When President Mwai Kibaki was officially opening the Kisumu International Airport yesterday, there were calls by both Jackoyo Midiwo, Parliamentary Chief Whip, and James Orengo, Minister for Lands, that Kibaki endorse Raila for President. The proposal from the two speakers was that Kibaki should say “Raila tosha”, just like Raila did in 2002 before hitting the campaign trail to help Kibaki capture the Presidency. Despite the humble nature in which this request was presented, ODM politicians should stop asking Kibaki publicly to back Raila without first consulting with him privately.
On the contrary, Raila should fight it out through meticulous campaigns and convincing policies to win the Presidency. He should not be looking forward to Kibaki’s endorsement because ODM has declared that it is a democratic Party where all Presidential aspirants like Musalia Mudavadi will be given a fair chance to fight it out at ODM’s nominations for the top seat. If Kibaki accepts to endorse Raila, the move will be undermining the Presidential aspirations of other candidates and this may not auger well for internal democracy in the Party.
If Kibaki must endorse Raila, it should be out of his own volition, not through pressure carefully applied at public meetings. ODM politicians must learn to preserve their dignity because when they request Kibaki to endorse Raila and he declines, it is the faces of these politicians and Raila’s that suffers.
Currently, President Kibaki is very senile and this is evident when he talks in public where he sometimes mumbles incomprehensible sentences, much to the amusement of his audience. Under the circumstances, when he is asked to endorse Raila in public, he may not actually understand the question. Consequently, when he responds with his traditional mumblings, no one may really know whether he has answered the question according to how he perceived it or whether he just opened his mouth to speak because it was facing the microphone and he had to say something.
Another problem of requesting Kibaki to publicly endorse Raila is that such requests portrays Raila as a weak politician who could be banking on Kibaki’s endorsement for political advantage, an image that is not correct. Going by opinion polls over the last few years, both Raila and ODM remains the most popular Presidential candidate and Party. Raila does not, therefore, need Kibaki’s endorsement to win the Presidency. ODM politicians must keep off the cheap endorsement stunt because it is becoming embarrassing. When they open their mouths to make these absurd requests, the impression is that Raila may have requested them to do so. This impression could be demeaning in the eyes of Raila’s supporters.
In any case, how many times must Kibaki refuse to make the endorsement for “endorsement activists” within the Party to understand that he may not be interested in this cheap ploy?
Further, the sole reason why Kibaki has refused to sack Uhuru Kenyatta as Deputy PM following the ICC debacle is because he appointed him to that position because he viewed him as his possible successor. This was after Uhuru abandoned his KANU Party (where he remains the Chairman) to support PNU in 2007. For Kibaki, the Uhuru Project is not working because it has been scuttled by the ICC indictment. Kibaki is therefore a frustrated man at the moment and to have asked him to endorse Raila for President may have been a big insult.
ODM politicians must be strategic. If the Party is seriously seeking for Kibaki’s endorsement of Raila, it ought to employ a more structured approach towards the issue instead of opting for crude tactics in public. This could be done by seeking a private meeting with Kibaki to discuss the issue at length and convince the old man to buy the idea. Once he swallows the bait, the Party could then organize a public meeting in Bondo or Kisumu (home ground) where Kibaki could make the announcement.
Surprising Kibaki at an official public function to endorse Raila has failed on several occasions. In any case, such an endorsement could have far reaching political consequences for Kibaki as election campaigns take off. For this reason, such a request should not be left to chance after Kibaki is “cornered” somewhere in Kisumu city.
After stealing Raila’s presidency, it is natural that Kibaki owes Raila a favour. However, ODM politicians must remain sensitive to Kibaki’s circumstances and stop making requests crudely and without serious afterthoughts.
There should be no further endorsement requests without a strategy because Kibaki has shown that he is not willing to play ball. The fact that Raila said “Kibaki tosha” does not mean that history should repeat itself. ODM politicians should bank more on vigorous campaigns than begging Kibaki to endorse Raila at every opportunity. Raila has enough support to win the Presidency without Kibaki’s help. Although an endorsement could be a big boost to Raila’s campaign, Kibaki should be left alone to decide over the issue if he cannot be approached away from the public eye. This will spare ODM politicians a lot of embarrassing and theatrical moments in public.
Okoth Osewe
Secretary
Kenya red Alliance (KRA)
About the Author
Osewe, have you become Raila’s Advisor on Coalition Affairs?
and Logistically in Politics.They committed Suicide by firing Miguna Miguna in the time of need.
