Viewing cable 10NAIROBI171, Severe Coalition Government Tensions Surface
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000171
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DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: Severe Coalition Government Tensions Surface
REF: RANNEBERGER-CARSON TELCON FEBRUARY 15
CLASSIFIED BY: Mitch Benedict, Political Counselor, State, Political;
REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
¶1. (C) Summary. Severe tensions within the coalition government have been building in recent days and erupted on February 14 into what both sides are characterizing as a “crisis.” The revelation of major corruption within the Ministry of Education, headed by a minister allied to President Kibaki, sparked
retaliatory release of a long-delayed forensic audit of the maize scandal allegedly tied to the Prime Minister’s office as well as Minister of Agriculture Ruto. In an effort to protect himself, Odinga on February 13 announced the resignations of two officials in his office. Caught off guard, President Kibaki responded by suspending eight senior officials implicated in both scandals. Seeking to regain the upper hand, Odinga on February 14 announced he was suspending the Minister of Education and Minister of Agriculture. The President’s office immediately disputed Odinga’s authority to suspend the ministers, and announced that the two remain in place. Odinga is also seeking to reopen agreements on contentious issues with respect to the constitutional review process reached by the Parliamentary Select Committee a week ago. We are in close touch with both sides to urge them to resolve the current imbroglio. Odinga has formally requested Annan to intervene pursuant to the provisions of the National Accord which formed the coalition government. Annan told the Ambassador on February 15 that he will call Kibaki and Odinga. While the country remains calm, there is the potential for some violence given the willingness of politicians to resort to such tactics and continued high ethnic tensions. We are closely monitoring the situation. We issued a statement on February 15 urging the coalition partners to resolve their differences. We are reaching out to all the key actors to urge calm and appropriate statements calling on the two leaders to work out their differences. Depending on how matters develop in the coming days, additional high-level USG intervention may be needed. The coalition crisis, corruption, and constitutional review will be the focus of Parliament, when it reconvenes February.
¶23. End summary.
Coalition Tensions and “Crisis”
¶2. (C) What appeared to be progress on both the constitutional review process and corruption issues has been transformed into public surfacing of severe tensions within the coalition government. Both sides are, unhelpfully, characterizing this as a “crisis.” Though we have publicly avoided doing so, there is a growing perception among Kenyans that the tensions do, or will soon, amount to a serious crisis.
¶3. (C) The tensions are related to the corruption issue and the constitutional review process. There has been growing pressure on the coalition government to take action on the education and maize scandals. The Ambassador’s January 26 speech focused on the need to accelerate implementation of the reform agenda. The speech resulted in revived public discussion on corruption issues (particularly the maize and education scandals). Based on credible reports from multiple sources, it seems clear that the maize scandal touches the families of both President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga, and key members of their teams (though Odinga’s side is likely more culpable on the maize scandal; Minister of Agriculture Ruto has been openly hostile toward Odinga and is working closely with the Kibaki side, so Kibaki has an interest in protecting Ruto). The corruption within the Ministry of Education likely reaches very senior levels on Kibaki’s side.
¶4. (C) Faced with growing pressure, Kibaki and Odinga saw joint interest in taking limited action. Thus on February 13, the government announced that a number of senior officials were being suspended for three months while investigations take place into the maize and education scandals. The officials suspended include: Ministry of Agriculture Permanent Secretary Romano Kiome, Ministry of Special Programs Permanent Secretary Ali Mohamed, Ministry of Education Permanent Secretary Karega Mutahi, Office of the Prime Minister Permanent Secretary Mohammed Isahakia, Office of the Prime Minister Administrative Secretary Caroli Omondi, National Cereals and Produce Board Managing Director Gideon Misoi, National Cereals and Produce Board Sales and Marketing Manager Boit, and National Cereals and Produce Board General Manager Langat.
