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February 8, 2012 Posted by makozewe | News & Analysis | 9 Comments

Mudavadi’s Presidential Ploy Has Silenced His Critics

The strategy has boosted Mudavadi's immage and confused enemy forces

Probably, the most effective propaganda ploy to have been manufactured by ODM’s strategists ahead of the General election is what can be called the “Mudavadi Presidential bait”. This bait has been swallowed by both important institutions and individual players in Kenyan politics. Rival political parties, the punditocracy, the anti-ICC turn-coats in the Uhuru/Ruto camp, Kenya Diaspora and sections of the “Wanjiku community” are all regurgitating “the new threat” being posed to Raila Odinga’s presidential bid by Musalia Mudavadi, the ODM’s Deputy Party leader.

ODM’s leadership should be elated with the efficacy of this ingenious politrick because when it was mooted late last year, the objective was not to divert the attention of enemy forces or confuse the public but to counter poisonous enemy propaganda that had began to undermine Mudavadi’s political standing, authority and influence within ODM.

It is informative that just before Mudavadi was catapulted into getting Raila to “quake in his boots”, Mudavadi’s arch rivals in the Luhya camp notably Moses Wetangula, Cyrus Jirongo and Eugine Wamalwa, had teamed up with opportunists in the Ruto/Uhuru/Kalonzo camp to undermine Mudavadi’s authority in order to try and replace him as the “King of the Luhya” in Kenyan politics.

The narrative was that with his “sycophantic loyalty” to Raila Odinga, Mudavadi was playing second fiddle instead of asserting his authority and building a stronger image as a national leader. Mudavadi’s critics opined that the DPM ought to abandon his traditional strategy of waiting on the wings to succeed his boss and, instead, enter the Kibaki succession contest by giving Raila a run for his money.

To hammer their point home, Mudavadi’s critics portrayed him as a perpetual weakling who was under the armpit of Raila, arguing that the Luhya ought to look away from Mudavadi if the community wanted to navigate their way to State House because Mudavadi was contented with being a big fish in a small ODM pond.

During the failed, Moi-engineered Uhuru Project in 2002, Mudavadi was Uhuru’s running mate and he joined the statistics of those who never made it to Parliament. When he crawled to ODM from KANU to re-invent himself politically, the prevailing political equation saw Mudavadi settle as Raila’s running mate in 2007. Mudavadi’s waiting game paid off because when the Coalition government was cobbled by Kofi Annan following the stealing of Raila Odinga’s Presidency, he was awarded the DPM’s post by dint of having been Raila’s running mate. Now that Mudavadi had once again settled down as Raila’s running mate in the Kibaki succession race, his detractors in the Luhya camp have been busy portraying him as a perpetual underdog who did not carry the presidential aspirations of the Luhya people.

The situation was further complicated by Luhya leaders whom, one after another, continued to present themselves as alternative leaders ready to go for the presidency if Mudavadi had decided to sleep on the job.

The impact of this critique was that the authority of Mudavadi within ODM began to wane as his “second fiddle image” in relation to Raila also began to take root among supporters who were buying the prevailing propaganda. Although his position as Raila’s deputy has never been challenged, the political implication of constant propaganda churned by his detractors is that Luhyas ought to postpone State House ambitions because Mudavadi is sitting pretty as a potential Vice president in the anticipated government of Raila Odinga. It is against this background that Mudavadi’s presidential bait may have been mooted within ODM’s inner circle.

How did Mudavadi hit the campaign trail for ODM’s endorsement?
The scheme began in Sirisia on December 23rd last year at the Khachonge home of Patrick Wangamati, the Chairman of Luhya Council of Elders who is reported to have endorsed Mudavadi as the sole Presidential candidate from Luhya land.