The former Maverick Railas advisor would be advicing the Ho:PM in the right manner by counteracting PNU thugs ,who are now convincing the Wananchi succession campagns to endorse Uhuru Kenyatta as Kibaki successor .ODM politicians should not sit idle and leckless waiting Only Raila to campaign and strategize his political campaihns alone.
ODM as a National accepted Political Party needs proper planning ,clarity of ideas ,Nationalism , patriotism and very aggressive radical policies.
There should never be compromising ideals btw ODM and GEMA-PNU thuggish Political Party .Pnu Gema Dirty Politics of suffocating and enslaving Kenyans must be fought and congquered.
ODM is an all inclusive Kenya peoples Party ,the demand for change is very urgent. Kenyans of all walks of life. Workers, civil servants, rural peasants, professionals, students, youth, women, the clergy, the unemployed, the disabled, the elderly, ‘jua-kali’ artisans, farmers, traders, manufacturers, and diasporants all yearning for a change in the political leadership and governance of a dynamic Kenya. ODM is determined to give it to them. ODM is determined to put an end to more than 48 years of repression, economic mismanagement, corruption, nepotism, tribalism, and the divide-and-rule tactics, which have kept Kenyans suspicious of each other, negating the quest for national unity. Kenya needs extremely radical and fundamental and much more far-reaching political, constitutional, economical, social, and cultural changes to meet the people’s wishes and aspirations – yet since the repeal of Section 2(a) of Kenya’s Constitution and the consequent re-introduction of multi-party politics, Kenyans have noticed no improvement in their lives. The PNU-GEMA regime has not only remained deaf to widespread and popular demand for constitutional reforms; for instance, the police reforms and land issue (Genuine land reforms) (Agrarian reform). This PNU-GEMA regime lead by the Kikuyu elite (MAFIA) has intensified repression, insecurity, and harassment of those clamouring for change. ODM must mobilize people the Kenyan masses to oppose and resist the GEMA’s cold leadership of darkness and death, in this time and era, which has resulted in insecurity and tribal skirmishes; for example, in the whole of Kenya’s (NFD-Province), namely Moyale, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, and Isiolo. ODM needs a very sophisticated strategy to sweep out the repressive regime that discourages freedom of press and speech that is terrorizing and suffocating progressive democratic changes the Kenyan people are willing to emphasize and achieve, while the GEMA regime has sought to systematically misinterpret the aims, goals, objectives, and practices of progressive Kenyan people and the International community.
1. My opinion is and has always been Raila stands to lose on account of a Kibaki endorsement.
If Kibaki remained the Kibaki he was untill 2002, it would be fine, but he has undergone a metamorphosis especially after he became more and more dependent on his close family members, advisers, associates and confidante civil servants.
The Kibaki now is a pale shadow of the former fighter Kibaki – the indefatigable nemesis of impunity and tribal hegemony. He is now a prisoner of his own conscience, but unable to break loose from the parochial tribal umbilical chord the guys around him has reattached.
Kibaki has been elevated by the same clique to be the patron saint of high-level corruption, tribal bias, and defiance to the constitution. He is elitist and habitually looks down upon the poor. It would seem as if he considered being poor is a sin!
Kibaki ialso acts insensitive to the mood of the nation if he sees he can get away with it and acts according to his whims and fancies, or follow the faulty advice of his henchmen. The only instance he joined Raila to go with the majority wish was in the case of the new constitution, may be remembering the egg left on his face in the referendum fiasco.
Instances are many when he behaved as if the new constitution he promulgated in Aug., 2010was not yet in force. He also pretended on occasions that the present govt was not a coalition one and he had an equal partner in with whom total consultation was mandatory in issues of appointments to constitutional posts. Whenever Raila grunted in dissatisfaction, Kibaki tried to disregard it, but courts stood firm, as in the case of Bashir and the arbitrary appointments which he had to retract.
Raila should not think that the presidency, this time, is his right. World does not end for him if he fails to get it. But whatever his detractors say, history will bear witness for his sacrifices and service to this nation. He has a legacy while Kibaki doesn’t, or doesn’t care to craft one for him.
If Raila fails in his bid for presidency this time, there may not be another chance for him. In that unlikely event, we may say he is the best president we never had!
Let me reiterate: A Kibaki endorsement is not going to give Raila any real advantage. .
