Kenya Stockholm Blog

Who Will Become Kenya’s Next President?

Although more than 30 political parties have been registered in Kenya, the real battle for the Presidency will be fought on two fronts. On the one hand will be a conglomeration of Parties seeking the retention of power by the corrupt and filthy-rich Kikuyu ruling elite while on the other will be a cluster of parties seeking to dismantle the power structure of this class which has ruthlessly looted the country’s resources since the days of Kenyatta before President Kibaki came to power about a decade ago, principally to perpetuate the status quo.

The bottom line is that parties vying for power in Kenya, from ODM, PNU, NARC-Kenya, FORD-Kenya, URP to UDF, New Ford Kenya, Kenya National Congress and Wiper Democratic Party, are all ideologically bankrupt. This explains the persistent ethnic identities of these parties, their lack of tangible policies that can be sold to Kenyans and the utter confusion known to reign supreme once these parties come to power. In the absence of ideological parties armed with clear programs, analysis of political parties in Kenya is fundamentally ethnic based, if not, tribally oriented. A dominant feature in the ethnic arrangement in Kenya’s politics is that there is a marked hatred of the Kikuyu ruling class because of bad memories and dirty histories. This perception will, no doubt, complicate the Presidential ambitions of any Kikuyu candidate in the next elections.

Three reasons why Kikuyu ruling elite is hated by millions of Kenyans
The Kikuyu ruling elite is hated by millions of Kenyans from 41 ethnic groups because of three major reasons. The first reason is “running down Kenya”. Since this elite took power in January 2003, it has plundered the country’s economy, looted the country’s Treasury disproportionately, accumulated enormous wealth through theft of public funds, violated the human rights of Kenyans with impunity, perpetuated corruption at all levels of government, entrenched tribalism especially in the appointment of top  public servants, remained totally unaccountable in matters of public policy and treated Kenya like a permanent “Kikuyu property” whose people must be ruled by a Kikuyu. Because of the excesses of the Kikuyu ruling class, being a Kikuyu has become a huge burden to millions of law abiding, poor and deprived Kikuyus equally suffering alongside millions of other Kenyans. In fact, the general hatred of the ruling Kikuyu elite is the main fuel propelling alternative non-Kikuyu Parties seeking power in Kenya. For every ethnic group, “it’s their turn to eat” because the perception is that the Kikuyu have been eating for “too long”.

The second reason why the Kikuyu ruling elite is hated in Kenya is because of what is largely perceived as sheer arrogance and lack of respect for the 41 ethnic groups that constitute the Kenyan Nation. After Jomo Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, held power for fifteen years, and after President Mwai Kibaki, another Kikuyu, has held power for 10 years (assuming he completes his final term), the most other ethnic groups expected was for the Kikuyu elite to lie low (like an envelope) especially on the question of Kenya’s fourth President. The reason is that in the last 48 years, the Kikuyu have held power for 25 years, which, according to the non-Kikuyu view, is more than enough. The situation could have been different if Kenya was driven by ideological politics because then, the ethnic origin of a President wouldn’t matter since voters would be following ideas and not individual ethnic sentiments. Instead of cooling down their heels on the question of the next President, what has the Kikuyu elite been doing?

They have been busy, setting up one political Party after another on which to seek the Presidency. In fact, a section of the Kikuyu elite are even trying to sell Uhuru Kenyatta, a suspected criminal and ICC indictee, as the next President of the Republic and this is what is driving some Kenyans to puke. The arrogance of this filthy elite is so notorious that the crimes against humanity Uhuru is facing does not matter. Uhuru is, himself, so arrogant that he has refused to resign as Deputy Prime Minister following his indictment, thereby violating the new Kenyan constitution. President Kibaki is himself so arrogant that he has refused to sack the DPM (following ICC indictment) although Uhuru is violating the very Constitution that Kibaki was so proud to promulgate in August 2010. Instead of concentrating on his defence at the ICC, Uhuru has overtly been propagating hate speeches from one “Prayer meeting” after another to fuel bitter inter-ethnic strife with the sole objective of stirring a new, bloody and genocidal civil war unrivaled in Kenya’s history before he leaves for the ICC any time soon. Because of this unspeakable arrogance, millions of Kenyans are convinced that it is time for a break with the Kikuyu ruling elite at the helm. So far, six Kikuyu candidates namely Uhuru Kenyatta, Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth, Paul Muite, Mutava Musymi and Prof George Saitoti, are vying for President. Although it is their democratic right to do so, the unfavourable anti-Kikuyu wave born out of justifiable historical circumstances and realities have not been a hindrance.

The final reason why the Kikuyu ruling elite is hated in Kenya is because this cabal is largely seen to have been responsible for the rigging of election in 2007 thereby preventing Raila Odinga from seizing power to fulfill long standing expectations of millions of voters who voted for him. It is widely believed by many Kenyans and observers alike that the Post Election Violence (PEV) could not have happened if Kibaki had handed over power to Raila. The key explanation why the Kikuyu elite stole Raila Odinga’s Presidency is because they did not believe that Raila would protect their massive and stolen wealth. These are the same fears driving the current anti-Raila campaign especially from the Kikuyu elite. In Kenya, it is called “Railaphobia”.

Is Kalenjin support for a pro-Kikuyu candidate possible?
Other forces campaigning against Raila outside Kikuyuland are not doing so primarily because of fear that Raila will not protect their stolen wealth but because of misplaced individual power ambitions. This is the ground where William Ruto and his URP, Eugine Wamalwa and his New Ford Kenya, Kalonzo Musyoka and his Wiper Party together with late comer, Musalia Mudavadi, and his newly found UDF are all camping. The big problem the non-Kikuyu anti-Raila clowns are facing is that members of their ethnic groups have equal (if not worse) hatred for the Kikuyu ruling elite. Three examples will suffice.