¶5. (C) Although a product of consultations between Kibaki and Odinga, the announcement of suspensions was issued by the presidency. On February 14 Odinga announced separately that he was suspending Minister of Education Ongeri and Minister of Agriculture Ruto for 3 months while investigations take place. Odinga presumably did this because he wanted to be seen directly as acting against corruption, but there were undoubtedly other considerations as well (see below). Later on February 14, President Kibaki issued a statement countermanding Odinga’s suspension of the two ministers, and stated that there had been no consultation between him and Odinga regarding such a step (Odinga claimed there were consultations). Additionally, Kibaki stated that the Prime Minister does not have the legal or constitutional authority to suspend a minister.
¶6. (C) On February 15 Odinga issued a statement maintaining that he has the authority to remove the ministers pursuant to the constitution and to the National Accord and Reconciliation Act. (The legal authorities are not completely clear. While Kibaki has the constitutional power to appoint ministers, the National Accord states that ministerial appoints and removals shall be made pursuant to consultation between the coalition partners.)
¶7. (C) Odinga’s statement concluded by officially declaring a “dispute” between the coalition partners and seeking the “immediate intervention of the African Union, in particular the Office of the Eminent African Personalities chaired by Kofi Annan, to convene a meeting to discuss the current crisis with a view to resolving it.”
Context of Odinga’s and Kibaki’s Actions
¶8. (C) It is important to understand the context in which Odinga’s actions are taking place. On February 12 we learned that Odinga had chaired a meeting with close advisers with a view toward reopening key provisions of the agreements on contentious issues in the constitutional review process reached by the Parliamentary Select Committee in Naivasha the previous week. When the Ambassador called Odinga, he admitted this was the case. He stated that the Parliamentary Select Committee had exceeded its mandate. How could Odinga walk away from the agreement when Odinga’s top people are in the PSC and participated in the meetings under instructions from Odinga, the Ambassador asked? Odinga had no response to this, but nevertheless insisted that key provisions must be reopened. Odinga’s decision to reopen key issues came just days before the PSC and Committee of Experts were scheduled to review the results of the Navaisha meetings and move the constitutional review process forward. Odinga’s decision to reopen key issues was confirmed today when his ODM party submitted a ten-page memorandum to the COE reopening key issues.
¶9. (C) We have credible reports that members of Odinga’s family, presumably with his knowledge and/or involvement, were involved in the maize scandal. Thus, at the time he made his dramatic February 14 statements, Odinga was facing serious pressures on both the corruption and constitutional review issues. It seems highly possible that Odinga made the announcement regarding Ongeri and Ruto knowing that it would cause a huge political and constitutional flap, and thus divert focus on both the corruption and constitutional review issues. Alternatively, Odinga may have miscalculated that he could “roll” Kibaki to go along with his actions because Kibaki would not want to be seen as supporting ministers tainted by corruption.
¶10. (C) Kibaki, like Odinga, also wants to be seen as spearheading anti-corruption actions, so one-upsmanship is at play. Members of Kibaki’s family may be involved in these or other corruption scandals. Kibaki may have calculated that sacrificing senior-level personnel short of ministers would be enough to placate the public. At the same time, Kibaki is likely be urged by Uhuru Kenyatta not to take action against Ruto, since the two are working closely together, possibly with a view toward the 2012 presidential elections.
U.S. Actions
¶11. (C) The Ambassador spoke with Presidential Permanent Secretary Muthaura and Prime Minister Odinga on February 14. Muthaura insisted that, while the President and Prime Minister had discussed the possibility of ministerial shake-ups on several occasions, there was no agreement to suspend Ongeri and Ruto. Odinga’s action to do so has precipitated a constitutional crisis, Muthaura said. Odinga told the Ambassador that he consulted Kibaki on the suspensions, but he quickly added that whether or not Kibaki had agreed makes no difference, since Odinga has the authority to suspend the ministers. “I have the constitutional authority to coordinate and supervise the ministers,” Odinga stated. “That authority amounts to nothing if I do not have the authority to suspend ministers.” The Ambassador urged the Prime Minister to call the President with a view toward resolving the impasse and avoiding a crisis. Odinga was non-committal, and then late on February 14 he departed for a week-long visit to Thailand and Japan. (As one wag put it: having set the house on fire, Odinga left the country.)