Comment by MOHAN MATHEW | February 3, 2012
Why is The Kenya Government Disarming One Tribe leaving the other empty handed?Garba vs Boranas tribes of Moyale?>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6VGkI9Q9sU&feature=player_embedded
Saying ‘Raila tosha’ should be from Kenyans and not the lazy president Kibaki. The political field is different now compared to 2002.Raila has enough followers and does not need Kibaki.
Let us be honest. Raila’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga¨, “toshad” Jomo Kenyatta while he was still ín jail before independence. He became President because of Jaramogi’s acceptance and lack of selfishness. Had he been greedy, Kenyatta would have never been president.
Kenyan politics is about “scratch my back and I scratch yours”. Raila “toshad” Kibaki in 2002, so morally, Kibaki should “tosha” him in 2012-13. Kenyan politics is about understanding the local mood. If Raila had not okayed Kibaki in 2002, Luos would not have voted for him collectively. It is therefore important for Raila’s supporters to push Kibaki to prompt Kikuyus to vote for Raila. It sounds complicated, yet true.
Jomo Kenyatta had his “chosen few” that were voted back to Parliament unanimously when he “toshad” them, and later, Moi did the same.
Sometimes Kenyan politics is so rudimentary and must be assessed like a session of drinking tea.
Raila tosha without Kibaki
Wanjaka mtalia hadi damu ijitokeze kwa macho juu ata babake aling`angania lakini akashindwa akafa bure,so Mr Osewe it will never ever happen 2 go 2 Western pole sana the seat belongs 2 Central Amen.
Muthaura implicates himself by mentioning his role in the PEV:
Muthaura:
Am central in this government
Nothing happens in this government which I don’t know
I have been in government for too long because I am a professional
Am pleading with you not to… but there are ways that you can help
Can you act too quickly to assist us?
Unknown:
You are right, we are with you.
Bwana Muthaura, is it wrong for us to…
Muthaura:
– Am a very humble person
– Why hold government officers responsible for what they are supposed to do?
– We need some help without necessarily abusing the courts and talking about the need for…
– What is the police supposed to do when killings are going on?
– Government had to do something to prevent civil war
Unknown:
– We shall get you professional lawyers and political scientists at university to advise us how to assist you.
– They shall come up with powerful articles to advise us on what to write and not to write.
– Bwana Ambassador, your sentiments are understandable, we shall do everything to protect you, we shall go for it…
– Very many people have come to us for assistance to set up people, but we are not ready to do this, we have integrity and vision
– Things will be confidential, believe and trust in us.
Muthaura:
– The accusations which they are putting on me… together with Ali (Commissioner of Police)…
– Am chairman of National Security Advisory Committee
Everything is done by consensus in accordance with the law. Even the Attorney General is a member of that…
– If you are an adviser, you cannot take the highest responsibility. The person who advises you to advise the police should take the highest responsibility that is why it is an advisory body
– I advised the police on what to do
– Police had no option but to act according to magnitude of the problem
– Police targeted those who were burning houses and petrol stations. Somebody burning a petrol station, is that not a bomb? This is a thug. What options were there for the police?
– If demonstrators in Kibera or Kisumu were Luos, then obviously they become the victims, not that they were the targets.
– I instructed the police not to stop MUNGIKI because I had to support PNU and my course.
– It was ridiculous to ask Commissioner of Police to stop the MUNGIKI.
Unknown:
– You are right
– I will buy them lunch.
END OF TRANSCRIPT
A Kikuyu or Kalenjin President? It Makes Me Sick – Let’s Negotiate
Mon, 01/30/2012 03:24PM -0500
Now let us give the Kenyan political look a deeper scrutiny. We all know that Kenya is very tribal and it is this tribal politics that we live by. For sure I was born in Kikuyuland and therefore I am a Kikuyu by tribe. I never chose where to be born but I am a very proud Kenyan living in Europe. The most important issue for all the people of Kenya is a stable country that all will be treated as equal by law. We seem to have made great steps towards this. Suspension of Nancy Baraza, and stepping aside Uhuru Kenyatta and Muthaura is truly a sign of the New Kenya.
