The Crossroads of Continuity: ODM’s Moment of Reckoning
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), long defined by the charisma and defiance of Raila Amolo Odinga, stands at a historic crossroads. Raila’s death has not only created a symbolic void within the party but has also forced ODM to re-evaluate its ideological posture and political calculus in a transformed Kenya. For over two decades, ODM has been the epicentre of opposition politics—a moral voice of dissent and reform. Yet, in the aftermath of Raila’s departure and the recalibration of state power under President William Samoei Ruto, the winds of political necessity now blow toward pragmatic collaboration rather than idealistic rebellion.
ODM faces two mutually exclusive futures: remain in government and influence the national agenda from within, or retreat to the cold, uncertain wilderness of perpetual opposition without a unifying figurehead. The first path offers continuity, leverage, and survival. The second promises only nostalgia and irrelevance.
The Vacuum and the Vortex: No Raila, No Opposition Anchor
Raila Odinga was not just a party leader; he was the gravitational centre of Kenya’s political cosmos—a lodestar who balanced ideology with personal mystique. His absence leaves ODM exposed to centrifugal forces that could easily tear it apart. While youthful figures like Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna have attempted to project defiance and revolutionary zeal, they lack Raila’s historic weight, moral authority, and capacity to unify ethnic blocs into a coherent national force.
The current split narrative within ODM—between Sifuna’s rebellious faction and the loyalists led by Opiyo Wandayi, Gladys Wanga, John Mbadi, and Ali Hassan Joho—is not a genuine schism of ideology but a contest of timing and tactics. ODM’s senior echelon understands a fundamental truth of Kenyan politics: without Raila, there is no automatic path back to power through opposition.
President Ruto’s government, despite internal fractures, remains the only viable centre of political gravity. To oppose it without a unifying figure would be tantamount to political suicide. The Kikuyu bloc, though momentarily fractured between Ruto loyalists and Gachagua’s Mount Kenya conservatives, could easily reunite and reclaim the political high ground if ODM retreats. If ODM abandons the government now, the Mount Kenya elite would simply negotiate a rapprochement between Ruto and Gachagua—restoring their vice-presidential alliance and pushing Nyanza back into marginalization. For ODM, therefore, staying in government is not submission; it is survival.
The Pragmatism of Power: Where Ruto’s Need Meets ODM’s Necessity
President Ruto, ever the political tactician, has already recognized ODM’s indispensable role in securing his second term. The broad-based government he now champions is not a slogan—it is a strategic realignment. Ruto knows that his 2027 path to victory cannot rely solely on the volatile Rift Valley–Mount Kenya axis, especially after fractures with Gachagua and the growing discontent among Central Kenya elites. He needs an anchor in the west—the Luo-Nyanza and Western Kenya vote blocs—to guarantee electoral stability.
This explains the extraordinary state burial accorded to Raila Odinga, which was not merely a gesture of respect but a calculated political overture. By orchestrating a burial “per excellence,” Ruto was not burying an opponent; he was resurrecting an alliance. The symbolism was unmistakable: his public embrace of the Odinga family and his deference to Nyanza elders were designed to broadcast permanence—an implicit promise that the Ruto–ODM cooperation would endure beyond mourning.
ODM stalwarts understand this signal. The message from Ruto’s speech at the funeral was clear: he will not allow ODM to be hijacked by anti-government elements seeking to destabilize the ruling coalition. His tone—half warning, half invitation—was that of a man willing to protect the alliance by any means necessary.
For ODM, this is an opportunity cloaked in necessity. By remaining in government, the party secures both developmental dividends for its constituencies and strategic protection for its political machinery. Already, Nyanza has witnessed an unprecedented wave of infrastructural and administrative attention—roads, markets, fisheries, and energy programs that have long eluded the region during its years in opposition. The Luo electorate, pragmatic by experience, will not wish to forfeit this newfound power merely for the empty romance of resistance.
The Politics of Permanence: Why ODM Will Stay Put
ODM’s internal pragmatists—led by Oburu Odinga (the new Party Leader), Wandayi, Wanga, Joho, and Mbadi—have publicly affirmed that Raila left the party inside the broad-based government, and that is where it will remain. Their argument is grounded in cold arithmetic: the opposition bench offers visibility but not viability. Without control of state resources, patronage networks, or institutional access, ODM risks atrophy. In contrast, remaining in government ensures continuity, influence, and strategic protection against political extinction.
President Ruto, for his part, is politically desperate yet strategically aware. To win 2027, he requires ODM’s credibility among reformist voters, its organizational infrastructure across the west, and its emotional connection to the Odinga legacy. ODM thus becomes a bridge between Ruto’s survival and Raila’s memory—a fusion of necessity and nostalgia.
Critics like Sifuna and Babu Owino may denounce this posture as betrayal, but their rebellion lacks mass traction. Sifuna’s alliance with Kalonzo Musyoka’s United Opposition is a tactical flirtation rather than a viable front. The broader ODM fraternity perceives it as opportunism—a short-term bid for relevance rather than a coherent strategy. Oburu Odinga’s declaration that he “does not want to see Sifuna in the party” was a signal from the Odinga household: loyalty to Raila’s political legacy means preserving ODM’s seat at the governing table, not squandering it for hollow opposition theatrics.
Furthermore, the psychological landscape of Nyanza has shifted. The community, after decades of exclusion, has tasted the fruits of inclusion. The opening of state offices, cabinet appointments, and infrastructural allocations under Ruto’s watch have demystified the myth that power resides elsewhere. To return to the opposition would be to invite political amnesia and economic regression. The Luo people—long conditioned to associate governance with alienation—now sense tangible benefits of engagement. They will not easily surrender that progress at the altar of nostalgia.
The New Realism of the Orange
The ODM of the post-Raila era must evolve from a movement of resistance into a party of negotiation. The moral economy of defiance that once animated its rallies must give way to the political economy of inclusion. In this new calculus, remaining in government is not ideological betrayal but strategic adaptation.
If ODM were to exit government, the political pendulum would swing swiftly back to Central Kenya, reuniting Ruto and Gachagua in a renewed axis of convenience. The Luo bloc would once again be isolated, its hard-won development gains erased by the unforgiving logic of Kenyan succession politics.
Ruto’s current desperation for legitimacy makes ODM indispensable; ODM’s search for continuity makes Ruto unavoidable. Their marriage may be born of necessity, but it is sustained by shared survival instincts.
In the end, ODM’s future will not be decided by the noise of rebellion but by the clarity of realism. The Orange, once the colour of protest, now represents the hue of pragmatism—an acknowledgment that in Kenyan politics, power is not seized from the periphery; it is preserved at the canter.
ODM will remain in government not because it has surrendered, but because it has finally understood that longevity in politics depends not on shouting from the margins, but on whispering at the core of power.
Okoth Osewe
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