Kenya Stockholm Blog

A Terrorist Attack On Kenya Is Inevitable/Flashback

“For the terrorists, there may be no reason for treating the Kenyan government as a regime that may change its attitude towards Al Qaida and for this reason, it may be time for Kenya to pay through a well coordinated terrorist attack. The terrorists may decide to strike before June when sources say that President Barack Obama may travel to Kenya on his way to South Africa to open the World Cup. The period between now and June is therefore critical” (KSB: January 27th 2010).

It may be a matter of time before a new terrorist bomb explodes in Kenya especially in the city of Nairobi because extremist Islamic fundamentalists now have enough reasons to attack Kenya once again. Since 1998, Kenya has had two serious terrorist attacks “to teach the country a lesson” and now, we may be on the verge of experiencing another attack unless something dramatic happens. Why?

The Abdulla al Faisal fiasco has left Kenya very vulnerable especially after the government used its security forces to attack Jamia Mosque (the symbol of Islam in Nairobi) during a demonstration by Muslim youths to protest against the arrest and harassment of Al Faisal who arrived in the country incognito and quickly took over the face of “Muslim persecution” in Kenya by the government. His presence in the country was like a “wake up call” to Muslims that the government of Kenya hates them.

Al Faisal had not committed any known crime in Kenya at the time of his arrest and attempted deportation, save for the existence of his name on the US list of terror suspects. The number of Muslims who attended the pro-Al Faisal demo indicates that the Islamic Cleric had support of ordinary Muslims across the country regardless of what their leaders were saying. For Al Qaida, it is unlikely that the mistreatment of Al-Faisal at the hands of the Kenyan authorities will go unpunished and this is one reason why Kenyans ought to be bracing themselves for a vicious attack. It will be a sign of weakness on the part of Al Qaida if it cannot respond and send a clear message to the Kenyan government through a huge explosion that will send Kenyans running helter-skelter in Nairobi or elsewhere in a moment of shock.

Traditionally, Islamic militants rightfully view the Kenyan government as a puppet regime which takes orders from both Washington and London. Following the bloody US war of aggression in Iraq, Kenyan Muslims suspected of having links with terrorists became victims of repeated renditions to Guantanamo and today, some Muslim victims have not been repatriated to Kenya. Al Qaida has never punished Kenya for the renditions. Although Al Faisal passed unscathed through other African countries like Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Angola, Al Qaida (and Muslims alike) may interpret his nabbing in Kenya as the product of American/British influence thus the need to teach the Kenyan government a lesson one more time. Al Qaida is not known to send delegations to State House but to attack with bombs.

Our country is the headquarters of CIA, M16 and Mossad operations in East and Central Africa while in North Eastern Province, both American and British troops have unlimited access to vast and cordoned-off military zones where US/British soldiers can train at will and on a routine basis as they rape Kenyan women. American war ships are known to dock at the Port of Mombasa so that their troops can relieve tension with Kenyan women at the Coast. According to Osama bin Laden, the 1998 August 7 terrorist bomb which destroyed US Embassy in Kenya and in which more than 200 Kenyans perished was a punishment by Al Qaida for Kenya’s link with the United States. Osama has just sent an audio message to Obama to expect continued Al Qaida attacks and targeting Kenya, an American ally and basically, a sitting duck, could be a good start.

The terrorist bombing of Paradise Hotel in Mombasa in 2002 by members of Al Qaida was to punish the country for its links with the Israelis and the choice of Paradise Hotel was not accidental because it was being owned by an Israeli. Since the Nairobi and Paradise Hotel bomb blasts, there has been no further and serious punishment of Kenya because Al Qaida may have thought that the Kenyan government had learnt good lessons. Unfortunately, the government has continued to act provocatively and in a way that suggests that it never got the message. This is another reason why a terrorist attack on Kenyan soil is inevitable.