Knowing Kenya where justice is bought with money and favors will a Kenyan tribunal bring to justice IDP’s and over 1200 that were brutally killed during 2008/9 elections? The answer is no. If it were not for the Hague, Ruto will be vomiting on us all as he produces and directs more of his ‘strange movies’ for the Kenyan public political theatres for us to see. Kenyatta would be banging tables and calling people names dreaming to be better than his father and keep the family legacy going. Let us call a spade a spade – we need wealth and power to be spread all over Kenya. An empowered community is good for us all. We want every Kenyan to feel proud to be a Kenyan and the opportunity that Kenya brings.
‘Truth is naked’ and I want mine to be. I have the privilege of associating with a wider Kenyan population outside my own tribe therefore I have a feel of what the resentment of the other tribes about another Kikuyu president. Kikuyu’s have held presidency twice in the independent Kenya, both times with the ‘blessings’ of the family of late Jaramogi Odinga Oginga. We may easily forget the proclamations of Raila Odinga in 2002 while Kibaki was ill in the hospital, ‘Kibaki tosha’ or ‘no Uhuru without Jomo,’ by Raila’s late father Jaramogi Odinga Oginga.
Let us not forget former President Moi, a kalenjin by tribe ruled Kenya for 23 years and he is the ‘father’ of William Ruto’s wealth and ego today. Kenya does not need these two people and their ambitions for presidency, not now. Let us show love to our country, sensitivity and respect for the other tribes that Kenya is also theirs. They too can rule and make Kenya a better place for us all.
Whether we accept it or not we cannot be so selfish and quoting from Michela Wrong’s book, ‘It’s Our Turn to Eat,’ let Kikuyus and Kalenjin give others their turn to eat if you like. It is the truth of our living though this is changing and changing quick. No one will be taken for granted and therefore the need for us to work together and negotiate our eating position without making other so uncomfortable that they will gang up and through us out form the feast – let us apply wisdom, half bread is better than no bread at all.
Wisdom
Finally may God give us wisdom for the sake of our nation and her unity. If I were Uhuru or (Kibaki in secret) for that matter I would form a council of elders from Kikuyu land and drive or fly them to Kisumu, the home of the late Jaramogi Odinga Oginga. Everyone in the area would be suspicious – ‘what have this delegate of Ukuyu come to do in Nyalgunga,’ they will ask.
Being a guest of a prominent Luo, the Luos will show you their wealth and make sure their guests are treated like kings and queens. Mercedes benz, Hummer and expensive dressing suits will be worn for the day. The host will welcome you with their generosity of nyuka (uchuru) before the giant well made kwon (ugali or ngima) is ready. These days with everyone being aware of ‘eat your greens’ osuga (terere) will be on the table, with those looking for white meat wondering what aluru (ndutura) is on the table for. The meal will not be complete without omena (tuthamaki tunini) for those looking to build ‘brain muscle.’
The ceremony will start. Across the table would be Raila facing Uhuru and the tensions will be high. Raila would start his usual style. ‘Today we are playing at home. We want our visiting team to eat first. I want to tell them we never play a hungry team. There is no nyoyo (githeri) in the menu and for those who like mukimo they will have stay hungry for now. My name is Kimundu and I am the captain of the home team.’ Everyone bust in laughter.
Kalonzo will have had the gossip and having sneaked through the back door he will start praying in tongues. Nobody closes their eyes in suspicion of his presence. After all he is a wiper, and knowing Kisumu it rains all the time. It is left and right even when the sights are clear that it is a hot sunny day, the wiper is on.
Raila moves quickly sits and eats from the same plate as Uhuru as everyone bends down to eat avoiding the scene just in case it turns ugly. Nothing is left on the table as the tensions slowly withers away. Nobody knew they were business partners.
‘What brings nyumba ya Mumbi to the Dholuo land?’ asks Oburu.
SK Macharia stands to speak, he is one of the elders. ‘Hon Raila we have a kikuyu saying ‘mugi ni mwire,’ you are muthoniwa. Please I will leave that for the interpretation of your in-laws. I will tell you Hon Raila ‘ma mucii ti chomo.’
‘….. I know that one,’ Hon Raila shouts as he leads some elders including Uhuru to the inner chamber of his house. A deal is struck. The pain between Kikuyus and Luos of the past are buried in this meeting.
Hon Raila Odinga becomes the 4th president of the republic of Kenya and in their graves the late Jomo Kenyatta visit the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Kenya prospered thereafter with peace and tranquility. This is wisdom, let those who have eyes see it.