The Kalenjin is not an ethnic group but a conglomeration of many ethnic groups – Samburu, Turgen, Nandi, Turkana, Sabaot, Masaai et al. It is hardly plausible to argue that the Kalenjin love the Kikuyu ruling class and given the tension around land issues that has dominated the histories of these communities (with the Kikuyu being accused of having grabbed Kalenjin land), the only reason why the Kalenjin support is being associated with the G7 is because of the assumption that Ruto will actually stand as a Presidential candidate, a big illusion because Ruto will be arrested as soon as he arrives at the ICC to face crimes against humanity.

At that point, the perceived Kalenjin support for any presidential candidate from Kikuyuland will simply evaporate. This is because the Kalenjin are already arguing that they supported a Kikuyu in 2002 (Uhuru) and that a new support for a new Kikuyu presidential candidate will be “too much” expectation. In 2007, the Kalenjin were strongly advised by former President Moi to vote for Kibaki but they responded by voting for Raila and ejecting all of Moi’s children and sycophants from Parliament. To assume that the Kalenjin will follow Ruto like goats being herded into a pen is to fail to learn from recent Kalenjin history. Voting for a Kikuyu President will simply threaten Kalenjin consolidation of land they gained following the PEV and it is just a matter of time before this perspective is confirmed. This explains why despite the protracted Uhuru-Ruto dance-shows at the so-called Prayer meetings, Kikuyu IDPs are not moving an inch from the filthy camps to resettle in the Rift Valley. They are simply not welcome by the Kalenjin and this position is what will duplicate itself at the ballot. Will the Kalenjin vote for Mudavadi instead?

Mudavadi’s baggage as a Kikuyu-ruling class fall-back candidate
If Mudavadi was truly an independent minded candidate, he could have been the perfect alternative who could have scooped any anti-Raila votes in Kalenjin land.  Since he decamped from ODM to UDF, Mudavadi has quickly emerged as a Moi-Kibaki Project and a fall-back candidate of the Kikuyu ruling elite which knows and understands that Uhuru, their preferred candidate, will be locked in The Hague sooner rather than later. The profile of Mudavadi as the “Kikuyu mask” in a “Luhya skin” will deprive him of both the Kalenjin and Luhya votes from “anti-Kikuyu ruling class voters” from these communities. This is why Mudavadi is heading for political oblivion.

From the local newspapers, it is now public knowledge that UDF was set up by Kibaki’s boys for Uhuru Kenyatta before things went terribly wrong, forcing Uhuru to abandon the ill-fated Party which Mudavadi has converted into a new home. Needless to say, Mudavadi’s welcoming ceremony at KICC last week was infested with top KANU apparatchiks because Moi sent them to back his candidate. So far, KANU has no Presidential candidate and it will not be surprising if, at the next Press conference, Kenyans hear that KANU is backing Mudavadi! Nick Salat, a KANU fat cat, was introduced at Mudavadi’s UDF reception along with other medium-sized KANU lap dogs who might not even make it back to Parliament because KANU is essentially a dead Party.  Although many Luhya’s may be sympathetic to Mudavadi because of blood relations, majority of their top leaders refused to follow him to UDF, why?

Just like other ethnic groups who have suffered under the weight of the thieving Kikuyu elite, the Luhyas harbour equal and atavistic hatred for the Kikuyu ruling elite. Since Mudavadi’s strategy appears to be based on re-packaging himself as an alternative Kikuyu ruling class candidate (given the impending lock-up of Uhuru Kenyatta at The Hague), the impact of Mudavadi’s Presidential candidacy was greatly diluted.

Eugine Wamalwa and Political milk from the G7 cow
The same problem bedevils Eugine Wamalwa whose membership in the G7 Alliance locates him in the murky pool of Kikuyu ruling class fall-back candidates. In fact, the appointment of Wamalwa as Minister for Justice to replace the highly performing Mutula Kilonzo did more harm than good to the young Eugine because the appointment reinforced his profile as a confirmed stooge of the Kikuyu ruling elite.

Hours after his appointment, he was manipulated to begin steering the Justice Ministry on anti-ICC tracks and he did his job with gusto. Eugine has been doing poorly in the opinion polls primarily because of the Kikuyu ruling class “baggage” he carries on his shoulders at every G7 rally. The inability of Eugine to realise that he is being used as the new toilet paper (following the dumping of Wetangula) adds flesh to his image as an “overgrown political baby”. When I warned Wetangula in February 2008 that he would be used and dumped by the Kikuyu elite, he did not understand despite his law degree.

With Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto locked behind bars at The Hague; with Martha Karua, George Saitoti, Mutava Musymi, Paul Muite and Peter Kenneth emerging as non-starters because of the “Kikuyu baggage” on their backs and lack of a national appeal; with Mudavadi’s political profile suffering under the weight of multiple corruption scandals, “Kikuyu mask in a Luhya skin” image, Johnny come lately perspective, latter day ODM traitor badge; “UDF a Moi-Kibaki Project” stamp; with Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper “Demographic” Party having been wiped out of the political map following the 2007 burial of Kalonzo’s political future after election rigging; and with naïve Wamalwa unable to make an impact because of being fed too much “political milk” from the hated G7 cow, who will become Kenya’s next President? Your guess could be as good as mine but do I say!

Okoth Osewe

May 9, 2012 Posted by makozewe | News & Analysis | 18 Comments