¶12. (C) The Ambassador spoke with Kofi Annan on February 15. Annan said he is closely following the situation and will likely call Kibaki and Odinga on February 16, after they have both had a chance to calm down. He will urge them to resolve the controversy regarding the suspension of the ministers, and to keep the constitutional review process on track. (Annan remains very involved on Kenya and plans to hold a major public forum on the National Accord in Nairobi in late March.)
¶13. (C) In the volatile atmosphere of Kenyan politics and continued serious ethnic tensions, resort to violence by some or all of the actors is a real possibility. Ruto certainly sees that as an option. Odinga knows that he does not have the votes in Parliament to support his actions (given that Ruto can control at least 12 or so MPs), and therefore may be tempted to see fomenting public unrest as his only option.
¶14. (C) On February 15, we issued a statement urging the coalition partners to work together in the interest of the nation (see full text below). We are also urging calm and reaching out to key actors, including civil society, the private sector, religious groups, the media, youth groups, and politicians. A number of these actors have indicated they will key off of our statement.
¶15. (C) We are monitoring the situation closely. Depending on how matters evolve – and the results of Annan’s interventions – additional high-level USG engagement with Kibaki and Odinga may be necessary in the coming days.
¶16. (U) Begin text of statement.
U.S. Government Statement on Coalition Government Actions
Nairobi, 15 February 2010 – The U.S. Government welcomes the decision to order certain officials to step aside while investigations into the maize and education scandals proceed. This constitutes an essential first step needed to address corruption scandals. The Kenyan people and the international community are waiting to see whether the government’s actions taken so far signal a new decision to take bold actions to fight corruption at all levels with respect to these cases and the other major corruption scandals.
Thorough, transparent, and independent investigations should be carried out expeditiously, and vigorous prosecutions should take place as warranted by the evidence. Government officials at all levels must be held accountable for their actions. We urge the leaders of the coalition government to work together to ensure that all appropriate steps are taken so that justice is served and the rule of law is respected.
The signing of the National Accord and formation of the coalition government was a watershed which ended the worst crisis in Kenya’s history. The coalition leaders, therefore, have a responsibility to act in a unified way to move forward the historic reform agenda. Only a unified coalition government approach, in the spirit of the National Accord, will be credible. Only a unified approach by the coalition leadership will signal true determination to work together to fight corruption.
The coalition partners must concurrently work together in a cooperative spirit to successfully complete the constitutional review process. The work of the Committee of Experts and the Parliamentary Select Committee constitutes major progress. We urge the coalition partners to maintain momentum in the constitutional review process, and hold a timely referendum which will unify the nation.
Working together to tackle corruption, to implement other key reforms such as police reform, and to see the constitutional review process to a successful conclusion are, taken together, vital to ensure the future democratic stability and prosperity for all Kenyans.
We stand behind the message of the Kenyan people: “the resilience of the Kenyan people must not be taken for granted any longer. Tackle grand corruption and give Wananchi a new constitution.”
End text.
RANNEBERGER
About the Author
Violence in Rift Valley
In cables to Washington, US Ambassador Michael Ranneberger following the post-election said of Kibaki: “He should not blame Odinga for this, saying there are forces beyond his control. He said Mr Ruto one of the members of ODM is largely responsible for the continuing violence in Rift Valley.”
The brewing rebellion since Ruto and fellow ODM rebels elbowed out some members of the President’s think-tank has reportedly placed the President in a quandary, made worse by revelations the relationship between the suspended minister and the Head of State had blossomed to the extent the MP now gets daily intelligence briefs.
Interestingly Internal Security Minister George Saitoti and Assistant Minister Orwa Ojode are said to be out of the loop about the turn of events in the ministry and the party he chairs. The disgruntlement in PNU comes at a time the President and the ODM renegades are confident they have their common adversary, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, in a corner.
time the President and the ODM renegades are confident they have their common adversary, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, in a corner.
Imminent revolt
Sources, whose names we cannot reveal because of their positions in Government, say an imminent revolt in the President’s party has forced him to review his engagement with the ODM renegade MPs, who also include Agriculture Minister Sally Kosgei, Belgut MP Charles Keter, and Tourism Minister Najib Balala, among others.
