Kenya Stockholm Blog

In the video under review titled “No Raila no Nasa” published on 4^th February 2017, Mutahi Ngunyi and his six political kids takes a vantage position and pontificates wildly about Kenya’s political future. What I wish to challenge in this video are certain characterizations and conclusions which are either misleading or untrue.

The conclusions in question are as follows:

The Orengo Committee that was established by Nasa leaders to appoint Nasa’s Presidential candidate is branded and dismissed as a Raila project constructed to make Raila Nasa’s Presidential candidate.

Parties that constitute Nasa are different political parties and the Orengo Committee is composed of representatives from Nasa’s constituent parties. The Committee was itself set up by Nasa leaders, and not Raila Odinga. Its official mandate is to appoint Nasa’s Presidential candidate. Given that the various political parties that constitute Nasa do not have a common platform such as a Delegate’s Conference, the most democratic method of arriving at a Presidential candidate is through a Committee whose members are drawn from the constituent parties.

What Ngunyi is suggesting is that the Committee belongs to Raila Odinga, whom, he posits, sets its agenda, manipulates its members and decides its outcome. This is a malicious suggestion intended to malign Raila Odinga’s name. To suggest that the Committee is a fraud is to try and accomplish Ngunyi’s fundamental agenda of besmirching and character assassinating Raila, a mission that forms part of Ngunyi’s assignment by his Mount Kenya mafia sponsors. Ad Hoc Committees are formed from time to time to address issues as may be necessary. The IEBC was sent home by a Committee comprising Cord and Jubilee members. Ngunyi never dubbed it a Raila Committee. The Orengo Committee is not different so Ngunyi should stop suggesting that there is some Raila magic in the Committee.

Mutahi seeks to take credit ahead of the Orengo Committee for announcing that Raila Odinga will be Nasa’s Presidential candidate with Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate.

Even the most politically unconscious Kenyan who has been following political events in Kenya knows that the question of Nasa’s Presidential candidate is more of a rhetorical question than a hard nut to crack. The enthusiasm with which Ngunyi announces that Raila is Nasa’s Presidential candidates might mislead the viewer into thinking that it is Ngunyi and his kids who originated the idea that Raila is Nasa’s candidate. In retrospect, Ngunyi risks being charged with stealing Martin Ngatia’s hypothesis that Nasa will only succeed if Raila Odinga is its Presidential candidate. Ngatia made this statement more than a month ago. The difference between Ngatia and Ngunyi is that Ngatia motivated his thesis while Ngunyi simply made a statement. Why is Ngunyi stealing other people’s ideas then authoritatively claiming credit? The perception that Raila Odinga will be Nasa’s Presidential candidate is on everyone’s lips and Ngunyi does not score any points by converting it into a special announcement in a video on Youtube.

If Kalonzo does not become Raila’s running mate, he will bolt out of Nasa, run for President under Wiper to deny Nasa the Kamba vote after which Kalonzo will be appointed Prime Minster under Jubilee.

This is the wildest claim made in the video under review. Let us cast Kalonzo and Mudavadi under the microscope. Despite his watermelon, mutu wa katikati and traitor profile, Kalonzo has been more consistent in the opposition during the last 4 years than Mudavadi who has been away before he surfaced yesterday with Nasa. Kalonzo consumed tear gas which sent IEBC home. Until the Nasa idea was cast into Cord, Kalonzo was Raila Odinga’s automatic running mate in Cord. In terms of votes, the 2013 election gives Mudavadi 450,000 votes while Kalonzo could command over a million votes if he sticks with Nasa.

Under the circumstances, why should Kalonzo fail to make it as Raila’s running mate? True to character, Mutahi gives no motivation because his brief is to entice Kalonzo with bogus analysis so that Kalonzo can bolt from Nasa. After Jubilee short-changed the Kalenjin, Kalonzo knows that the Kamba will never vote for Jubilee and, the fore-going analysis notwithstanding, Kalonzo will be alone if he bolts from Nasa. In fact, Kalonzo will be replaced with Jonstone Muthama the moment he bolts from Nasa and he know this.

Another trick Ngunyi employs to try and drive a wage within Nasa is to elevate Mudavadi in order to undermine Wetangula. Wetangula has been more consistent in the opposition for the last four years than Mudavadi. In fact, what Mudavadi has so far brought on the table is the name Nasa and although he came late into the opposition bandwagon, Mudavadi appears to have been accommodated within the new Nasa group because it is believed that from his experience with Jubilee thieves, he will not be going back there regardless of the outcomes in Nasa. In short, Kalonzo’s options in bolting from Nasa are narrow.

If Raila does not become Nasa candidate, he will boycott elections because he has prepared his supporters psychologically for election boycott.

Last year, Raila made it clear that he would boycott elections if Isaack Hassan remained the IEBC Chairman and if the Commission is not sent home. The situation was so serious that the Cord leadership mobilized supporters to the streets in anti-IEBC demos where the opposition was tear-gassed, Kenyans executed by Jubilee police while numerous Cord supporters were injured. The struggle paid off because Isaack Hassan was eventually kicked out of IEBC while the whole Commission was sent home.

With the success of this struggle, Raila Odinga rested his case of boycotting elections. Ngunyi is now suggesting that an anti-Hassan statement that was made by Raila when Hassan was in charge of IEBC is still valid after the whole Commission was sent home. The fact that Ngunyi is even using the election boycott statement as an argument to support a bogus hypothesis under a new Nasa dispensation exposes the defective nature of Ngunyi’s pontifications. Ngunyi should learn how to avoid using statements which have been invalidated by political events. Kenya is no longer in the era of the Hassan-controlled IEBC. This era has been overtaken by the Nasa debate and the focus now is on Voter’s register, not election boycott. Ndugu Ngunyi should therefore wake up and smell the coffee.

Raila can be outfoxed by Kalonzo and Mudavadi with Kalonzo as the Nasa candidate, Raila boycotts election to save face.

The Constituent parties in Nasa are in this amorphous formation voluntarily. What brought Nasa leaders together was the understanding that no Opposition leader will be able to win the Presidential election alone. The epic struggle Ngunyi is suggesting that might erupt between Raila, Kalonzo and Mudavadi, ending with both Kalonzo and Mudavadi outfoxing Raila is just another wild imagination in the fertile mind of Mutahi Ngunyi. Surely, if Mudavadi and Kalonzo decide to engage in a war with Raila, what will Moses Wetangula, Johnstone Muthama, Hassan Joho and Isaack Ruto be doing? Ngunyi does not tell his viewers because according to his mind-set, Nasa is Raila, Kalonzo and Mudavadi. As had been motivated in another video, Raila will not boycott elections so please, cook a better hypothesis to replace the Raila-Kalonzo-Mudavadi fight. You can do better!

Okoth Osewe