This endorsement, which was witnessed by Foreign Affairs Minister, Moses Wetangula, Minister for Forestry, Noah Wekesa, Vihiga MP Yusuf Chanzu and Shinyulu MP Justus Kizito, was apparently illegal because according to Joseph Wasilwa, a member of the Luhya Council of Elders, the endorsement was done without the knowledge or blessing of the Council. Wasilwa accused Wangamati of endorsing Mudavadi as top Presidential contender without consultation with the elders, alleging that Wangamati was exploiting his position as the Council’s Chairman to gain political mileage. Wasilwa was concerned that while endorsing Mudavadi single handedly, Wangamati had sidelined other presidential candidates from Luhya land.

Unfortunately, Wasilwa’s cry of foul play failed to gain recognition because of the diverse configuration of participants who also witnessed the Mudavadi endorsement. Among those present were elders from 18 Luhya sub tribes including the Teso, Sabaot, Kony, Ndorobo and Morimo while Dr. Machanja Ligabo, Chairman of Western Elders Advisory council is said to have attended one of the planning meetings to discuss “Luhya unity”, a euphemism which has become associated with Mudavadi’s endorsement. At the December 23rd meeting, both Mudavadi and Wetangula asked Wangamati to convene a meeting of all 24 MPs from Western province before Parliament reopens “to discuss unity” among the Luhyas. The meeting was also addressed by former Cabinet minister Burundi Nabwera who is also Chairman of Luhya Elder’s Forum.

A curious observation is that hours before he joined Wangamati to witness Mudavadi’s endorsement on December 23rd last year, Wetangula met fellow Cabinet ministers, Anyang’ Nyongo and Lands Minister, James Orengo for more than an hour at the Imperial Hotel in Kisumu to discuss an ODM-Ford-Kenya election campaign pact. Specifically, the agenda was for Wetangula to drop his presidential bid and instead, support Raila’s bid in a newly found cooperation between ODM and Ford-Kenya. Once the deal was sealed, Wetangula relocated straight to Sirisia, on time for Mudavadi’s “coronation”. Mudavadi’s presidential bid is therefore a carefully worked-out strategy which can only worry the man in the streets.

Politically, the close proximity between Wangamati, Wetangula and Mudavadi is based more on immediate political advantages rather than agreement in Party policies. Wangamati is eying the post of governorship in Bungoma county and by using his position as Chairman of Luhya Council of Elders to give Mudavadi an advantage over his (Mudavadi’s) rivals through endorsements, Wangamati is hoping that Mudavadi will reciprocate by supporting him for his bid for Bungoma governor. On the other hand, Wetangula is a politician without an Alliance and by being present when Mudavadi was apparently being endorsed as the Luhya Kingpin, the Foreign Affairs minister was sending the message that Mudavadi also needed to scratch his back by strengthening the nascent ODM-Ford-Kenya pact. If it sees the light of day, this pact is likely to give Wetangula a new role to play because the pact remains the only route through which Ford-Kenya can be included in the next government. Once he got a kick from Wangamati, Mudavadi hit the road for “his quest for Presidency” and there was no better ground to set off the campaigns apart from his own Party, ODM. In a public meeting attended by both Raila Odinga and Mudavadi, the two promised to support whoever is nominated as flag bearer of the Party. The “Mudavadi presidential bait” had been set in motion and it is doing quite well.

By going for the top seat, Mudavadi has achieved three objectives. He has silenced critics who have been attacking him as a weak politician always being led by the nose by Raila Odinga; destroyed the perception that he is a coward who is always satisfied with playing second fiddle; boosted his image by exploiting the confusion created by his Presidential ambitions to emerge as “a man of his own”. The strategy has even confused enemy forces currently dangling the carrot of support if  Mudavadi can join them as a “compromise candidate”. In the meantime, Mudavadi’s new profile as Raila Odinga’s biggest challenger within the Party can be sold to the public as a sign of a well entrenched practice of internal democracy in ODM which should be emulated by all parties.

Okoth Osewe

February 8, 2012 Posted by makozewe | News & Analysis | 25 Comments