Original Author:
Macharia wa Gakuru
The Kikuyu Must Lead In Ending Tribalism In Kenya, Followed by the Kalenjin and then the Rest of the Country
Posted July 20, 2011 by Samuel N. Omwenga
I have just returned to the US from my most recent trip to Kenya and even though I frequently visit home, I must say it’s always quite refreshing just being home and each time I visit, there is something new I discover, or observe—and this trip was no different.
I will find time to more fully share my thoughts about what my other observations were on this particular trip but the one that I feel compelled to write about now, relates to my observation or information I was able to learn regarding the vastly changing attitudes and political maturity among our Kikuyu brothers and sisters from Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Muranga and Kiambu counties or just for convenience, let me refer to the whole group by its old name, Central Province.
Having extensively written on the issue of ending tribalism in Kenya, I must confess even as I write about the subject, I am often resigned in the background this is just but a dream wish for some progressives like myself because the reality of it is, old habits die hard.
Thus, even when I suggest as I have in the past that, if I were a Kikuyu, I would start an organization I have variously described as Kikuyu’s Against Another Kikuyu President –or something to that effect—something in the back of my mind keeps telling me this is simply a utopian dream.
I could be wrong and would obviously be glad to be so.
I have hastened to add that I hold that view—of not another Kikukuyu president; at least not this round or next, anyway—not because I have anything against Kikuyu’s—I don’t—but I do hold this view for the same reasons other progressive Kikuyus hold the same view, and that is, it is just neither fair nor just for an ethnically diverse and vast country such as Kenya to have two of its three presidents since its independence, hailing from the same tribe.
It’s the Clinton Fatigue, if you will, that many believe denied Hilary her official date with destiny at the White House; ditto for the Bush Fatigue whereby Jeb Bush who, better than his brother he might be, or even better than his father for that matter he could be, the United States of America simply can’t take another Bush at the White House; not any time soon, anyway.
And that includes anyone who may not be related but has the same name—just not another BUSH!
Same concept for Kenya—okay, Kenya goes more in that not just another Kenyatta (sorry UK) but not another Kikuyu either.
As noted above, not a shred of tribalism in many of us who say so; just a fact of life, if we are to be intellectually honest about these things.
All of us as Kenyans were happy to have and accepted Mzee Jomo Kenyatta as our first president and we lived with the fact that he was to be our president to the day he drew his last breath, which was fine; the man, after all, was very instrumental in our country’s gaining independence.
For purposes of this blog, I am not interested and neither am I evaluating the merits or demerits of Kenyatta’s rule.
That’ll be for another day
Kenyatta was, of course, succeeded by Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi.
Again, I am not interested and neither am I offering any evaluation of these two as our first and second president.
My point is, in 2002, having been fed up with the Moi rule, Kenyans in a euphoria never seen before, showed Moi and his pet project Uhuru the door and ushered in the Kibaki era.
Any informed political observer could not but recognize that, just like his father Jaramogi made the Kenyatta presidency possible, Raila, the son, made the Kibaki presidency possible by his “Kibaki Tosha” declaration.
In other words, Jaramogi assessed what was best for the country, and concluded it was best to put his own political ambitions on the side and make it possible for his friend Kenyatta to become president for the good of the country.
Fast forward to 2002, Jaramogi’s son, Raila, was faced with essentially the same decision, albeit under different circumstances, namely to do that which was politically expedient for him personally, or to do what was right for the country and just like his father before him, Raila chose to back Kibaki with his “Kibaki tosha” declaration, which made it possible for Kibaki, to be elected president.
These were not insignificant acts by either men from the Lake region.
On their own, conducting themselves in their respective times with such unparalleled political judgment and vision, except son mirroring father, coupled with their unmatched sense of self-confidence and sound decision making in the face of the most difficult of times, except as son mirroring father in this only such known example, these are qualities that have already enshrined the names Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and and Raila Amolo Odinga in the annals of Kenyan political history.
But the last chapter has yet to be written about this unique power making ability of father and son that is certain not to be seen again in our country, or elsewhere for that matter.
What reward does either of these men deserve for stepping in at the right time in our country’s critical points and acting unselfishly to save a nation of uncertainty but ensuring her of certainty as to new leadership of its people when doing otherwise would have perpetuated an undesirable status quo much to more suffering of the country?
Jaramogi was briefly rewarded with vice-presidency, only to have it taken away and he sent on permanent political exile.
I do always find it very poignant about Kenyatta, however, when he declared in Kisumu that, but for his friendship with Jaramogi, he would have had him arrested that day.