In addition to the ODM rebels, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta of Kanu has teamed up with Ruto in one of he fiercest push to ‘deflate’ Raila, who multiple opinion surveys predict stands a better chance of winning presidential poll, due next year, despite falling support.
Nairobi Metropolitan Development Minister Njeru Githae denies there is discomfort in the party precipitated by the arrival of Ruto and company.
“This is a working relationship of like-minded MPs who have the welfare of this country at heart. In politics, the more the merrier,” Githae says. He said the group is not joining PNU to take over its leadership.
“We need to bring the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin together even if they support different presidential aspirants,” he points out. The Kikuyu and Kalenjin killed each other in the 2008 post-election violence resulting in the displacement of about 650,000 people, thousands of who still live in IDP camps. The mayhem claimed 1,133 lives.
However, relations between the two communities began thawing during the eviction of Mau Forest Complex illegal settlers. Githae says the bond strengthened further when the International Criminal Court named six chief suspects, among them, Ruto and Uhuru.
The President, sources say, was forced to cancel his second trip in two to Eldoret at the invitation of Ruto to open the agricultural show on Thursday.
When The Standard On Sunday sought details of why Kibaki delegated Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka to represent him, it was informed the President stayed behind to chair an urgent national security meeting.
Whatever the case, members of the President’s party have openly disagreed with him over his new ties with ODM MPs at the expense of his erstwhile advisors.
Own machinery
While denying he or Prof Saitoti was aware of the intelligence reports, Mr Ojode says: “Reports about Ruto getting intelligence briefs are mere allegations. It cannot happen even if he were reappointed minister,” says the assistant minister. He, however, says in the current political atmosphere anything is possible.
“You can never know what goes on behind my back. Ruto could be having his own machinery of gathering intelligence,” he observes.
Ojode would not comment on why the PM was the subject of intelligence gathering.
Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba conceded when asked if his party, ODM, was aware Eldoret MP receives daily briefs on the Prime Minister.
“Prof Saitoti does not know what is going on in his own docket. Intelligence reports bypass him without his clearance,” says Namwamba.
Assistant Minister for Public Works, Mwangi Kiunjuri, an ally of the President, admits there are leadership battles in the party. He, however, says the pent-up anger in PNU has nothing to do with the perceived raid of the President’s think-tank by the ODM MPs.
“Ruto has given PNU a fresh breath of life. The party was short of strategy before Ruto arrived. What we are seeing is rejuvenation of the party by someone who has reenergised our thinking,” Kiunjuri says.
Assistant Minister for Higher Education, Kilemi Mwiria, who in a recent early morning talk show on Standard Group’s Radio Maisha FM, first made the disquiet in the party public warned the President against embracing the ODM rebels.
Dr Mwiria warned the President risked undoing his legacy by getting advice from Ruto and Uhuru. It is not enough to welcome them with open arms; they are self-seekers, Kilemi warned.
It is the same line of argument Saitoti has used to protest the unrestricted access and privileges the rebels have from the President.
The apprehension in PNU is based on fears the unrestricted access to national intelligence by their new allies could one day be used against them. According to Namwamba, the fears in PNU are premised on the former minister’s past, especially after deserting former President Moi, his colleagues in YK’92, United Democratic Movement (which he plans to reclaim) and ODM.
Says Namwamba, “It is clear that there is a mole in the intelligence machinery. It is The Watergate style of doing things points to desperation. This obsession with the PM is dangerous for this country,” the MP, who the chairs of Committee on Legal Affairs, says.
Wikileaks RUTO CAN DUMP UHURU-WIKILEAKS .RUTO CAN DUMP UHURU-WIKILEAKS .
REPORTER . CLOSE ALLIES? William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta enjoy a joke in 2010
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WILLIAM Ruto could dump Uhuru Kenyatta, according to the latest Wikileaks cable quoting Sally Kosgei.The cable on June 2, 2009 says that ambassador Michael Ranneberger dined on May 12 at his Muthaiga residence with the then Higher Education minister, US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Johnnie Carson and National Security Council director for Africa Michelle Gavin. “She expects that Ruto will abandon Uhuru if he stumbles or is no longer useful,” said Ranneberger in the cable.
