating its stance.
The Kenya Stockholm article outlines this duality with surgical precision: ODM utilises public fury as a pressure valve to manage internal dissent and maintain its populist legitimacy, even as it continues to strengthen its proximity to power. But when blood is spilt and accountability is absent, even the most sophisticated ventriloquism collapses under the weight of reality. The public is watching, and the clock is ticking.
Ruto’s Nightmare Scenario: If Raila Walks, the Government Collapses
President Ruto may believe that he has clipped Raila’s wings by bringing ODM into the fold. He may assume that the deal—whether formal or informal—has neutralized the threat of mass mobilization from the opposition. But the very public rift within ODM, combined with Raila’s strategic silence on state brutality and recent tilt toward Sifuna’s populist critique, points to a more fragile alliance than State House may want to admit.
The greatest danger to Ruto is not just that the ODM base is restive—it is that Raila may choose to walk away from the deal altogether. If Raila were to declare the MoU unworkable due to Ruto’s repression and pivot toward Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, it would send seismic shocks through the regime. Gachagua, though a political maverick, has the backing of a substantial bloc of the Mt. Kenya electorate. A Raila-Gachagua alignment—however ideologically incoherent—would be a coalition of mutual grievance and raw political arithmetic. And in such a realignment, Ruto would find himself isolated, presiding over a fractured government, with an angry youth population, and a ticking economic time bomb.
Even with state machinery in hand, no amount of digital manipulation or electoral rigging can manufacture legitimacy in the face of such a rupture. The last time Raila was underestimated, the country burned. If he exits now and blames Ruto’s authoritarianism for the collapse, the 2027 election would be lost before campaigns begin.
The Ball Is in Ruto’s Court: Honour the MoU or Prepare for Political Ruin
President Ruto must now make a decisive choice. Either he honours the spirit of his MoU with ODM—by ending the abductions, compensating the families of the fallen Gen Z heroes, and curbing the brutality of his security forces—or he risks political annihilation. The ODM-UDA pact was never about ideology—it was about survival. Raila’s support offered Ruto national cover, urban calm, and an illusion of bipartisan legitimacy. But illusions, like masks, eventually slip.
If Ruto continues with the current trajectory—state terror, disregard for youth grievances, and opaque governance—then the deal is already dead. Sifuna merely said what Raila might be too careful to articulate yet. ODM’s dual positioning, as described in Kenya Stockholm, has reached a breaking point. The strategy to act as both insider and outsider can only work if the government remains defensible. And at the moment, it is not.
Raila is under siege. His base is demanding clarity. His party is fissuring. And his reputation as a moral voice is being tested by association. The longer Ruto delays genuine reform, the more likely it is that Raila will opt to jump ship—not necessarily because he wants to, but because he cannot afford to remain tethered to a sinking vessel.
Ruto Must React, and Fast
The political theatre unfolding in Kenya is not just about ODM’s internal politics or Sifuna’s rhetorical bravado. It is about the soul of the republic—and the fate of the current administration. Raila’s public defence of Sifuna was a calculated risk, a message to Ruto and the country that all is not well within the “handshake” framework that emerged post-election.
The warning signs are flashing red. Abductions continue. Justice is absent. The youth are restless. And ODM’s patience is waning. Ruto must decide: does he take ODM seriously as a coalition partner and honour the deal, or does he continue on a path that leads to rupture and collapse?
Either way, the balance of power is shifting. And the president’s next move will define not only the future of his administration but the stability of Kenya itself.
Okoth Osewe
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