That alone is all anyone needs to study and understand about Kenyatta, Kenya and our politics, vastly changing as it is today: but for friendship…
What about Raila? What was his reward for “Kibaki tosha?”
What about the friendship between the two, born from that period of campaigning when a wheelchair bound Kibaki could not much campaign but his friend did so for him?
Was this friendship for naught as many feared following the elections of 2007?
Is it still for naught even long after the signing of the peace accord in Kenya?
Again, this is an analysis for another day but those of you who follow my writing, you’ll know I have previously and on more than one occasion suggested in open communication to Kibaki that, what a sweet irony it would be, for him to hand over power to Raila, the man who made him president to begin with, and the man who believes he stole the presidency from him in the second place.
Now, that’s a toast everyone would have to agree will be the mother of all toasts for our country not just because of the irony in it all but it shall be an essential and necessary point of closure as well.
I say essential and necessary point of closure as well because I believe closure must occur to complete this historic saga between the two men from the Lake region and the two men from Central, respectfully.
It’ll also mark the end of tribalism as we know it for other tribes will and must follow suit, especially given the likely healing to take place with Raila’s presidency.
It will be, of course, purely a matter of great intrigue were UK to wake up one of these mornings and head up to Raila’s residence and ask RAO to make him Vice President, thus, the son of our First President seeks Vice President from the son or our First Vice President who never saw the inside of State House as president thanks to the father of the son who now seeks the VP spot from the son who likely will occupy the office his father was unable to occupy as all roads to it were blocked by the son’s father whose own road to the State House appears to be all but blocked.
Purely a matter of great intrigue but I am afraid the time of it has come and gone.
In other words, there would have been a time this could have been possible, intriguing or otherwise.
That time has been overtaken by events.
The dynamics in Central are changing so fast, even a scenario where UK were to be VP Candidate will be quickly rejected by the good people of Central, telling Raila he could do better and he must.
But not without help from the good people of Central.
I think they hold the key to majorly dealing with tribalism in Kenya.
It’s their right of first refusal, and I truly hope and believe they take up the opportunity and just deliver.
Otherwise, by failing to do so, does not and will not mean we cannot end or deal a major blow to tribalism come 2012: we shall and we must I just wish our brothers and sisters take heed and provide the leadership.
They have risen to the occasion in the founding of our nation but that was only half the battle.
The major battle lies ahead in combating the trio vices of tribalism, corruption and impunity.
We are well underway in dealing with the other two, but tribalism looms large and must be confronted from all directions.
Asking the Agikuyu to lead in this war (to end tribalism), should and is intended to honor them and their contribution in our country’s history.
No one and certainly not I wishes to render any of them irrelevant or less important as we move forward with a new Kenya.
By historical nature and other considerations, the Kikuyu shall and will always be an integral part of the Kenyan social-economic and political fabric.
What I am urging, is a recognition of this and looking beyond 2012 and for our brothers and sisters to decide now and presently how best to proceed together towards these idealistic goals we must attain as a nation.
How Kikuyus vote in 2012 will reveal quite a bit about how the community sees its role in the vastly changing and new Kenya: vote as a block for one of their own and remain stuck in the past or move in the direction of new Kenya by spreading their vote around as they ought to, even on a limited and constrained manner.
As I always say, if there is tomorrow, there is hope.
I have been thinking about the Kikuyu factor last several days and putting aside those who belong to two voting blocks at the national level, which I believe will shape and even decide the politics of 2012 and that is the Youth and Women voters blocks, there are three voting blocks in Central that I can see as follows:
1.The Progressives Group A. This group is relatively young, intelligent and sophisticated enough not to be swayed by cheap politics. You’ll insult this group, if you try to get their vote by telling them you are so or by flashing your ill-gained wealth. To get this group’s vote, you’ll have to tell them precisely why you are running for president, what you intend to do and what difference will that make to the country, let alone their own bottom lines. This group is very quiet and merely observing the noise makers but in the end, will cast their vote or not at all, depending whether they are impressed by any of the candidates. They are willing to accept, and in fact would prefer a non-Kikuyu president so long as that person makes the case and persuades them they deserve their vote. This group will be the swing vote in Central just as their counterparts will be in other regions of the country.