She confirmed that Ruto, Uhuru and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka were working on an alliance primarily as a reaction to the Waki Commission. “Ruto, in Kosgei’s view, is working with Uhuru to block key reforms and scuttle the Waki Commission’s call for a local tribunal to investigate post-election violence,” said the cable which noted that “Both Ruto and Kenyatta are believed to be on the Waki Commission’s sealed list of 10 architects of post-election violence”. “Kosgei (an ethnic Kalenjin) expressed doubt that Kikuyu voter in Central and Kalenjin voters in Rift Valley will be willing to set aside the violence suffered at each others hands to form a coalition in 2012,” the cable states.
In 2009, Kosgei had not yet switched to join the rebel ODM group around William Ruto but she was still privately critical of party leader Prime Minister Raila Odinga. “Kosgei believes that Odinga truly wants to achieve the reform agenda but does not have the organisational discipline to do so. Raila had not office structure and no discipline in his life or schedule,” the cable states.
She “quote former Salim Lone as observing that Odinga has made it this far in politics by the force of his personality without having to demonstrate managerial acumen”. “Odinga is unwilling to sack corrupt deputies and is overly focused on protocol issues and ODM inclusion in appointment decisions such that it distracts his attention from the broader reform agenda,” the cable states. “Though Kosgei and her ministers have access to Odinga, he often agrees to meet late at night when he is tired and unfocused”.
However Kosgei concluded that “Odinga, despite his flaws, remains the strongest candidate in a crowded field thanks to strong opposition credentials and an accessible personality”.
She was dismissive of other candidates. “Uhuru is hindered by laziness and a very hands off approach to running the Ministry of Finance” and had also been damaged by the fiasco of financial inaccuracies in the 2009 budget. “Minister of Internal Security George Saitoti has been appointed to every position he has held and lacks the skills to fight effectively for the Presidency.” “Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi lacks the energy and money to seriously challenge Ruto,” she said. “On the PNU side Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is a diminishing asset who frets that he will be overshadowed by Mutula Kilonzo,” the cable states.
Kosgei told the Americans that Kibaki and Raila “have no difficulty reaching agreement on issues but for different reasons are each incapable of advancing reforms. She noted from her own experience in Cabinet meetings that two principals are in a mutual admiration club (in Cabinet they always agree).” “Kosgei noted that Kibaki agrees to reforms in principle but is beholden to the corrupt interests of his inner circle.”
She agreed with the Americans that Civil Service boss “Francis Muthaura has accumulated inordinate control over government functions”.She defended Martha Karua who had just resigned as Justice minister. “Karua is a good woman, and an ally for reform, but she fell into the trap of believing that Kibaki actually seeks to reform the judicial sector,” the cable states. “Karua’s replacement as Justice Minister, Mutula Kilonzo, used to to be the lawyer to former President Moi. Kilonzo is a windbag and not strong enough to take on the vested interests of the current regime, Kosgei observed, but she expressed the hope that he would undertake at least minimal reforms of the judiciary.”
In response to a question from Carson about extra-judicial killings, “Kosgei responded by noting that all security organs remain under the control of Kibaki’s PNU party. Because PNU leaders believe that Police Commissioner Ali did them a favour during the past election by cordoning ODM strongholds, Kosgei expects that PNU will block any substantial police reforms and will retain close control of the police, GSU (paramilitary), and military in advance of the 2012 elections”. “In this context, Ali is permitted to utilize extrajudicial killings to control organised gangs such as the Mungiki, which threaten to disrupt Kikuyu politics by operating in the heart of Central Province”, the cable quotes her as saying. “The police freelance in extorting money from the gangs and execute legitimate critics such as the Oscar Foundation principals”, the cable states.
She was also critical of NSIS director Gen Michael Gichangi as “a man who has no energy” and “is more interested in collecting information on ODM leaders than issues of national importance”.
The conclusion of the dinner was that “sustained broad public pressure will be required to move leaders beyond their marrow political interests to serving the interests of the country”.
here: National Wikileaks RUTO EXPLAINS KIAMBAA-WIKILEAKS Skip to content.RUTO EXPLAINS KIAMBAA-WIKILEAKS .