During the Al Faisal demo in Nairobi, reports indicated that five Muslims were shot dead by police. According to a statement released through revolutionmuslim.com (which has posted the first interview with Al Faisal since his arrival in Jamaica) the prayer of Al Qaida is that Allah bestow upon the slain Kenyan Muslims the honor of martyrs. Be that as it may, Al Qaida will, most likely, want to revenge their deaths and there is no better way of doing so than exploding a huge car bomb at Nairobi’s Central Business District to kill as many Kenyans as possible or sending a suicide bomber to blast one of the five star hotels to kill “Kafirs”.

Kenya is at the mercy of the terrorists
The mass arrest of Muslims in Nairobi in the name of “flushing out terrorists” was obviously a provocation of Muslims and an open invitation of Al Qaida to attack Kenya. The government arrested people indiscriminately and without evidence that they were terrorists. Majority of them were of Somali origin, the home of Al Shabbab. To fuel the fire, Professor George Saitoti, the Minister of Internal Security, claimed at a News conference that members of Al Shabbab, a terrorist group staging an armed resistance in Somalia, had not just infiltrated the Nairobi demo but had traveled all the way from Somalia to organize it.

This claim may anger Al Shabbab members and since majority of those who were arrested were of Somali origin, Al Shabbab may actually find it necessary to set up a real base in Kenya to give the government a real experience of what it feels like to have them in town. In an audio message circulated in the Internet, Al Shabbab’s leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane, also known as Sheik Mukhtar Abdirahman Abu Zubeyr, has promised that his forces will, this time, enter Kenya and cause trouble.

The situation is worsened by the fact that the US State Department and experts alike continue to theorize that Al Qaida is regrouping in both Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Under the circumstances, it may be smart for Al Qaida to begin setting up a new base in Kenya as US anti-terrorist work begins to focus on Yemen and the Horn of Africa. In the eyes of Al Qaida, the “ill treatment” of Muslims in Kenya is reason to prompt better ways of dealing with Kenya and a terrorist attack could be a better signal of things to come.

It is notable that last week, Mr. Leon Edward Panetta, the Head of the CIA, made a clandestine four day visit to Kenya to meet with both Prime Minister Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki. According to media sources, the CIA boss had carried a message to the effect that Al Qaida was regrouping at the Horn of Africa while he is reported to have made recommendations on what needs to be done to curb Al Qaida infiltration in Kenya.

“The CIA boss wanted to ask the country’s leadership to be tougher on terrorism and especially al-Qaeda, who America believes are rebuilding fast in the Horn of Africa”, the East African Standard wrote. It continued: “This follows reports that al Qaeda fighters have begun arriving in Somalia to carry out war against states seen by Islamists to be supported by the West”.

For the terrorists, there may be no reason for treating the Kenyan government as a regime that may change its attitude towards Al Qaida and for this reason, it may be time for Kenya to pay through a well coordinated terrorist attack. The terrorists may decide to strike before June when sources say that President Barack Obama may travel to Kenya on his way to South Africa to open the World Cup. The period between now and June is therefore critical. Attacking when Obama is in the country could be the best propaganda coup for Al Qaida.

Sadly, there is absolutely nothing the Kenyan government will do to stop Al Qaida attacks in Kenya because the government does not have both the intelligence and capacity to stop Al Qaida. The terrorist Movement has defeated attempts by governments like Pakistan, Yemen, Afghanistan and even the United States from stopping their activities and if truth were to be told, Kenya has absolutely no chance even if the United States decides to help. At a time when various commentators are decrying the porousness of our boarders, any sensible observer will agree that the Coalition government will be helpless when Al Qaida decides to strike and this is why Kenyans should brace for an attack sooner rather than later.

The government’s Security intelligence could not even sniff that Al Faisal (a person on US List of terror suspects and who was moving around with his legal Passport) had slipped into the country when security was asleep so how will the Kibaki/Raila government be able to tell that terrorists have sneaked in with a deadly bomb?

To be honest, we are at the mercy of the terrorists and the best the country can do is to wait for the time they will strike and then deal with the casualties. The best preparation the government can make now is to equip hospitals (especially in Nairobi) and prepare paramedics for an emergency occasioned by a huge bomb blast somewhere in the middle of Nairobi city, the seat of Kenya government. The time is ticking…

Okoth Osewe

January 27, 2010 Posted by makozewe | News & Analysis | 8 Comments