2.The Progressives Group B. This group is relatively older, and in some cases very old. They are intelligent and sophisticated as well, if less than their Progressive Group A counterpart. They are old school in every respect: conservative and old fashioned, that is. They will not vote for a woman for president so any aspiring woman for president may as well not waste much time with them. Ditto for every presidential candidate. They know precisely who they are going to vote for but would not admit publicly. Having value and political capital associated with their names, and especially having been around for so long, their value is in quietly rooting for their victor. Any candidate will get mileage merely by being publicly seen with them but that in by itself shall remain a rarity until perhaps very close to elections day. Their word is bankable and so are bills in their overstocked wallets. They are a swing vote but for a different purpose: they will determine how far tribalism is to be tackled in Central Province than any single group. Unlike they younger counterparts in progressive thinking, they are not all that gang-ho about voting for anyone outside of central. The goal is not to have them say not in which case it’ll be a definitely road to nowhere by the recipient of such a curse from any one of them, which in essence is a collective force for they think alike, drink tea alike and influence votes alike.
3.The Village Kings. They are old with very little formal education but they can write a thesis on Central politics. They are to Central what Central is to the rest of the country. A force to reckon. They are not likely; in fact, they will not vote for anyone outside their own backyard or frontyard, if at all. They have never been happy with any president, including Kenyatta himself but he stands and will always stand tall than any you can dare compare him to; from near or afar. Theirs, is a question of loyalty to the House of Mumbi . Nothing more nothing less. To vary their thinking to the point they can vote someone outside Central, will take something of a small miracle. In fact, it’ll take a fairly large miracle of the kind not seen lately within our borders. Any presidential candidate is advised not to waste their time seeking votes from among this group. Only bet is to work with the Progressives Groups A or B in the hopes they can persuade a handful of them to cast their vote for them, and even then, merely as a token of appreciation for the effort and nothing more. In a tight race to the top, that handful may be the ones just necessary to get over the top and thus the advice never to give up hope, even on a tough group like this one. Indeed, one might even be surprised and find a bit more than a handful of votes from any of their counties. Every vote counts. This is what this expression is meant to describe.
For those who follow my writing, I have repeatedly made the case of all the presidential candidates, only Raila appears to be the one to beat and I can now categorically state contrary to the mistaken belief by many, by saying Raila is the man to beat does not mean Raila will be beaten by another man (or woman in that matter) rather, he will be beaten by the only force than can stop him and that is, tribalism or more specifically, what Kikuyu’s decide to do about it.
If Kikuyu’s were to look back at history, the choice for president for them come 2012 must be Raila, even if their own son is on the ballot.
This is because, as I have noted above, it’s neither fair nor just to deny others a chance at the presidency simply because your own is running.
Rather, there has to be a shift in paradigm on tribalism, which ought to and must begin in 2012.
Jaramogi was not looking at Kenyatta as a Kikuyu in deciding not to throw him under the bus and assuming the presidency himself.
Neither was Raila looking at Kibaki as a Kikuyu in deciding not to throw him under the bus and either heading to the State House himself, or throwing his weight behind someone else who would have been equally elected as Kibaki was in 2002.
Both men from the Lake region obviously knew the two individuals they supported in their respective times, were Kikukuyu men but that was not the deciding factor in their choosing to do what they did: they both looked at the men in their respective times and concluded each was fit and, indeed, the best person to take the helm of power in Kenya as president at the critical times in our history when, by their unselfish and nationalistic move, each declared their man tosha and the rest is history:
Jaramogi, in his mind, said “Kenyatta tosha” and that was enough to usher in the Kenyatta era.
Raila said “Kibaki tosha” and that was enough to usher in the Kibaki era.
Kenyatta is not around and neither is Jaramogi but I am willing to bet, had you asked Kenyatta, he would have preferred that Jaramogi succeed him as president and this I say notwithstanding the bitter ending of their once very warm relationship.
I am equally willing to bet Kibaki in his warm heart wishes Raila succeeds him as president, again notwithstanding the bitter rivalry between the two, especially leading up to the elections of 2007 and the aftermath.
This can be only a natural thing to do, unless one is not prone to natural tendencies.
All Kibaki has to do, is to call a rally anywhere in Central and simply say, Raila tosha.
He, of course, would have to say that in Kikuyu and that’s not being tribal; there is nothing wrong in expressing ourselves in a language that needs no translation in meaning, if it’s for good, not evil purpose.
Kibaki so declaring will accomplish several things:
First, it would show that Kibaki himself is not afraid to say to the country, “we need a break from another Kikuyu president.”