Monday, 07 March 2011 00:01 BY STAR REPORTER . TRAGEDY: A man wipes his face at the burned Kiambaa KAG church near Eldoret.
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FORMER Higher Education minister William Ruto told the American government that the Kiambaa church was the result of an accidental fire, according to the latest Wikileaks cable to be released.
Ruto was meeting ambassador William Ranneberger, Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Johnnie Carson and National Security Council director Michelle Gavin on May 12, 2009, almost 17 months later.
The Waki Commission report stated in 2009 that “the incident which captured the attention of both Kenyans and the world was the deliberate burning alive of mostly Kikuyu women and children huddled together in a church in Kiambaa on 1 January 2008. They had sought refuge in the church following a 30 December attack on their village of Kimuri, bordering Kiambaa. According to reports, including witness testimony, mattresses and blankets were set ablaze with petrol and thrown into the building while mothers and babies who were trying to flee the inferno were pushed back into the church. Kikuyu men attempting to defend their church and loved ones were hacked to death with machetes, shot with arrows, or pursued and killed. The death toll for this horrific incident was 17 burned alive in the church, 11 dying in or on the way to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital, and 54 others injured who were treated and discharged.” “Ruto expressed frustration with the media, which he felt had blamed members of his Kalenjin group for locking and burning down a church full of asylum seekers in Eldoret during last yeatr’s election violence,” states the cable. “Ruto emphasised that his people had done no such thing. According to Ruto, the cause of the incident was an accidental kitchen fire during preparations for lunch”.
Gavin then reminded Ruto that a Special Tribunal to investigate post-election violence would allow the truth to “come out and be clarified”. Ruto however appeared ambivalent about the tribunal despite Ranneberger telling “Ruto that his leadership towards a consensus on setting up a tribunal inside Kenya is critical”. “The Waki report (which proposed the local tribunal) was “rubbish” and “unfairly incriminating”, he said. Ruto explained that he voted (in Parliament) in favour of the Special Tribunal for the sake of the country but he was not sure whether the ICC or a local tribunal was the way to go,” the cable states.
In December, Ruto became one of the six Kenyan leaders that International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo says he wants to prosecute for crimes against humanity during the post-election violence. “Both Senior Director Gavin and Ambassador Ranneberger discouraged Kenya from going to the ICC, which would simply indicate to the world that Kenya cannot handle its own problems”, the cable states.
Two days after the meeting on May 14, ODM leaders including Prime Minister Raila Odinga and the then Agriculture minister William Ruto boycotted the funeral of the Kiambaa victims which was billed as a reconciliation gesture between the communities of the Rift Valley. The funeral was attended by the President Kibaki and other PNU officials. Fourteen of those buried in the church compound died in the fire while another 22 bodies were collected around the area and were not identified or claimed.
The ODM boycotted the burial because of plans by the government to build a memorial at the church and the decision to bury victims of the violence who did not die at the Kiambaa church. The ODM felt that attending the burial might endorse claims that they were the aggressors and PNU the victims.
Gavin and Carson told Ruto that “President Obama was deeply concerned by the political gridlock in Kenya.” “Ruto said he appreciated US concerns about Kenya’s future. He believed however that responsibility for Kenya’s stability belonged first and foremost to the country itself”.
He said the reform process was well underway and that “the safest way to go on both police and judicial reform was through a new constitution”.
He said “Kenya won’t return to violence because it is a “lot wiser”. The power sharing issues currently at stake will not bring about resurgence of violence”. “The real problem between now and 2012was how to deal with the youth,” said Ruto. “Citing the rise of the Mungiki gang, Ruto explained that it was initially an ethnically based organisation, not it is simply about the marginalised poor lashing out at those with economic means”.
Ranneberger’s concluding comment in the cable was was “Ruto was unable to offer significant steps on reform that could be accomplished within the next three months. What he did expose again was his extreme sensitivity to the establishment of any kind of tribunal and his willingness to protect his community regardless of the cost to the country as a whole. We do not expect Ruto to serve as a positive agent of change in the coming months”.
Watch this babarianism Ruto killing Kikuyus & GSU (Populary known as policedogs)Maiming Youth>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVZgZLBokos&NR=1