Second, this would reaffirm what most Kenyans being surveyed are saying to date and that is, among those who have declared their interest in the presidency, Raila really is the man so saying Raila tosha in this sense will replicate the history of 2002 and the euphoria that followed.
We need a good doze of that this time around and who better is positioned to deliver this than Kibaki himself.
Third, this would publicly remove the myth that exists out there that Kikuyus from Central will never vote for anyone from outside their region.
My sense of it, this is no longer the case but who can better eviscerate this myth than Kibaki himself.
Fourth, such a declaration will put an end to the permanent campaigns that are taking place even before MPs pass legislation implementing the Constitution under which the new elections must be held, which in turn will focus the energy now being expended in search of tribal groupings, to something more productive, if any.
Fifth, such a declaration shall put to rest this notion that Kibaki is not decisive.
I have said several times in the past that Kibaki is one decisive president we have heard, he just gets bad rap on this aspect of his presidency.
Kibaki has played his cards well as to the succession politics and I have no doubt he is busy doing things to both rehabilitate and solidify his legacy.
A declaration of Raila tosha in Central surely must and ought to feature somewhere in his bag of tricks and if not, he should seriously consider it.
I am willing to bet of my 3 groups I analyze above, one will be fully in support of such bold, objective and decisive move by Kibaki. One may be lukewarm and the other one would absolutely condemn the move.
Indeed, the challenge for Kibaki is how willing is he to dare the most adamantly opposed to the idea that he is his own man and can call the shots in full recognition of his responsibility as both president of the Republic of Kenya and the son of the House of Mumbi.
No one stands above him and neither can there be anyone who can dare question his wisdom, if he were to dare to do so.
Yes, they’ll call him names. Yes. They’ll curse him out.
But in the end, he will stand tall and fade into the glory of our country’s history as a shining example of true leadership beyond any we have witnessed in the country.
He will surpass both of his predecessors by far by just that one action to end the vile disease of tribalism.
His role in the passage of the new Constitution will be simply his other major accomplishment.
2007 will pale in comparison.
This is a dare.
Going by what I saw in a number of events in Kenya last week, including some I personally attended in Thika and Kandara, Kibaki’s message of Raila tosha will be very well received because my sense is, the people of Central are ready for such bold moves and declarations from the leaders from the region.
Raila can deliver the message and I am sure it’ll continue to be favorably received, with the help of his other supporters from the area but would it not be such a fresh day in Kenya consistent with the new spirit of a new Kenya if Kibaki were to make such a declaration, and not even stop there—CAMPAIGN for RAILA to succeed him as president!
Why not; what should he be afraid of? As FDR famously said, fear nothing but fear itself!
Yes, it’ll be earth moving stuff akin to earthquakes and tsunamis but Kenya needs nothing less to do deliver a major, if not a fetal blow to the debilitating disease of tribalism.
Okay, Kibaki need not say exactly “Raila tosha” in those exact words or even in Kikuyu; he merely needs to give a very strong signal to the people of Central—and all Kenyans for that matter, that we must henceforth judge and vote for our leaders, especially at the presidential level, not based on what ethnicity or tribe they hail from, rather, by their proven qualities of leadership and on this account alone, I have no doubt Kibaki will be comfortable and confident to say, Raila tosha.
Let’s hope he does so.
The 2012 presidential elections is taking shape. Your opinions are correct to the letter. Even if President Kibaki was to endorse PM Odinga, it’s too early. Thanks
Raila said Kibaki need not come out in public to announce “Raila Tosha” in the same way he (Raila) did for him in the 2002 election “as it would be coming from an individual and not the majority of Kenyans”. “Kibaki should not say Raila Tosha. I want Kenyans to accept me, not an Individual. Let him be silent and leave it for the people to decide,’’ Raila said.
The era of endorsements deciding the presidency is over why are the political class refusing to open their eyes to the new reality? The next election will be decided by the young people of Kenya and they are in a foul mood at the moment and terribly impatient measuring Kenya on the same scale as developed economies whose democracies are over 100 years old. They watch their news and admire the American system of governance and are continually asking themselves why not Kenya?
KIBAKI AS A DRUG WAR-LORD/MKM (MTS MAFFIA) AND GEMA CHAUVINIST MUST FOLLOW THE RULE OF LAW>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZRWeh7obDA&feature=player_embedded